The price of gold soared as 14 ** ETFs achieved new net worth highs.
Affected by the larger-than-expected downside of U.S. economic data, risk aversion has risen sharply, and COMEX April closed up 131% at $2,123 an ounce, with an intraday high of $2,128$4. This is the first time in the history of the COMEX*** contract that it has closed above $2,100, from the all-time intraday high of 2,152 set in December 2023$3, which is also only one step away.
At the same time, the domestic *** also followed**. According to Shanghai ** Daily, on March 4, the gold price of pure gold jewelry in domestic brand stores exceeded 636 yuan, reaching a historical high.
Boosted by the strength of gold prices, A-share ** stocks rose intraday on Tuesday, and some ** rose by more than 9%. As of the afternoon, a **share ETF was trading at 2A 68% gain led the ETF** market.
It is worth mentioning that the reporter found that the net value of the 14 ETFs tracking the trend of domestic spot funds all hit a record high on March 4.
14** ETFs all rose more than 3% in the month
As of March 5**, the Win Win CSI CSI Shenzhen-Hong Kong ** Industry ETF was trading at 2A 68% gain led the ETF** market.
In the long run, Yongying CSI Shanghai-Shenzhen-Hong Kong ** Industry ** ETF is still at 594% of the 5-day gains topped the list, and another **-share ETF, ChinaAMC CSI Shanghai-Shenzhen-Hong Kong ** Industry ** ETF, was 5A 5-day gain of 33% was the second highest.
It is worth mentioning that the reporter found that as the domestic spot trend continues to rise, the net value of the 14 domestic ETFs (excluding connections, combined share calculation) that track the trend of domestic spot prices all hit a record high on March 4.
As of March 5, 14** ETFs have all risen more than 3% in the first three trading days of March.
Among them, Huaan** ETF, which is currently the largest, reached 144 as of March 49.8 billion yuan, an increase of 306%。In addition, the larger Bosera ** ETF, E Fund ** ETF, and Cathay ** ETF have a scale of 79 respectively1.1 billion yuan, 530.8 billion yuan, 225.2 billion yuan, the increase so far in the month is in order. 14%。
Recently, ** has risen sharply, which not only reflects the Fed's easing expectations, but also is driven by the general rise in commodities such as **. "As for the reasons for this round of gold price surges, Wells Fargo pointed out that from the personal balance and price data in February, the U.S. economy showed a moderate slowdown, and the Federal Reserve's statement that it was more appropriate to cut interest rates in the summer, the market began to trade again and liquidity was loose, pushing up the trend. In addition, recently, affected by the extension of the OPEC+ production cut agreement, the rapid upward trend has also driven the same commodity.
Zhu Jinyu, manager of CCB Shanghai Gold ETF and Connection**, said that the risk of recession in Europe and the United States has increased, and the general direction of the Federal Reserve's upcoming interest rate cut is relatively clear, but there is still uncertainty about the time rhythm. U.S. real interest rates may soon enter a downward cycle, and the subsequent upward direction of gold prices has strong certainty.
In addition, potential risk factors such as the financial system and geopolitics have also boosted demand, which has supported gold prices. In the context of the continuous overdraft of the US dollar's credit, ** as a 'hard currency' has also been favored by central banks. Overall, the probability of gold prices continuing to rise is high, and **quasi-themes** have strong allocation value. Zhu Jinyu said.
In the context of the interest rate cut cycle and global uncertainty, Huaan** Index and Quantitative Investment Department is also optimistic about 2024**. "First, as the inflation level gradually approaches the Fed's 2% target, the Fed may enter a major cycle of interest rate cuts in 2024. Second, global central bank gold purchases continued, and the People's Bank of China purchased gold for 14 consecutive months, supporting the marginal pricing of ** demand. Third, there are frequent risk events, including geopolitical risks in the Middle East and overseas banking risks. ”
At the same time, Zhu Jinyu also said that from a trading point of view, the current ** is in a good allocation window, and the future US real interest rate is likely to fall to a good performance, but we should pay attention to the rhythm of the layout, and it is recommended that investors should go on dips and not blindly chase high.
Whether it is the gold price or **, the market outlook is expected to be beneficial to ** stocks
**What is the outlook for the sector?
Sha Chuan, manager of Tianhong, said frankly that at present, it is difficult to judge the short-term trend from the perspective of the U.S. economy and inflation, as well as from the perspective of the exchange rate. However, due to the possibility of the expansion of the Palestinian-Israeli and Russian-Ukrainian conflicts, it is difficult to weaken, so the RMB is cautiously optimistic about March. "From a full-year perspective, the yield of RMB** this year will be significantly lower than in the previous two years, and its allocation value is more for the purpose of hedging, and better investment opportunities may be in the equity market. ”
In the medium term, for example, in the next 2 to 3 years, I am more optimistic about the US dollar, and the RMB, mainly due to the fact that international friction and manufacturing reshoring will increase global inflation in the long run; Second, the U.S. debt distress and the dollar shortage and dollar sanctions caused by interest rate hikes will damage the credit of the dollar; Third, the international situation is dominated by confrontation, and the central bank's gold purchase behavior may continue; Fourth, the United States is raising interest rates counter-economic cycles, although the economic data is strong in the short term, there is a risk of recession, the interest rate hike is nearing the end, and the interest rate cut is gradually approaching. In addition, risk aversion, allocation, and exchange rate hedging are also reasons for allocation**. Sha Chuan said.
Liu Tingyu, manager of Yongying ** stock ETF, also believes that "whether it is gold price or **, the market outlook is expected to be beneficial to ** stocks." "As the Fed's rate cut cycle approaches, the US dollar and Treasury rates are expected to weaken and drive capital inflows into emerging markets, which have been observed to continue to flow into A-shares. With the successive introduction and implementation of domestic policy support, the pace of economic recovery is accelerating, corporate earnings are expected to rebound, and the possibility of macro liquidity "easy money and stable credit" is high.
Liu Tingyu further said that as the negative impact of the high interest rate environment on the U.S. economy gradually emerged, the U.S. economic data has begun to come under pressure, and U.S. bond yields may start a downward cycle, which is expected to form medium-term support for gold prices; The Federal Reserve interest rate meeting in January hinted at the possibility of subsequent interest rate cuts, and the Fed's interest rate cut may become an important driving force for the follow-up.
In addition, factors such as continuous geopolitical disturbances in the global ** year, strong demand for central bank gold purchases and private gold purchases in 2024 may catalyze gold prices in a certain period of time in the future**; Factors such as de-globalization, 'de-dollarization' of the monetary system, hedging debt crises and sovereign credit risk are also expected to support *** in the long term, and we remain optimistic about our performance in 2024. Liu Tingyu said.
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