Pay attention to the risk of the high and pay attention to the support points
From the analysis of glassnode data, it can be seen that the on-chain fees** of Bitcoin fell again after the recovery, the on-chain activity decreased again, and the attention of funds fell. From the perspective of plates, the hot spots in the market have shifted, and meme tokens and old coins have still become a supplemental sector in recent days.
It can be seen from the net inflow of Bitcoin ETF funds that the net inflow of Bitcoin ETF funds is negative for the first time in recent times, and funds have begun to show signs of outflow, and there are certain signs of flight of funds on the Bitcoin chain. On the whole, there is overheating in the crypto market in the short term, and Bitcoin may have signs of ** in the short term.
BTC's rapid rise above $60,000 reflects the strong sentiment in the market. The huge amount of ** on February 29 constitutes a short-term sideways fluctuation range, breaking the upper and lower boundaries is to choose the direction at the H1 level, but the lower 57500 constitutes a support for buying.
As mentioned in the previous article, after the adjustment before the Spring Festival, the main logic of ** regressed to the net inflow of Bitcoin spot ETFs. At the same time, we point out that the bull market is bound to outperform expectations。Sure enough, Bitcoin continued to pull violently in the previous week, and continued to rise to 64,000 on the basis of the previous week's high of 53,000. Its kinetic energy is not insignificant.
It should be pointed out that although the main logic remains the same, due to the continuous rise of **, risks are also accumulating.
There are three main aspects of risk
First, the first grid will inevitably bring a stronger motivation to ship. The MVRV indicator for short-term investors is already close to 14. This is usually a sign to judge the top of a calf.
Second, Bitcoin spot ETFs maintained net inflows for a long time, with net outflows on March 2. If the net outflow is sustained, it will have a greater impact on confidence.
Third, more staking in the industry will be unlocked in March, which will also bring pressure.
Of course, warning risk does not represent a change in long-term direction. If there is a large downward adjustment, it is still a good opportunity to intervene. Technically, it is recommended to focus on the support near 58000 below.
The wait-and-see sentiment in the market grew
On March 3, the crypto market** did not show its strong market dominance due to the closure of the ETF market over the weekend. And the progress of the Genesis sell-off GBTC plan shows that it was last week.
Fourth, fifth, increased the share of selling.
Although this is no longer recognized by the market as affecting the growth of market buying sentiment under the bull market**, I personally believe that this may increase the wait-and-see attitude of investors to a certain extent. This is because data shows that "new entrants" have seen their trading volume decline for the first time in four months. Some friends also said in the group that the more they grow, the more panicked they become. According to data from The Block Pro, the adjusted on-chain trading volume of stablecoins fell sharply in February, falling to $632.4 billion, a decrease of 148%。In addition, the total on-chain transaction volume of Bitcoin and Ethereum increased by 3 per cent last month2% to $369 billion, with a slight decrease of 06%, and the on-chain transaction volume of Ethereum increased by 92%。The data shows that in the pastThe market heat in February was mainly supported by the participation of "veterans" in trading, and they were more inclined to hold for the long term. At the same time, the market hotspot has shifted more to ETH. And the strong market demand has continued to this day, according to the latest data on March 3, there are 18,140 in the past 24 hours72 BTC flowed out of the exchange wallet, and the total balance of the exchange wallet was 182130,000 BTC.
This data is about 60,000 wallets lower than the BTC exchange wallet balance in mid-FebruaryThis means that almost all BTC spot trading under the current bull market is driven by the BTC spot ETF market. Although these funds may more likely be transferred to the MEME sector or ETH and the Layer 2 ecosystem, they are also being passed on to the market"BTC may experience weakness in the short term".In the short term, investors' investment sentiment has dropped significantly compared with mid-to-early February, and if the sentiment is not stabilized and spreads again, it is likely to lead to continued consolidation or early arrival.
It's not easy to create, thank you for reading, and friends who like it can like and follow