Take a keen look at the global hot spots and discuss the international situation. In February, the Volkswagen Global Forum column focused on these hot topics:
Global security issues continue to attract attention. On the one hand, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine and the Palestinian-Israeli conflict continue to ferment, as well as NATO's "super-scale" military exercises, US air strikes on Syria and Iran and other incidents have made the situation more unstable; On the other hand, there are constant calls for "stop the war", and the MUAN will call for working together to overcome the lose-lose situation, but the parties are clearly divided on many issues, and the dawn of global security is hard.
Focus on important elections. Recently, Prabowo announced that he won the Indonesia **, how to develop friendly and cooperative relations with China in the future? El Salvador *** has recently ended, and Bukele will start his next term, how will it affect Latin America**?
In addition, there are hot spots such as the establishment of diplomatic relations between Cuba and South Korea and the impasse in the expansion of South Korean Medical University.
We invited experts to comment on and analyze these topics and review them together.
1. Pay attention to important elections.
February 15 3rd Edition How Bukele's big win will affect Latin America**.
Fu Liyuan, Institute of Latin American and Caribbean Studies, China Institute of International Studies.
El Salvador *** recently ended, and the 42-year-old Bukele is about to start his next term. Since coming to power in 2019, Bukele has created the "Bukele Model" with his unique governing style, and has become a leading figure in Latin America. Under his belt, aviator sunglasses, leather jackets and baseball caps became the new fashion in Latin American political circles, and his popularity in some countries was even higher than that of his own leaders. The David Rockefeller Center for Latin American Studies at Harvard University said bluntly that Bukele is one of the most respected politicians in the region since Chavez.
1. Everyone wants to be him. However, Bukele needs to make up for the shortcomings of his economic performance, and the huge foreign debt and soaring domestic prices have become thorny challenges. In Latin America, where political and social development is characterized by significant pluralism, the significance of the "Bukele model" for other countries is different.
On February 23, the 4th edition of China-Indonesia friendly and cooperative relations entered a new stage.
Liu Xiaowei, China Institute of International Studies.
On February 14, Indonesia held a **, and the current Defense Minister Prabowo declared the victory, becoming the leader of the largest country in Southeast Asia. Prabowo has positioned himself as the "heir" of Jokowi, and has repeatedly stated that he will continue to implement Jokowi's governing policy, promote the country into the "fast lane of development", and strive to realize the vision of "Indonesia 2045". China and Indonesia are both large developing countries and important emerging market countries, with a wide range of common interests and a vital future. The foreign policy concept of economic development as the core orientation has determined that Prabowo will continue to maintain friendship with China.
2. Focus on global security issues.
February 1, 5th edition NATO's "super-large" military exercises will only make Europe more insecure.
Lu Yunmou, Institute of European Studies, China Institute of Contemporary International Relations.
On January 24, NATO's "Steadfast Defender 2024" military exercise was officially launched, which is the largest military exercise in NATO since the end of the Cold War. As the Ukraine crisis is about to usher in its second anniversary and the security environment in Europe is deteriorating day by day, NATO is "stirring up trouble", showing its intention to confront Russia-for-tat, "boost morale" internally, and appease Ukraine. However, NATO's "big flex of muscles" this time will not only not satisfy the desire and demand of European countries for a "sense of security", but will further narrow the distance between Europe and the conflict.
February 7 4 How the US air strikes on Syria and Iran will affect the prospects of the Middle East.
Yao Jinxiang, China Institute of International Studies.
On February 2, the U.S. military carried out airstrikes on targets of pro-Iranian militant groups in Syria and Iraq, killing dozens**.
The attack can be interpreted in part as an "election maneuver" by Biden to show his image of defending the national interests of the United States. At the same time, there are diplomatic considerations behind the airstrike. This airstrike is the beginning of the strategic game between the United States and Iran, and it may have a more far-reaching impact on the regional situation in the future: it will further weaken the influence and moral position of the United States in the Middle East; There is a risk of expansion of the conflict in the Middle East; Influencing the role of the United Nations.
February 8 4th Edition The gap between the "perception of crisis" between European political elites and the public tends to widen.
Dong Yifan, China Institute of Contemporary International Relations.
Recently, the European Union announced 50 billion euros in financial assistance to Ukraine, and at the same time, the wave of agricultural *** that has spread from Germany to many European countries since December 2023 is still surging.
From the perspective of the political elite, the current focus is still on crises with "profound geopolitical implications" such as the Ukraine crisis and the Palestinian-Israeli conflict. Correspondingly, the pressure on the livelihood of ordinary people in Europe, represented by farmers, is real and increasing, and although the reasons for agriculture in various countries are diverse, they all point to their poor living conditions and the "non-grounding" and "inaction" of the EU and member states. The tension generated by the "crisis perception" disparity will have more shocks on Europe's future political agenda.
February 22 5th edition of the Mu'an Club Observation: Working together can transcend the lose-lose.
Dong Yifan, China Institute of Contemporary International Relations.
From February 16 to 18, the 60th Munich Security Conference was held in Munich, the capital of Bavaria, Germany. Germany and the European Union, the hosts of this meeting, are the "losers" whose own interests and development space have been constantly damaged under the "lose-lose" scenario, and they are deeply anxious about the future prospects of international politics. In order to seek a win-win situation and avoid a lose-lose situation, all countries in the world should work together to revitalize multilateralism, strengthen solidarity and response, and promote globalization in a more inclusive direction.
3. Overview of the world.
February 26 4th Edition What the establishment of diplomatic relations with South Korea will bring to the Cuban economy.
Zhang Jieyu, China Institute of International Studies.
On February 14, 2024, Cuba and South Korea announced the establishment of diplomatic relations. The establishment of diplomatic relations this time was "sudden", and both Cuba and South Korea kept it a high degree of secrecy and conducted closed-door negotiations. After Cuba became the 193rd country with diplomatic relations with South Korea, South Korea has completed the "last piece of the puzzle" in Latin America and the Caribbean. The establishment of diplomatic relations between Cuba and the ROK this time actually reflects Cuba's pragmatic style of domestic and foreign policy since Raul Castro. The main tone of Cuban-Korean relations is more related to economic interests, and the economies of the two countries are very complementary.
February 28 5th edition of the Korean Medical University expansion impasse to be resolved.
Chen Xiangyang, Director of the Korean Peninsula Research Center of the China Institute of Contemporary International Relations.
On February 6, South Korea officially announced the expansion plan of medical universities, which plans to increase the annual enrollment quota of medical universities in the country from the current 3,058 to 5,038 in five years. After the announcement of the expansion plan of the medical university, it led to a strike of South Korean doctors and medical students, and the South Korean ** office warned that it would not make the slightest concession to the plan to expand the enrollment of 2,000 medical students. South Korea** and the doctor group are in a fierce confrontation, mainly because the two sides have different medical diagnoses, different ideas for medical reform, and strong attitudes towards medical negotiations.