2024 will be a big year for offshore wind power.
Huaxia Energy Network (**hxny3060) noted that at the beginning of 2024, the pace of start-up, construction and grid connection of domestic offshore wind power projects will be significantly accelerated. Not only have a number of central state-owned enterprise sea wind projects such as China Energy Group and State Power Investment Corporation been approved, but also Hainan, Fujian, Shandong and other coastal provinces have successively announced their plans for sea wind projects in 2024.
According to IFC***, in 2024, the bidding scale of sea breeze in the domestic market will reach 15GW, and the installed capacity will reach 10 16GW, an increase of 67% to 167% year-on-year.
However, last year's optimistic expectations for the "Sea Breeze Year" were unfortunately "disappointed". As early as the beginning of 2023, the Haifeng market started as well as it is now, but in the second quarter of last year, the situation changed abruptly, and finally the annual bidding volume and installed capacity were not as expected.
So, looking forward to 2024, what are the important positive factors for the development of sea breeze? Will there be a repeat of last year's "less than expected" mistake?
Development policy remains uncertain
Looking back at the important reasons why the development of Haifeng in 2023 is less than expected, one of them is that in the second quarter, the approval of Haifeng projects was pressed the "tentative button", which also triggered a sharp decline in the number of Haifeng tenders, and even the phenomenon that there was no bidding for the whole month.
As for the reason for the stagnation of approvals, the industry boils down to the "Double 30" policy, which means that new offshore wind projects must meet the development conditions of "more than 30 kilometers offshore or more than 30 meters deep". At that time, the industry even rumored that the National Energy Administration would no longer approve offshore wind power projects, which led to the suspension of some offshore wind projects and the stagnation of bidding.
The relevant person in charge of a planning institute in the industry once revealed to Huaxia Energy Network that the "Double 30" policy is only one of the reasons for no longer approving sea wind projects, and it is more due to some comprehensive considerations. Specifically, "no matter what type of resource development is promoted, there must be a comprehensive plan. Offshore wind power is no exception, and there are more factors to consider, including shipping, environment, aquaculture, coastal defense, military and other factors. ”
In recent years, domestic offshore wind power has developed rapidly, but the corresponding coordination mechanism is relatively lagging behind.
One background is that the state has identified some deficiencies in the course of inspections. "It is also necessary to appropriately stop and rectify and rectify, improve the system, and establish a corresponding coordination mechanism, which is also necessary for the more stable and healthy development of offshore wind power. And you can't see it as a bad thing. The person in charge said.
Of course, by August last year, with the issuance of the "single 30" policy and the Haifeng document, the bidding for the Haifeng project also returned to normal.
At the beginning of 2024, the industry is also waiting to see if there will be another policy change that will affect the approval of sea breeze projects?
On the one hand, speculation about the direction of policy is not unfounded. At the beginning of January this year, the Department of Sea Island Management of the Ministry of Natural Resources issued the "Notice on Statistics on the Management of Offshore Photovoltaic Projects", which requires that from the date of issuance of the notice, the competent departments of natural resources (ocean) at all levels along the coast should suspend the acceptance of applications for offshore photovoltaic projects or approve the market-oriented transfer plan for offshore photovoltaic projects.
Prior to the above documents, Shandong and Hebei have also successively issued blockbuster documents on offshore photovoltaics, giving relevant requirements on the way and scope of sea use, approval requirements, paid use, etc.
On the other hand, as the saying goes, "scenery is not separated". In mid-February this year, the National Forestry and Grassland Administration (NFGA) issued a notice on regulating the use of forest land for wind farm projects (draft for comments), specifying a number of areas where wind power construction is prohibited.
The speed or slowness of the wind power market in 2024 will still be largely affected by policy trends. There is still uncertainty about whether local policies will be tightened for the development of the Haifeng project, and it is also the last thing the industry wants.
Wind turbine accidents are a "black swan" problem that cannot be ignored
Some industry insiders told Huaxia Energy Network that if there is a major accident in an offshore wind power project, it is also likely to lead to the tightening of policies, which in turn will affect the development of offshore wind.
Since last year, there have been frequent accidents in offshore wind power projects in Europe, which has not only affected the performance of OEMs, but also damaged wind farm owners and developers, and even affected Europe's ambitious offshore wind planning.
In the domestic market, there is very little information about wind power accidents that have been publicly disclosed. But does this mean that the reliability of the sea wind unit is beyond doubt?
At the 2024 Wind Energy New Year Tea Party held at the end of January this year, some guests said that according to incomplete statistics, in the past ten years. The number of accidents or failures of wind turbines in China is also increasing year by year. Li Peng, deputy director of the Wind Energy Special Committee of the China Renewable Energy Society, also revealed that although there is not much public information, what must be paid attention to by the industry is that in 2023, wind power blades will have the most problems, and some even conventional generators will have problems.
Regarding the root causes of frequent accidents, industry insiders all point to low-price competition and rapid iteration of models.
Huaxia Energy Network noted that in the history of the development of the wind power industry, 2011 was a year of frequent wind power accidents. In the first half of the year alone, Jiuquan, known as the "Three Gorges of Wind Power", had three large-scale off-grid accidents in a row, which not only affected the Gansu power grid, but also lowered the frequency of the main network of the entire Northwest Power Grid. At the same time, a wind power accident occurred in Zhangjiakou, a major wind power province in Hebei, causing 644 wind turbines to go off the grid.
At this stage of development of the industry, the successive occurrence of wind power accidents has attracted the attention of the National Energy Administration. In March and May of that year, the National Energy Administration issued two notices, emphasizing that "projects without state approval shall not start construction".
The attention paid to safety and reliability by the relevant authorities has been for a long time. Nowadays, going to the deep sea has become the definitive direction of offshore wind power development, and it has also become the focus of machine manufacturers and developers. However, due to different geographical factors, the harsher environment is an insurmountable test for wind turbines.
Although domestic onshore wind power technology is quite mature, the capacity of a single unit has exceeded 10MW, or even larger. However, some industry insiders warn that it is definitely irresponsible to simply "move" it to the sea from project design to construction in a more challenging development environment.
The core and most basic of wind turbine design is risk management and control. At the 2024 Wind Energy New Year Tea Party, Qin Haiyan, Secretary-General of the Wind Energy Professional Committee of the Chinese Renewable Energy Society, also reminded as above.
For companies planning to enter offshore wind power, especially deep-sea wind, this sentence should be kept in mind, because once there is a large-scale and serious accident, not only will they be "kicked" out of the market and no longer trusted by developers, but the entire industry will also face the risk of being "stopped" at the policy level.
*Please indicate the source, article**: Huaxia Energy Network, **hxny3060).