Text丨Zhang Ju
Editor丨Xie Changyan
After the Spring Festival, under the offensive of the Shanghai Composite Index with a wave of eight consecutive yangs, the index once successfully regained the 3,000-point integer mark, and then due to the lack of incremental funds, the secondary market fell into ** again; In this context, all kinds of signs show that after another 3,000 points, the public offering will increase the enthusiasm of long, and AI, innovative drugs, and smart cars will become their sword direction.
The latest weekly calculation report from the Haomai Research Center shows that although the public offering has reduced its position to a certain extent, the current ** still reaches 9057%, the current public offering is generally at a high historical median level; This week, the top three Shenwan first-class industries with the highest proportion of public offerings are electronics, food and beverage, and pharmaceutical biology, respectively. 81% and 877%。
In a written reply to this magazine, Lei Tao, manager of Debang, emphasized that he is optimistic about scientific and technological innovation: "The release of SORA shows an explosive effect, showing that the progress of AI in multimodality has reached a new level. The promotion of computing power, first-class applications and other fields has made related companies sought after by the market. If you look at it for a long time, the growth of science and technology will still be a wave performance this year, and grasping the rhythm of the first is the core difficulty. The inflection point of the semiconductor cycle, the progress of AI in North America, and the progress of AI in China are all expected to have good investment opportunities during the year, and the rhythm of exploring and grasping opportunities will become the key to investment this year. ”
After the holiday, the public offering remained high as a whole
Overall, it may be at a historically high median level
After the Spring Festival holiday, with the increase in market investment sentiment and the expansion of the money-making effect, it is logical for public offering managers to be promoted or kept high.
If you follow the report of the four seasons, the average of all comparable ** is about 80 in the fourth quarter44%: The average of the open type rose to 8969%, and the average of hybrid open **rises to 79.08%。So after a large increase in January this year and the rebound of the Shanghai Composite Index before and after the Spring Festival, what is the general level of the current public offering?
According to the last two estimation reports released by the Haomai** Research Center around the Spring Festival, especially the high *** has remained at a historically high level, but it is about 91 from the pre-holiday ** time15% slightly to 9057%；In terms of types, although there is also a slight decrease, the latest ordinary **type** is estimated to be about 9220%, the calculation of partial stock hybrid ** is about 9017%, still above the high water level of ninety percent.
Judging from the estimation report, the peak value of the estimation appeared at the end of the first quarter of 2021, when the value reached 9323%；The lowest value since the third quarter of 2017 was in the second quarter of 2019, when the estimated value was 8416%。
Of course, there will be a certain difference between the calculation and the real data, and in actual combat, there is also a situation where the product redemption volume is passively raised, so the overall situation does not represent all individuals. However, observing the individual ** situation from the surface to the point can generally confirm the enthusiasm for the gradual recovery of the current public offering.
This journal used wind to count the ranking of active equity classes in the past month, as of February 26, the top three were Debang Xinxing value A (1993%), Changsheng Internet + A (18.94%), Sino Analytica positive return a (17.51%)。
Taking the value of Debang Xinxing as an example, the first four seasons of last year were as high as 9277%, reasoning, the four quarters of last year's heavy industry and ** basically biased towards the pharmaceutical sector, and the top ten heavy stocks on December 31 performed unevenly during the year, but the retracement targets were controlled within 20%. As of February 26, the Class A share of this ** had a net growth rate of approximately 4 for the year94%, ranking 82nd in its category**. Judging from this, there is a high probability that the ** is still maintaining a high ** operation.
Standing at the present point in time, the pharmaceutical sector focuses on two aspects, one is the stable demand for out-of-hospital and in-hospital drugs; The first is to look for phased opportunities for over-falling in the early stage. The ** manager of the ** Jie Shiqi replied to this magazine.
This month, 25 new ** funds were closed ahead of schedule
Chen Ying, Qi Fu Peng and other famous generals appear in the proposed list
Not only does the continuous high operation reflect the current public offering attitude, but also gratifying news comes from the new market after the holiday: According to a certain statistics, since February, 25 ** have been closed in advance. In terms of scale, the overall scale of the above 25 ** reached 2256.4 billion yuan. Among them, 3 ** scale exceeds 3 billion yuan, 14 ** scale is distributed between 100 million yuan and 1 billion yuan, and 8 ** scale is less than 100 million yuan. In this camp, equity products account for 60%.
Looking further at the products currently being released in the file, last year's **type** champion Chen Ying's new work Golden Eagle Technology Zhiyuan Mix is impressively listed. In an in-depth dialogue with this magazine at the end of last year, he emphasized that AI is cyclical for more than 5 to 10 years, and the dividend direction opportunity may be in ** and non-ferrous metals.
In a written reply to this magazine, Chen Ying emphasized: "In terms of plate selection, we still continue to pay attention to the scientific and technological innovation sector with artificial intelligence and virtual reality as the main line. The emergence of SORA is the emergence of AI technology in ChatGPT35 After another iconic upgrade, it means that the machine has begun to have a certain understanding of complex spatial and temporal interactions. We always believe that there is the most suitable soil for the growth of AI technology in China, and AI will also be combined with various applications to greatly improve productivity. With the launch of VisionPro, we believe that the virtual reality ecosystem will develop and prosper rapidly, bringing more adaptable applications to the hardware, thereby further increasing the value that the hardware brings to customers. ”
Smart cars, consumption recovery, high-end equipment manufacturing, ** and other sectors are also in line with our current investment framework, we will deepen the relevant sectors, and strive to find the most cost-effective sub-sectors and **. At the same time, he emphasized.
Judging from the name of Celgene and the ** contract, it is not difficult to judge that the company and himself are full of confidence in technology stocks. It is worth noting that at the end of the fourth quarter of last year, the total scale of ** assets under his management was about 792.7 billion yuan, considering the current market recovery and SORA leading the technology stocks to set off another climax, Chen Ying may use the new ** initial offering to achieve a management scale of more than 10 billion yuan.
In addition to Chen Ying, in the list of proposed managers of the latest products, another noteworthy is the famous general Qi Lianpeng of UBS SDIC. According to the data of Tiantian.com, his cumulative tenure so far has been close to 14 years, and at the same time, the total scale of his current assets and the best return during his tenure have both exceeded 100, which are 1401.7 billion and 12421%。
Judging from the performance of the products under management this year, in the same time period mentioned above, although the highest is less than two points, all the ** managed by him have achieved positive returns. In reply to this magazine, Qi Lianpeng emphasized: "If you lower your expectations and re-evaluate, you will find that there are many assets to choose from in the current market. In the past, we may not think that 20%-30% growth is high growth, but now I think that twice the GDP growth rate is high growth. On the basis of this cognition, we prefer companies with more than ten times PE and high growth, and we will find that there are actually many choices in the current market; In addition, another selection criterion is to have a good cash flow, which is more in line with our investment criteria if there is a dividend basis. At the same time, stock selection should be more subdivided and sinking, there is still room for the ceiling, and growth should be sustainable. ”
In addition, the famous general Wang Guobin's Quanguo** also has a new product that will be issued at the end of next month, but this time it will be a bond**.
Research combined with repurchase announcements ** public offering ideas
Auto parts track-related enterprises lead the way in "favored".
When fighting for 3,000 points again, what changes have been made in the actual combat of the public offering in the secondary market? Although it is a window period for financial report disclosure in the near future, it is worth analyzing the current thinking in combination with the public offering research and shareholder changes in the repurchase announcement of listed companies.
First of all, looking at the public offering research, wind shows that since February, the research of public offering ** companies has not been affected by the Spring Festival holiday, 11 companies have conducted more than 30 surveys, and the top three companies have exceeded 50, namely Harvest 56, Bosera 52, and Huaxia 52.
From the specific point of view, as one of the leading auto parts companies, Sanhua Intelligent Control's research has attracted many public and private equity celebrities, and Zhao Yi, the former champion of Quanguo, was the first to be promoted. Judging from the research records, the public offering is quite concerned about the progress of the company's diversified business, for example, when answering the progress of the robot, the company introduced that the bionic robot industry is currently in a period of rapid development, which is an opportunity for China's robot industry, and the market prospect of the machine generation is broad and the certainty is high. Our company mainly focuses on electromechanical actuators, and through its own advantages, it cooperates with customers' product development, trial production and adjustment in all aspects to design electromechanical actuator products that meet the needs of bionic robots, and the company is very confident in this.
Judging from the public offering stars, the one who has been on the list more than once in this statistical period is Lao Jienan, a famous player of China Universal Wealth. The well-known veteran Hu Xinwei has been in office for more than eight and a half years, and his current total assets as of December 31 are about 15.6 billion yuan. Judging from the research records, in addition to the investigation of Sanhua Intelligent Control, another company he investigated during the above period was Lizhong Group, and coincidentally, the company was also a company from the auto parts track.
Judging from the research records, Lao Jienan may still analyze the company's changes through financial data from the fundamentals. When answering the gross profit margin of the company's products, the company replied: "The gross profit margin of the company's products in the first three quarters was 3239%, an increase of 323%, mainly due to the company's adherence to the strategy of technological innovation, continuous increase in investment in new product research and development, and continuous improvement of product performance by optimizing product structure and process, implementing cost reduction and efficiency improvement and lean business improvement; At the same time, the company's main raw materials IC chips, IGBT, capacitors and other procurement ** fell year-on-year, the unit cost decreased, and the gross profit margin increased. ”
In the earlier period, the repurchase tide of listed companies also ** the latest list of the top ten shareholders of tradable shares, compared with the ** four seasons report can see the new entry and change of the star ** manager. According to the incomplete statistics of the announcement of this magazine, the recent announcement has the ideas of Yang Hao, Yang Ruiwen, Li Xiaoxing, Qiu Dongrong and other top public offerings.
First of all, Yang Hao, one of the three musketeers of the Bank of Communications, according to the announcement issued by the retail sector company Jiajiayue on February 20, as of February 5, the new vitality of the Bank of Communications under his management has entered the company about 1333280,000 shares, which appeared in the fifth place in the list of shareholders. It is worth mentioning that after Yang Hao reduced the relatively focused management of the products under management, the performance of the new vitality of the Bank of Communications has improved significantly, especially the annualized income index that can better reflect the strength of long-distance running, and the latest with 10With an annualized return of 57%, it ranks 64th out of more than 1,100 peers**.
According to the announcement issued by auto parts company Bethel in early February, as of the end of January, the Invesco Great Wall New Energy Industry managed by him and the E Fund competitive advantage enterprise managed by E Fund Feng Bo joined hands to increase the position of the stock.
Looking at Yinhua's top star Li Xiaoxing again, according to the company's announcement in early February, as of the end of January, the well-known massager company listed on the Science and Technology Innovation Board has released the latest top ten shareholder shareholdings, of which the one-year holding period of Yinhua Xinxuan managed by him is among them; Judging from the heavy stocks previously held, the style of the ** is mainly based on the liquor track, and this "point-to-point" layout may mean the expansion of the scope of stock selection.
Finally, looking at the widely watched Zhonggeng star Qiu Dongrong, from the repurchase announcement, he has made trade-offs in the adjustment of the portfolio: On the one hand, he has slightly reduced his position in Antu Biotech, and on the other hand, he favors Bozhong Seiko, which wears the halo of "industrial digitalization". As of Feb. 6, the three stocks he manages are all new.
The use of scientific and technological innovation to restore the net value of the portfolio has gradually become a consensus
**In the game, the focus is on mining the long-term thinking of the institution
From the above analysis, it can be seen that at present, in the rapid stage before and after the Spring Festival, the defensive ideas such as high dividends and Chinese prefixes have temporarily died down.
Xiao Ruijin, manager of Bosera Star**, who has had an in-depth dialogue with this magazine, emphasized that the first half of 2024 is still a window period for AI investment. He further explained: "In terms of A-shares, the communications, computers, media and electronics sectors launched by AI will be among the top gainers in 2023, among which sub-sectors such as optical modules will rise greatly, but the performance will be better. After the overall drawdown in early 2024, the valuation cost performance of some sectors is also more prominent, for example, the average trading of the AI server sub-industry is within 15 times of the price-earnings ratio in 2024, which has a certain valuation advantage. After a period of **, optical modules also trade at an average price-to-earnings ratio of about 25 times in 2024, and the valuation bubble is not significant. Since the beginning of 2024, the United States, Japan, and Taiwan, China's artificial intelligence icons** have risen significantly, and their valuations have been significantly higher than those of A-share comparable companies, so the valuations of A-share related companies also have certain international comparative advantages. ”
From a divergent point of view, Lei Zhiyong, manager of Da Mo Digital Economy, also said that from an industrial perspective, first of all, the overall artificial intelligence model has made great progress; Secondly, overseas giants such as Nvidia and Microsoft, as well as domestic leading companies, are making efforts to enter the state of arms race and keep up with the trend of industrial innovation; Third, the current global social development is facing the bottleneck of aging and efficiency improvement, and technological breakthroughs are urgently needed to improve it. In this context, with the continuous progress and application of artificial intelligence technology, more investment opportunities will emerge in the future. The demand for artificial intelligence for the underlying training and inference computing power is huge, and the demand for computing resources and supporting infrastructure in the next few years is considerable, and the relevant companies in the field of computing power have the ability to land performance, with high certainty, combined with the current valuation and reasonable cost performance, and the computing power direction represented by optical modules is worth paying attention to.
Before the recent Shanghai Composite Index Balianyang, in fact, the direction of high dividends represented by coal has also been the focus of market attention. In the context of intensified market rotation and limited incremental funds this year, standing in the time dimension of the whole year, there may be opportunities for performance in the direction of high dividends or in the market.
In this regard, Wu Zhipeng, manager of star dividends, analyzed: "Recently, the adjustment of the dividend sector is mainly based on the transaction level, and the main reason is that there are too many short-term **. Coal, for example, has risen by more than 15% year-to-date, which has undoubtedly attracted a lot of market capital. When there are other hot spots in the market, these funds will also flow to related sectors, so the dividend sector has seen greater volatility recently. ”
However, in the long run, the allocation logic of the dividend sector has not changed. As a bond-like dividend yield asset, the 10-year Treasury yield is the pricing anchor of the dividend sector, which breaks through 2The 4% integer mark also makes dividend assets more attractive. He further emphasized.
(This article has been published in the March 2 issue of **Market Weekly, with the original title of "Fighting 3000 Points Again, Public Offering Continues to Be Active, and the Helmsman Focuses on AI, Smart Cars, Innovative Drugs, etc.") The ** mentioned in the article is only for example analysis and does not make a recommendation for buying and selling. ）