Soaring 50 billion overnight, the ideal car is crazy!

Mondo Cars Updated on 2024-03-04

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Just when new energy vehicle companies in China and the United States have stopped production and laid off employees, the controversial ideal car has handed over an "explosive" answer.

On February 26, Li Company announced its fourth quarter and full year 2023 results.

According to the report, the company's revenue in 2023 is 12385.1 billion, an increase of 173 over the same period last year48%;Net profit 1180.9 billion yuan, an increase of 681 over the same period of the previous year06%。During this four-month period, the company's operating income was 417300 million yuan, an increase of 136 over the same period last year4%, net profit 57500 million. It can be said that this year's performance is mainly due to the financial report of the fourth quarter of last year.

100 million in revenue, 100 million in profit, what does that mean?

Take the performance in 2022, in China, SAIC, BYD, Geely, Great Wall, Changan, GAC, GAC, and GAC have annual net profits of more than 10 billion. Among these companies, only SAIC and BYD have a net profit of more than 10 billion.

From last year to 2022, Li Auto has been losing money for five consecutive years, with a cumulative loss of 64500 million yuan. Although it has been two years since it was listed in the United States, in 2022, the ideal revenue is still less than 50 billion yuan, with a net loss of 2 billion yuan.

But now, his dream has come true, and all the money he has earned in the past five years has been earned.

The automobile industry is a typical industry with economies of scale. At the same time, Li Auto also attributed this report card to the continuous increase in the number of deliveries.

In December 2023, Li Auto's monthly deliveries will exceed 50,000 units, and the annual delivery volume will be 3760,000 units, an increase of 182 over the same period of the previous year2%, achieving 125 percent of the annual sales target3%。

At the same time, the strict control of the overall cost also saves a lot of expenses for the enterprise. Over the past three quarters, the ideal selling and administrative expenses have remained at the level of about 8%, compared to less than 9% in the first quarter of last year and 79%。This compares to 125%.

Similarly, in 2022, the ideal ratio of R&D spending is 150%, and in 2023 it will be 85%。

While increasing revenue and reducing expenditure, the ideal cash reserves have also been significantly improved. This figure is expected to increase from 584 at the end of 2022 by the end of 2023500 million yuan increased to 1036700 million yuan. In addition, the company's gross profit margin also increased from 19 at the end of 20224% to 22 by the end of 20232%, and the profit margin on car sales also increased from 191% to 215%.

Even in the field of new energy, this profit margin will not be much worse than that of companies such as Tesla and BYD, which are known for their cost control. Tesla will get 182% gross profit, while BYD reached 2212%。The two companies will double their sales performance in 2023.

Assuming that the average selling price of an ideal car is 370,000 yuan, then the profit of each car is 80,000 yuan, and the net profit is 30,000 yuan.

Li Xiang said at the performance meeting that by 2030, China's family cars will occupy a place in the field of family cars below 200,000 yuan, and this piece will bring hundreds of billions of dollars in profits. He believes that as long as the company can do well abroad, "by 2030, our global revenue will be on par with the iPhone's revenue from more than 200,000 home computers." ”

After this ** meeting, on the last day of ** in the United States, Li Auto won with 41$34 *** up 1879%。On February 27, Li Auto, which was listed in Hong Kong, also soared, with a market value of about HK$60 billion in the morning.

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The reason why Li Auto will be able to make a profit in 2023 is mainly due to its bumper harvest in overall sales and single vehicle profits. However, last year, Li Auto's sales were mainly L7, L8 and LL9. How could Li Xiang destroy everyone with three off-road vehicles?

It all started with the first car of the Ideal One.

From the moment it was launched in 2019, the Ideal ONE has targeted the high-end sedan market of about 300,000 yuan. This should not only take into account the competitive environment and opportunities in the market, but also take into account the profitability and other factors, in order to ensure the long-term and healthy development of the enterprise.

The more upscale something is, the higher the profit, and this is also true in ***. In order to attract more consumers to buy "the best new energy vehicles", Li Xiang boldly proposed a "no battery life" scheme, plus refrigerators, color TVs and large sofas, which is a new driving experience.

Although this decision caused a lot of controversy at the time, Ideal One was a huge success "unexpectedly".

In 2021, the total sales of the "Ideal One" exceeded 90,000 units. According to the 2021 financial report of "Ideal One", the company's gross profit margin for the whole year reached 206%, that is, for every 340,000 yuan ideal one sold, you can earn more than 70,000 yuan.

But in 2022, Huawei launched Hongmeng Zhixing and launched the Wenjie M7, which completely crushed the ideal one, and Li Xiang had to come up with the two "L series" L9 and L8, and the three models sold a total of 1330,000 units, but it still failed to recover the decline.

The "City Boundary" noted that in 2023, the sales volume of the "ideal" will be 3760,000 units, a fourfold increase from 2021 and almost three times that of 2022.

From the "big single product" of the ideal one to the three "big single product x3" of L7, L8 and LL9 today, the sales of the entire market are increasing rapidly.

Perhaps, there is a certain amount of luck in this. Take Li Xiang as an example, the L7 that sold best last year was given up under the strong opposition of the high-level.

Whether it is the ideal one, or L7, L8, L8, LL8, they all belong to the extended range type. Although many people say that extended-range vehicles "burn oil to generate electricity", "pull pants and fart", and have no core technology, this does not mean anything. "Refrigerators, sofas, color TVs", there is no technical threshold, but the range extender solves the user's battery life problem, and Li wants to make money earlier than his competitors.

An angel investor commented on Li Xiang: "He is a good product manager and very good at reading words. ”

Of course, there is also a part of the reason for this, that is, Li Xiang's "picking" word made Li Auto the first to make a profit.

Ideal is known for "picking factories" in the circle, which even Li Xiang himself laughed at. To sum it up in one sentence, it is: sell the best car with the least manpower and the least cost. This can be seen in the L-Series strategy.

The L7, L8 and LL9, although they are three different models, are exactly the same in terms of appearance and appearance.

In terms of positioning, L8 is a direct take on the ONE, L9 is a larger, larger, and more luxurious luxury version, and L7 is a five-seat version. In short, it is to use medium cups, large cups, and super large cups to distinguish L7, L8 and L8.

The advantage of this "nesting doll" strategy is that the R&D cost of the three models will be greatly reduced, the product launch cycle will also be greatly shortened, and with the expansion of sales scale, the cost will also decrease. The L6 will be available in the second quarter of 2024 and it follows the same strategy – the "small cup".

The ideal sales volume, in addition to the leading technology and the advantages in the first place, is also inseparable from the support of the market and sales channels.

On the one hand, Li Xiang likes to express his views on his social ** to bring more profits to his company, and on the other hand, he also has extremely high requirements for his products. Just like last year, many flight attendants jumped to the sales position of Li Auto.

In addition, in terms of channels, in the fourth quarter of this year, the company added 106 new outlets, with an average of more than one new outlet per day, forming the largest direct sales system in China. As of January 31, 2024, Ideal has 474 outlets in 142 cities in China.

At the performance meeting, Li Xiang said that the company will continue to expand.

Business in first-, second- and third-tier cities, and further expand to third- and fourth-tier cities.

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Li Xiang posted a WeChat message in July 2023, saying that the value of a new brand and a product depends on these three factors: whether the sales are good or not, consumers like it, and competitors hate it. Judging by the current situation, he really did it.

At the ** conference, Li Xiang put down his arrogance, "By 2024, our goal is to sell 800,000 units and become the leader in luxury car sales in China." ”

What is the annual sales of 800,000 units? This figure is more than the 75,000 new cars sold by Mercedes-Benz in China in 2023. And Li Auto's sales target for 2023 is 3760,000 units, isn't that a bit too high?

2024 is an unprecedented product year for Li Auto, and by the end of this year, our new car series will include 4 PHEVs and 4 pure electric models, a total of 8 models, forming a very competitive product line that can fully meet the diverse needs of home users. Li Xiang said.

This also means that in addition to the pure electric MPV launched on March 1, the 2024 L7 L8 L9, and the extended range L6 launched in the second quarter, there are three new cars, namely M7, M8, and M9.

Li Xiang said that all three models are SUVs, and they are all "standard 5C charging, four-wheel drive, very competitive products." ”

Zou expects Li Auto to deliver 50,000 units in March 2024, 70,000 units in June 2024, and 100,000 units per month by the end of the year.

Li Xiang also said that in the next five years, there will be no less than 200,000 cars on the market. According to his estimates, by the fourth quarter of 2024, the new energy vehicle market of about 200,000 units will be divided by the three major brands. "It's not CR5, it's the concentration of the CR3 industry, not the traditional automotive industry. Wait and see! ”

For this point, industry experts said that Li Xiang's approach is very radical. In 2023, the total sales of new energy vehicles below 200,000 yuan will reach 2.54 million units, with the top three car companies accounting for 5328% market share. There are 24 in this02% of Tesla, there are 1484% ideal, there are 1442% of BYD. If BYD and DENZA are combined, it is 191%。"According to the current development trend, the sales of this CR3 will not be too fast, mainly because the development speed of new energy vehicles is too fast. ”

Who are the "Big Three" in Li Xiang's mouth?

In terms of brands, Tesla, Ideal and BYD are the largest salesmen. Some people also say that the new energy vehicle industry is changing rapidly, and no one can always be the winner, and both ZEEKR and Huawei have "potential that cannot be ignored".

Although Li Auto will do well in 2023, it is still a long way from being "stable". The first question is whether the newly launched pure electric vehicles can be recognized by consumers like range extenders.

Over the years, Li Auto has been waving the banner of "range anxiety" and "energy supplement anxiety", and Li Xiang has equated "ideal" and "range extender". However, it may take some time for cars to move from extended range to pure electric vehicles.

Some people say that "oil and electricity" is definitely an ideal car, but its pure electric vehicle "has a lot of uncertainties". Just like the 5 C supercharger of Ideal Company, although the energy is replenished quickly, it also needs to be considered how to reassure customers.

In addition, "refrigerators, color TVs, and large sofas" are not two things that cannot be imitated. The intelligent cockpit and intelligent driving technology are not very outstanding, but if they are plugged in too quickly, they are likely to "roll over".

Ma Donghui, chairman and chief engineer of Li Auto, said at a conference, "Our urban navigation system will be promoted nationwide and will not be limited by the number of cities." However, in early February 2024, according to Sohu Auto Network, there are actually only two roads that can be passed through the "Kaicheng" event in Tianjin.

Although some play with words, the ideal is also a bloody investment, just waiting for the moment when intelligent driving changes from quantitative to qualitative. Judging from the current situation, the result of "pulling hatred" has given Li Auto more room for adjustment.

So far, there are still voices in the market about the lack of moats, insufficient moats, and poor replaceability of Li Auto. In reality, the homogenization of new energy vehicle products is inevitable, and the control of "user value" is the ideal moat.

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