Japan's population and economy are a mirror of the East Asian cultural sphere, and at the same time, Japan** can also become another mirror, but the "tearing feeling" of A-shares cannot find a mirror.
3400**, 1700** vs the three major indices are slightly green, such a tearing trend, but it is a happy situation. The index can fall slightly, just a little more, high-level and stockholdersTo each his own and to be in harmony with each other
Around 3000 points, the tearing trend between the index and ** will continue.
Since the 90s, Japan** has fallen for 20 consecutive years, and in the past 12 years, the Nikkei (+372%) has slightly outperformed the S&P 500 (+300%), and as of March 4, 2024, the Nikkei 225 index has exceeded 40,000 points. As of the end of 2023, the total market capitalization of companies listed on the Japanese Stock Exchange is about 61 trillion dollars, the total market capitalization is second only to the United States and us.
There is nothing to learn from Japan's lost 30 years, and we can cross the river by touching Japan.
Since last year, there has been a growing talk of "inflation expectations and deflation" in Japan, and I also read The Great Recession: The Holy Grail of Macroeconomics, which divides the cycle into yin and yang.
In the positive stage, the company's balance sheet is healthy, the business goal is to maximize profits, the aggregate demand of the society is strong, and the ideal regulatory tool is monetary policy.
In the negative stage, the business objectives of enterprises have shifted from "profit maximization" to "debt minimization", social aggregate demand is sluggish, and the monetary policy transmission mechanism fails.
Recently, it has been reported that Japan is considering announcing a formal end to deflation, and in addition, it will work to ensure that wage growth exceeds inflation to prevent a return to deflation.
When the bubble burst in the 90s, the loss of assets was equivalent to three times Japan's GDP in 1989. However, it is easy to overlook the fact that Japan's GDP has never fallen below the peak level of the bubble period, and its total GDP has long ranked among the top three in the world.
In 2023, Germany overtook Japan to become the third largest economy, and the top five economies (GDP in US dollars) are: the United States 254 trillion, China 179 trillion, Germany 44 trillion, Japan 42 trillion, India 37 trillion.
As a lesson learned, GDP must be maintained at a certain level so that people have the income to pay off their debts. When the balance sheet is in recession, when the household sector is more willing to save money and the corporate sector is no longer willing to borrow, it is necessary to expand fiscal spending. Japan's debt-to-GDP ratio increased from 38 in 19919% rose to 263 in 20229%。
The difference between us and Japan is that we have come to realize that this phenomenon is called "balance sheet recession", which the Japanese people did not know about 30 years ago.
Don't waste time on monetary policy, don't waste time on structural reforms, and focus on fiscal stimulus. - I don't remember the source of this phrase.This year, the market is more concerned about the deficit rate, special bonds and special treasury bonds, which is a reassuring pill for the economic growth rate of the first fiscal support.
Off topic, about CPI
The two-year compound growth rate of GDP in the fourth quarter of 2023 is 4%, and the set target for this year is around 5%. Year-to-date, the economy has neither gotten better nor worse, and the overall pattern has continued at the end of last year.
The CPI anchors a target of 3%, which I think is "very low in terms of price guidance". Assuming that the annual CPI can reach the target of 3%, then it will be easy to achieve a GDP growth rate of 5%, which means that the "consumption of the troika has recovered significantly"; In other words, even if GDP is 5%, the CPI is likely to hover around 1%.
CPI data is too much influenced by individual consumption behavior, and the preconditions for consumption are income and expectations. Therefore, the equipment renewal and trade-in proposed this year, I think the starting point has shifted from residential consumption to guiding corporate consumption, but corporate behavior is more strongly related to PPI.
Because my friends are showing good personal and family status, the "economics around me" has always expected me to be positive, but judging from other perspectives, I have been not optimistic about consumption since last year, and I still do.
MineElectrical equipmentThe shares got off in advance, and the other ** is still the same.
Macro on the left, trading on the right, capital never sleeps!
This article was originally written by the program ape who loves iron.
Text|A program ape who loves iron.