What are the pros and cons of the China-Laos railway?
Vietnam's dream is to unify the Indochina Peninsula and take advantage of its strategic location to find a balance in the international community. However, pressure from the north has put Vietnam in a predicament that it cannot overcome or refute.
Vietnam's ambitions were evident from the moment it broke away from the control of the Central Plains Dynasty. After breaking away from the Central Plains Dynasty in 937 AD, it took Vietnam 800 years to successfully expand its territory from the Red River Delta to the Mekong Delta.
Although Vietnam had managed to break free from the control of the Central Plains Dynasty, it still could not escape the influence of the Central Plains Dynasty. In order to prove itself orthodox, Vietnam established the "Southern Dynasty" and wrote a lot in the history books in an attempt to prove that it was the successor of the Central Plains Dynasty.
This phenomenon is very common in small countries, the more they lack something, the more they emphasize something, the less they get recognition, the more they want to be recognized, which is very similar to South Korea.
After breaking away from the control of the Central Plains Dynasty, Vietnam established its first feudal dynasty, the Dinh Dynasty, after a melee of the Twelve Envoys. At that time, Vietnam was highly modeled after the Central Plains Dynasty in terms of political system and culture, which was a kind of suppression for Cambodia and Laos, which were both politically and culturally tribal.
Vietnam's western expeditions took place as many as 20 times in the nearly four hundred years from 1159 to 1529, but due to the harsh geographical environment, these expeditions did not achieve the desired results.
It wasn't until 1802 that Vietnam actually took control of Cambodia and Laos, and tried to sinicize these two countries, giving them hanfu and canonization. This control lasted until the mid-18th century, when, as half-cousins, the British and French fought fiercely in Vietnam, and eventually, the French gained the upper hand and established their suzerainty over Vietnam, and Vietnam naturally lost control of Cambodia and Laos.
After the successive defeats of France and the United States, in 1975, North Vietnam was successfully established and announced that the dream of a small China in the south was about to be realized. Vietnam hopes to become the hegemon of the Indochina Peninsula and achieve the north-south confrontation with the northern powers.
After the completion of reunification, Vietnam began to expand abroad, establishing a special relationship with Vietnam as the leader and Laos and Cambodia as subordinates. Vietnam's self-confidence was bursting, and with the support of the Soviet Union, it openly declared itself the third in the world.
However, the great powers of the North are known for beating the third largest country in the world, and the country that last made such a claim has already suffered a long blow.
At a time when Sino-Soviet relations deteriorated to the extreme, Vietnam took advantage"The enemy of a friend is the enemy"began provocative acts on the Sino-Vietnamese border. Vietnam, with the support of the Soviet Union, tried to expand its territory on the southern borders of the northern powers, but was ultimately taught a lesson by China.
This incident made Vietnam realize that it is not the so-called "third military power", but has always been fat. At the same time, Laos and Cambodia also saw this, so they put aside their grievances with Vietnam and threw themselves into the arms of China.
The conflict has created a relatively peaceful border environment for China's reform and opening up.
The northern powers have taught Vietnam a lesson with a big stick, and while Vietnam still wants to be the leader of Indochina, it has ceased to show it publicly. With the advancement of reform and opening up, China has ushered in a period of rapid development, and its relations with Southeast Asian countries have become more and more important.
Therefore, the layout of the Indochina Peninsula was also put on the agenda. The most direct manifestation of this is the large-scale construction of infrastructure in the Yunnan-Guizhou-Sichuan region. Since 2000, China has carried out large-scale infrastructure projects in the southwest region, overcoming various difficulties, and finally succeeded in opening up the transportation in the southwest region, and the highway and high-speed railway network has covered the entire northwest region.
As the saying goes, roads are the foundation of development, and infrastructure construction in the greater southwest has indeed boosted economic development, but this view is somewhat superficial. After all, these infrastructure construction requires a huge amount of investment, and it is almost impossible to fully cover the construction cost of the economic development of the southwest mountainous area, and annual losses are the norm.
However, from a geopolitical point of view, opening up the rail and road network in the southwest will greatly enhance the radiation capacity of China's Indochina Peninsula.
After 2000, China's relations with Laos, China-Thailand, and China-Cambodia began to strengthen, which not only meant that Vietnam's influence in the Indochina Peninsula would be replaced by China, but also brought tangible benefits to Laos and other countries.
Although Vietnam has given Laos some economic support, Laos has chosen to cooperate with China, follow China's development, and enjoy more development opportunities and benefits.
Laos has become increasingly close to China, especially in infrastructure projects such as the construction of railways, and China has become deeply involved in Indochina, posing a direct competitive threat to Vietnam.
Therefore, Vietnam can only watch China's position in the Indochina Peninsula become more and more solid, and it has no choice but to do so.
With the advantages of the China-Laos railway and the land link, Laos will have an economic growth of 45%, well above the expected 3%. This has made Thailand and Vietnam nervous, both of whom want to catch China's fast-growing train.
Thailand once wavered behind the United States and Japan, but after China's economic rise, China's voice in Southeast Asia has become stronger, and Thailand's attitude towards China has changed. The importance of China's wooing of Thailand has given Thailand more options.
However, seeing the economic benefits brought by the China-Laos railway to Laos, Thailand has also begun to promote the construction of the China-Thailand railway. The day after the opening of the China-Laos Railway, the Ministry of Transport of Thailand announced the acceleration of the bidding plan for the second phase of the China-Thailand Railway.
1.Thailand and Laos are negotiating a complete rail system, in stark contrast to Thailand's previous hesitation. The reason is that due to the impact of the epidemic in 2022, Thailand's economy shrank by 61%, which is the worst report card handed over by Thailand** since the Asian financial crisis in 1998.
The China-Laos railway in Laos offers hope for the potential revival of tourism once the China-Thailand railway is completed, allowing Chinese tourists to reach Thailand directly by rail.
So Thailand's eagerness is understandable. In contrast, Vietnam is more embarrassed on this issue, as it proposed a high-speed rail plan in 2010, but in the end the Vietnamese high-speed rail contract was given to Japan instead of China.
2.Thailand and Laos are working together to build a complete railway system, which is in stark contrast to Thailand's previous hesitation. In 2022, Thailand's economy shrank by 6 due to the impact of the pandemic1%, which is the worst report card handed over by Thailand** since the Asian financial crisis in 1998.
The China-Laos railway in Laos is a source of hope for the tourism industry as it will allow Chinese tourists to reach Thailand directly by rail once the railway is completed.
So Thailand's eagerness is understandable. In contrast, Vietnam is more embarrassed on this issue, as it proposed a high-speed rail plan in 2010, but in the end the Vietnamese high-speed rail contract was given to Japan instead of China.
3.Thailand and Laos are negotiating a complete rail system, in stark contrast to Thailand's previous hesitation. The reason is that in 2022, due to the impact of the epidemic, Thailand's economy shrank by 61%, which is the worst report card handed over by Thailand** since the Asian financial crisis in 1998.
The China-Laos railway in Laos is a source of hope for the tourism industry as it will allow Chinese tourists to reach Thailand directly by rail once the railway is completed.
So Thailand's eagerness is understandable. In contrast, Vietnam is more embarrassed on this issue, as it proposed a high-speed rail plan in 2010, but in the end the Vietnamese high-speed rail contract was given to Japan instead of China.
4.Thailand and Laos are working together to build a complete railway system, which is in stark contrast to Thailand's previous hesitation. In 2022, Thailand's economy shrank by 6 due to the impact of the pandemic1%, which is the worst report card handed over by Thailand** since the Asian financial crisis in 1998.
The China-Laos railway in Laos is a source of hope for the tourism industry as it will allow Chinese tourists to reach Thailand directly by rail once the railway is completed.
So Thailand's eagerness is understandable. In contrast, Vietnam is more embarrassed on this issue, as it proposed a high-speed rail plan in 2010, but in the end the Vietnamese high-speed rail contract was given to Japan instead of China.
Vietnam originally wanted to counter China by introducing the U.S. "Trans-East Asian Railway" plan, but the U.S. didn't pay much attention to it due to its own national strength and geographical constraints.
In desperation, Vietnam turned to Japan for technical support to counter China's "Trans-Southeast Asian Railway" plan. However, Japan's high construction costs and long construction period have put Vietnam under great pressure.
While Vietnam** continued to compromise and reduce the speed of high-speed rail to 200 km/h, Japan** got higher and higher, eventually even exceeding the design speed of the China-Laos railway.
This has made Vietnam's efforts in vain, and it can only be said with a bitter smile.
Vietnam's economy is facing difficulties and can only negotiate with China. Under Nguyen Phu Trong's push, Vietnam hopes to receive assistance from China to build a railway line running through the north and south of Vietnam.
Vietnam, however, was reluctant to participate in the Chinese-led Trans-Asian Railway, believing Indochina to be their sphere of influence. If a Chinese-led railway system were to be built in Southeast Asia, it could weaken Vietnam's influence in Indochina and marginalize it.
Therefore, Vietnam must find a balance in the construction of the railway, both with Chinese assistance without losing control of Indochina.
China, as the main leader in the construction of railways, naturally gained control of the railways. Although Vietnam wants to resist, China's strength makes any resistance only a useless blow.
In addition, if Vietnam chooses to challenge this railway, it will be tantamount to ruining the jobs of other Southeast Asian countries and making itself the target of public criticism. Therefore, although Vietnam may be resistant to this, it will eventually get involved, because it is undoubtedly irrational to ignore such a money-making opportunity.
Title: China-Laos Railway Officially Launched, Vietnam's Railway Project Still Distant Content: The China-Laos Railway has become an important part of the pan-Southeast Asian railway network, while Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City in Vietnam are on the margins.
The problem facing Vietnam is that if it joins the pan-Southeast Asian railway network, it will only be able to become small, not big, and will be in the shadow of a northern power for a long time; However, if they refuse to join, they will lose the opportunity for China's industrial transfer and be marginalized by Southeast Asian countries.
The pan-Southeast Asian railway system will be the key to China's influence in Southeast Asia, while Vietnam's "great power dream" may disappear in the political game, changing from a big wolf dog to a small milk dog.
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