**From @VisualChina.
In January this year, polysilicon, silicon wafers, and cells** all stopped falling or stabilized and rebounded, but the most watched modules still "fell endlessly". In February, the trend of polysilicon, wafers, and cells** basically continued the trend of January, but the fluctuation range became smaller, and the news of module price increases finally came out after the Spring Festival, which aroused great concern in the industry.
In terms of polysilicon, both n-type and p-type increased significantly in January (see PV industry chain in January**: polysilicon stabilized and rebounded, modules continued to slump), and in February, due to the Spring Festival holiday, the scale was small, so the fluctuation was small until the middle of the year**. At the end of the month, according to the latest transaction of solar-grade polysilicon released by the Silicon Branch of China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association on February 28, the weekly transaction rate of n-type polysilicon was in the range of 71-7.30,000 tons of the average price of 7210,000 tons, compared to 7 at the end of JanuaryThe average price of 190,000 tons increased slightly by 03%；The transaction rate of monocrystalline dense material is 59-6.40,000 tons, the average price is 607,000 tons, compared to 5 at the end of JanuaryThe average price of 930,000 tons increased by 24%；The trading range of n-type granular silicon is 60-6.40,000 tons, the average transaction price is 610,000 tons, the same as at the end of January. Looking at the overall trend,The maximum transaction price of polysilicon has not changed much, and the minimum transaction price has increased, and the average price has remained stable or continued**。In addition, with the price increase of P-type polysilicon materials and the narrowing of NP price spreads, the Silicon Industry Branch analyzed that the supply and demand of N-type polysilicon are still tight, and the supply and demand of N-type polysilicon materials are still relatively high, and the cost pressure on downstream enterprises has been relatively high.
Silicon wafersaspects, as mentioned aboveThe phenomenon of "NP upside down" continuesAccording to the latest transaction volume released by the Silicon Industry Branch on February 29, the average transaction price of n-type 182 silicon wafers dropped to 198 yuan tablets, down 2% from the level at the beginning of the month; The average transaction price of M10 mono-Si wafers was 205 yuan film, an increase of 2 from the level at the beginning of the month5%；The average transaction price of G12 mono-Si wafers was 289 yuan piece, the same as the average price at the beginning of the month.
From the analysis of supply and demand, according to the data of the Silicon Industry Branch,Affected by factors such as intergenerational replacement of production capacity and market share of enterprises, the output of silicon wafers reached 63 in February97GW, a record monthly production recordBut on the other hand, it is also close to the cash cost, and the large increase in production will inevitably lead to the problem of inventory accumulation, and the main reason for the n-type 182 silicon wafer is that the company takes the initiative to reduce prices and clear inventory. For the market outlook, the Silicon Industry Branch reminded that if polysilicon continues to reduce or wafers are further reduced, it cannot be ruled out that wafer manufacturers will passively reduce production.
In terms of cells, according to data released by Infolink, the weekly average price of mono PERC (182mm) at the end of the month was 039 yuan w, up 2 from the beginning of the month6%；The average weekly price of mono PERC (210mm) at the end of the month was 038 yuan w, basically the same as the beginning of the month; The weekly average price of Topcon at the end of the month was 047 yuan w, also basically the same as the beginning of the month. Infolink said in its ** analysis,Recently, there has been a phase of cell tightness, which has led manufacturers to try to increase the number of cell prices, but whether they can be traded ultimately depends on the acceptance of module manufacturers, and when the component has not been significantly flipped, it is difficult to achieve rapid improvement of the battery. SolarZoom also believes that with the gradual digestion of battery inventory in the early stage and the operation of battery factories maintaining low operating rates, there have been signs of tightening battery supply and demand recently, and battery manufacturers are gradually trying to increase **, but due to the strong wait-and-see sentiment of downstream modules, the transaction price increase is not obvious. The analysis also said that the market will increase overall volume in March, and some battery manufacturers have revealed plans to return to full capacity operation in March.
In terms of modules, which have attracted the most attention, there is finally news of price increases after the Spring Festival. According to the SolarZoom think tank,After the holiday, the module ** in the market will be raised (or brewed) by 002 yuan w of large factories further increasedHowever, due to the fact that most of the orders in the execution are already signed, and the new landing orders are limited, soIt remains to be seen whether the transaction will be coherent
Judging from the module bidding projects since late February, especially the centralized procurement of the first batch of photovoltaic modules for the investment and development of Yunnan Energy Investment New Energy announced on March 1, the bids of more than 10 bidding companies are higher than 09 yuan w, the average ** is 0952 yuan w, the first winning candidate Yingli Energy's lowest single watt** is 0918 yuan, which is indeed lower than 0 in the January bidding9 yuan w (p-type components even down to 0..)8 yuan w) has increased.
For the market outlook, the Silicon Industry Branch believes that the excellent performance of distributed PV can promote the recovery of the domestic module market in the first quarter; Infolink said that the overall demand in March may still be stable, and if you want to form a reversal, you need to wait for the overall demand to rise; SolarZoom also believes that in the case of manufacturers' increases, whether the actual transaction of modules (especially for large-scale ground projects) depends on the acceptance of downstream terminals.
In addition, as one of the most noteworthy trends this year, the scheduling and trading of the photovoltaic manufacturing industry chain in February also reflects the current situation and trend of generational replacement. Many industry insiders and research institutions believe that the overall market share of N-type cells will reach nearly 8% this year, and the market share of P-type will shrink to more than 2% (according to data from the China Photovoltaic Industry Association, the market share of N-type cells (TOPCon+HJT) will be about 25 by the end of 20236%）。According to relevant news, the N-type materials of polysilicon mainly come from the head enterprises, with the proportion of N-type materials of the four leading enterprises accounting for about 50%-70%, and the industry as a whole is about 40%, and it is expected that there will still be a tight balance between supply and demand in the short term, and the production capacity of the head enterprises may be further released in the second quarter. In terms of silicon wafers, the proportion of n-type silicon wafers has increased rapidly since the fourth quarter of last year, and it may have reached more than 60% at present, and the proportion of some leading companies exceeds 90%. In terms of batteries, since the second half of last year, the N-type TOPCon production capacity has increased rapidly, and the production capacity has reached 500GW by the end of the year, and it is expected that the effective production capacity will account for more than 70% of the scheduled production from the second quarter of this year. In terms of modules, the demand for N-type in domestic projects has increased significantly, from less than 10% in Q1 2023 to nearly 70% in December, and is expected to account for more than 70% of TOPCon module demand in 2024. (This article was first published.)onTitanium**app, AuthorHu Jiameng, editLiu Yangxue
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