Kunpeng Project
Starting from 2024, our country will completely usher in an era of surplus real estate, and the real estate you see now is likely to be the best in the next few years, and the situation may only be worse in the future.
This year, I went home for the Chinese New Year, and my eyes were full of crowded communities, but I was cold and lonely, and I felt cold in my heart. Look at the occupancy rate, barely three or four percent, most of them are retired old men and old ladies, their fun is to sit at the door every day to bask in the sun and chat. My buddy said with a bitter face that the house I bought in my hometown county 6 years ago fell by half, and 500,000 yuan was gone.
The underlying logic of the county house, I have a bad mouth, but there is always a stubborn jump into the fire pit. At the beginning, some wanted to get married, some wanted to be cheap, and some wanted to get a place for their children. But no matter what the original intention, in the end, everyone regretted it. It's not that I didn't remind you, don't think that you can't afford to buy a house in a first- or second-tier city, so you go to the county seat to join in the fun. The dream of retiring and returning to your hometown should be dispelled as soon as possible. Don't think about being 60 when you're 20. As for the so-called "investment and self-occupation", in most counties, it is simply a joke.
Why do I say that? Let's look at ** first,On January 17, the country's new population data was released. In 2023, the population will decrease by 2.08 million compared to the previous year, with a natural growth rate of -148‰。In 2022, the natural growth rate is -060, which is directly doubled this year. This shocking number is most likely just the beginning. The population now is not a burden, but a resource. Big cities have begun to rob people, but most of the counties are basically unarmed in the war for people. In the county, young people are leaving, and the number of newborns is not increasing, who will the house be sold to in the future? Pick-up man in**? Once there are not enough people, how can you play this game of drumming and passing flowers? If it is said that big cities can still flourish because of more people and less land, then the county town with continuous population loss can only watch the first brick in the end!
And another? Nowadays, people are crowded to provincial capitals and big cities, and people go to high places, this is human nature. Someone asked me if the county has built a high-speed railway, is this a good thing, can you follow up? Don't be stupid, buying a house with the high-speed rail is being a leek for the developer. The high-speed rail does not pull people to the county, but makes it more convenient for the county people to go out, and it is to divert the flow to the big city.
Therefore, if your home is not one of the top 100 counties, I advise you to discourage the idea of buying a house. But some people say, what if you don't buy it? Will the housing prices in the county rise? I've got two tricks to teach you. The first trick, is this place more lively or deserted during the Chinese New Year? If the Chinese New Year is lively, it means that the young people have gone out to work and will not come back until the end of the year. Don't touch this kind of place; If it is usually lively, but it is cold during the New Year, it means that there are many young people here, and the housing prices are dramatic, which is worth considering. The second trick is to go to the night market on weekdays to see if there are many young faces. If the streets are all young people in their twenties, the economy of this place is not bad, and you can buy a house.
At the end of the day, the most important thing is that there are too many houses. How many houses are there in China? To what extent have Chinese houses piled up? Although there are no clear statistics on the official figures,But some people estimate that there are about 600 million houses in the country, and listen, 600 million, not 600 million houses, and a house can live at least 10 people, so if you calculate it, 600 million houses can live 60 to 8 billion people. In this way, even if we do not build new houses in the future, our existing inventory is enough to meet the housing needs of domestic residents. Therefore, it is an indisputable fact that supply exceeds demand.
On the one hand, it is the policy boost, such as the strategy of destocking the shed, which makes a large number of people squeeze into the housing market with demolition compensation; On the other hand, housing prices have been rising all the way, and there is a lot of investment demand, and some people have bought several units. But time has passed, economic growth has slowed down in recent years, coupled with the impact of masks that has lasted for three years, as long as I observe carefully, in the streets and alleys, shops change faster than women change clothes。Today's economic environment is no longer what it used to be. In the absence of financial support, the willingness to buy a house has cooled sharply. This is the true portrayal of the current real estate market, oversupply, housing prices down, has become an indisputable fact.
If it weren't for policy containment, the real estate situation would have been even more severe. A house is for living, not for speculation. Recently, I heard that in Guangdong, some people are willing to give away their houses for free, as long as you are willing to repay the loan. It's helpless to think about it, who would make such a decision if it wasn't cornered. Tell everyone, in the housing market in 2024, my suggestion is to wait and see, if you really want to buy, buy a good location, don't try to buy a cheap one with a poor location, you can't sell it in the future. Or rent a house, save the down payment first, and life will be easy. When it comes to buying a house, you have to see the right time, don't be impulsive. Now there are so many houses, don't worry, take your time.