Kunpeng Project
The impact and evaluation of the new program of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences on fertility on intergenerational support
How serious is the birth problem now? This can be seen from a series of sources.
The most recent total population of India is 142.8 billion, more than 18 million in our country. Let's not forget, India is less than a third the size of us. I don't know if you have noticed, but some of the scholars who once worried that population growth would drag down the country's development are now silent.
This is because India will start with 7The growth rate of 2% is the fastest rate in the world, two percentage points more than us. The Bank of India recently indicated that India's economy will still be bucking its growth rate of more than 7% by 2025. India's economy is growing rapidly and has not been affected by its population, and many multinational companies have chosen to invest in the country, simply because of its young people and large workforce.
In stark contrast, in coastal industrial cities such as Suzhou and Dongguan, where export-oriented industries are closed, foreign companies have closed or withdrawn. In the words of professionals, they are unwilling, but they want to move their production bases to India, Southeast Asia, etc., where there are enough human resources to allow them to earn more. This scene is undoubtedly a resounding slap in the face, India will give up the world's largest population advantage, this is a cruel reality, not a disaster, only young people, is the future of this country.
If the disparity in population is not important, the tendency of an aging population and low fertility is a more serious problem. Life expectancy in India is 284 years old, and by 2021, the number has reached 388. It is likely that there will be some growth in the next two years. Think about it, who has a better chance of surviving? This is obvious. After two liberalizations of second and third children in 2016 and 2021, China's population has not seen the "rapid population growth" situation that those experts feared before, in fact, the more they want children, the more they don't want children, resulting in 18.83 million in 2016 and 9.02 million in 2023.
In fact, China has determined the trend of negative growth of newborns, resulting in a result that China's neonatal replacement rate is only 1%, far less than the neonatal replacement rate of 21% is a low fertility rate in the true sense of the word. To put it simply, the population is decreasing year by year, the proportion of young people in the population is decreasing, and the proportion of the elderly in the population is increasing year by year. There is no doubt that the burden on the country and families will increase day by day, which will have a devastating impact on the long-term development of the country.
To this end, population experts, scholars, TV stations, TV stations and other well-known news organizations across the country have made suggestions, and it is also clear that in the long run, the situation of population decline is bound to change, which is a question related to China's future national fortunes, and it is also a strategic issue.
Things have happened, regret is useless, for the very low birth rate, in the final analysis, the bell still needs to be tied to the bell, work the policy, the most important thing is to do a good job in the follow-up birth support policy, so that everyone dares to give birth and want to give birth. We can see that in this year's "** Financial and Economic Work Conference", it is clearly pointed out that it is necessary to "further improve China's family planning policy system." Just a few words, but contains a lot of information, "People**" has a detailed interpretation of this point, from this point, we can see that what is being done also represents, ** is vigorously supporting childbirth! The most important of these are:
1.Pay attention to establishing and improving the long-term system of grassroots party building. Strengthen overall planning, strengthen top-level design, summarize and promote local practices and experiences in a timely manner, and promote relevant policy formulation at the national level;
2.Formulate corresponding support policies as soon as possible. In 2024, we will further strengthen cooperation, further improve the maternity leave and treatment guarantee mechanism, strengthen housing tax and other support measures, strengthen the supply of high-quality educational resources, and create a good employment environment conducive to childbirth.
3.Promote inclusive care. By 2024, with the support of ** financial funds, we will gradually reduce the operating costs of the custodian and expand the number of inclusive care. Establish a sound old-age security system, improve the standards and norms of old-age institutions, strengthen the joint supervision of various departments, and promote the healthy development of old-age institutions. Promote the construction of the legal system of pension insurance, and ensure the implementation and improvement of pension insurance laws and regulations.
4.Create a good social environment conducive to motherhood. During various festivals, it is necessary to continue to vigorously promote and popularize the new civilization of marriage and family, eliminate the old concepts of marriage and bride price, and promote the formation of a healthy concept of marriage, family, and childbirth.
From top to bottom, bottom to top, top to bottom, all very well done. To be more precise, in layman's terms, it means that major issues such as housing, education, employment, and trusteeship that everyone is concerned about need to be dealt with with by "making moves". The house is for everyone, education is for the quality of children, work, and finances for the family, and the nursery is for the time spent not taking care of children. From a national perspective, by 2024, the country will start to fully implement the "fetal protection" policy.
If all goes well, at least eighty percent of the population problem can be solved, and I think our fertility rate will gradually decline. Why do you say that another "new program" has been introduced to promote fertility, or that it will be endorsed by three generations?
China Business Businessscope, a subsidiary of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, published on February 28 an article entitled "Expert Advice: Implement a One-Child Policy for the 'Post-70s' and 'Post-80s'.""Special Indemnity"In the article, it is mentioned that the "China Pension Development Report 2023" proposes:
1.Retirement pensions should be provided to those who have benefited from family planning and who are able to contribute to the increase in fertility in the future.
2.In the "post-70s", "post-80s" and other fertility groups, in order to promote fertility, pension subsidies are given to "post-90s" families with multiple children.
3.According to the report's estimates, the post-70s and post-80s generations need a total subsidy of 800 billion yuan according to the subsidy standard of 2,000 yuan and the standard of 2% of the national average social wage, and the new children born after 2016 will be subsidized according to the amount, and 200 billion yuan of financial subsidies will be required for 2,000 yuan per year. There is a total of 1 trillion yuan in subsidies.
Why do three generations need to be subsidized? This report also clearly pointed out that it made a great contribution after the family planning period (in fact, I think the post-60s generation will also be greatly affected and will be of great help to fertility). Through the pension subsidy for migrant workers, it can reduce the psychological burden of raising children, narrow the gap between the rich and the poor, solve the pension problem of low-income families, and promote the development of individual pension.
This is only the subsidy of 1,000-2,000 yuan a year proposed by Liang Jianzhang and others, as well as the state's comprehensive support in the fields of housing, education, employment and childcare. If all these factors are combined, the downward trend in the birth rate may soon be reversed.
Ultimately, one asks, is this kind of thing called "reporting" acceptable?
As we all know, there are three expert groups in the industry, namely Ren Zeping and Liang Jianzhang, and the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, who published the "China Pension Development Report 2023", two of which are non-** organizations, and the last one is ** institutions. In 2020, Ren Zeping's research group published a "Proposal to Let Go First for Three Children: Chinese Population Report 2020", and in May 2021, it officially introduced a policy that a couple can have three children. From this point of view, any proposal that is beneficial to the country is acceptable.