With the US-backed Venezuelan opposition representative barred from running by the Venezuelan Supreme Court, US-Venezuelan relations have seen a series of fluctuations recently. The United States has used the reinstatement of sanctions as a coercive means to allow representatives of the Venezuelan opposition to participate in 2024**, but Venezuela** believes that the United States' actions are the product of hegemony and threaten Venezuela's sovereignty and independence.
A number of analysts told the reporter of ** Radio and Television that the repeated US sanctions on the issue is a manifestation of its hegemonic policy of "carrots and sticks" all along, in an attempt to use sanctions to interfere in Venezuela's internal affairs. In addition, the United States has lost its trust in the issue of sanctions against Iran, which is enough to prove that the United States is often "unreliable" in fulfilling its international commitments.
Restrictions at various levels The United States has partially lifted sanctions against Venezuela
Since 2006, the sanctions imposed by the United States on Venezuela have caused serious economic losses and a humanitarian crisis to Venezuela. In particular, since 2017, Venezuela** production has fallen from 1.9 million barrels per day to 350,000 barrel days in 2020 due to severe US sanctions against Venezuela's oil industry, the backbone of Venezuela's economy, and the threat of secondary sanctions against other countries. Subsequently, with the help of Russia, Iran and other countries, Venezuela** production has increased, but it has not exceeded 1 million barrels per day.
In February 2022, after the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, due to the collective sanctions of Western countries on Russia's oil and gas exports, which led to a surge in international oil and gas**, the United States** decided to allow Chevron to resume oil exploration operations in Venezuela and allow it to import Venezuelan oil for a period of 6 months from November 2022. Since then, the U.S.** sanctions waiver against Chevron has been extended.
U.S. sanctions have led to a significant drop in Venezuela** production. Pictured here is a gas station owned by Petroleos de Venezuela.
Under this sanctions waiver, Chevron resumed imports** from Venezuela for shipment to refineries in the Gulf of Mexico, and exported large quantities of petroleum diluent from the U.S. to Venezuelan diluted heavy goods**. In addition, Venezuela has resumed targeting the European and Indian markets
In October 2023, the U.S. Treasury Department said that in response to the political agreement reached between Venezuela and the opposition in Barbados, it decided to impose a six-month general license on Venezuela, temporarily lift some energy restrictions on Venezuela, and lift the ban on certain Venezuelan sovereign bonds and secondary trading of debt and equity of Venezuela's state-owned oil companies.
In November 2023, the U.S. Department of the Treasury once again introduced sanctions waivers to allow four petroleum technical services giants, Schlumberger, Halliburton, Baker Hughes, and Weatherford International, to carry out limited oil and gas exploration and maintenance services in Venezuela for a period of six months. The U.S. Treasury Department also warned that the temporary lifting of sanctions against Venezuela does not mean that international oil and gas companies are encouraged to fully resume business in Venezuela, and relevant companies can choose to maintain a "limited presence" in Venezuela, and subsequent sanctions waivers "will depend on whether Venezuela** can take concrete measures to promote domestic elections by the end of 2024." ”
Affected by the easing of some sanctions by the United States, there has been a brief easing in relations between Venezuela and the United States since October 2023. The United States released Venezuelan Special Envoy Alex Saab in exchange for 10 Americans detained in Venezuela. On January 27, 2024, Venezuela's Supreme Court ruled to uphold the ban on Venezuelan opposition representative Machado from holding public office for 15 years, citing Machado's involvement in multiple corruption cases led by former Venezuelan "ad hoc" Guaidó for alleged embezzlement of Venezuelan assets abroad. In December 2022, Venezuelan opposition figures reportedly voted to revoke Guaidó's "temporary" status. Machado has previously publicly supported the United States' economic sanctions against Venezuela and called on foreign countries to launch military action against Venezuela.
Venezuelan Maduro welcomed Saab home.
Machado's ban from running has caused discontent on the part of the United States. A number of Republican senators in the United States have publicly supported Machado, demanding that Biden recognize Machado as a candidacy for Venezuela in 2024. U.S. spokesman Miller immediately said that he was seriously concerned about the ruling made by the Venezuelan Supreme Court and was re-evaluating the sanctions against Venezuela in light of the latest developments.
The U.S. threat to reinstate sanctions against Venezuela has sparked opposition from Latin American countries
On January 30 this year, the United States issued a statement saying that it had decided not to renew General License No. 44 for Venezuela, and that it would no longer authorize transactions related to the oil or gas industry in Venezuela by U.S. companies after April 18. And on January 29, the U.S. Treasury Department issued a statement restricting U.S. companies' transactions with Venezuelan mining companies.
In the face of the U.S. threat, Venezuela said in a statement on January 30 that the U.S. "ignores international law, attempts to carry out a coup d'état in Venezuela through coercion, and uses new oppressive methods to undermine the economic stability and well-being of the Venezuelan people." Maduro said on the 31st: "Neither sanctions nor violence can stop us. Venezuela refuses to accept the rude and improper blackmail and "ultimatum" of the United States, and plans to cancel its repatriation flights for migrants in the United States from February 13 if the United States intensifies its economic aggression against Venezuela, and take countermeasures against the United States.
Brazil's Chief Special Adviser and former Minister Amorim said that Brazil advocates enhancing mutual trust among all parties through dialogue and clearly opposes sanctions that violate international law. In response to the threat of re-imposition of sanctions on Venezuela, Brazil** has begun to engage with the United States and Venezuela in an effort to avoid further deterioration of the situation.
Cuban Foreign Minister Rodríguez Parrilla said that Cuba** unequivocally opposes the United States' threats against Venezuela and its interference in its internal affairs, and at the same time expresses the firm support of Cuba** and its people for the Venezuelan people.
A number of organizations and groups in Latin America have also expressed their firm opposition to US sanctions against Venezuela. The Bolivarian Alliance for the Americas unequivocally opposes and strongly condemns the United States' interference in Venezuela's internal affairs. In addition, more than 600 social groups and organizations in Latin America and the Caribbean jointly sent a letter to Biden in the United States, demanding an end to unilateral coercion against Venezuela. In the letter, they stressed that it is entirely possible for the United States to establish normal diplomatic relations with Venezuela and that hundreds of sanctions imposed on Venezuela should be lifted because there is no justification for these illegal acts.
What does the reinstatement of US sanctions mean for Venezuela?
Analysts pointed out that the resumption of energy sanctions on Venezuela by the United States in April this year may have a negative impact on the country's oil production capacity, which has improved slightly, and may also reduce the country's economic growth expectations.
Venezuelan economist Francisco Rodríguez said that if the United States does not renew the No. 44 permit, but retains the sanctions waiver against Chevron, it will cause about $1.6 billion in economic losses to Venezuela, about 14%。
Reuters recently wrote that if the United States decides to reimpose sanctions on Venezuela, Venezuela's oil production is likely to decline rapidly. Although it is unclear whether the United States will fully reinstate sanctions against Venezuela or still retain sanctions waivers against Chevron, in any case, Venezuelan oil production is likely to be in just a few months, from December 87 last year60,000 barrels per day dropped to 600,000-700,000 barrels per day. The article notes that after the reinstatement of sanctions, the process of exporting Venezuela's oil may become more complicated and tortuous.
A ** export terminal in Venezuela.
According to a survey report released by the Confederation of Venezuelan Industry a few days ago, 93% of the country's surveyed industrial business owners oppose the sanctions imposed by the United States on Venezuela, and **, if the United States relaxes high-pressure sanctions on Venezuela in 2024, the country's economy may usher in further growth. Luigi Picera, president of the association, said that if the U.S. partial sanctions waiver on Venezuela is extended by April 2024, the country's private industrial production is expected to grow by 10 percent, and if the United States reinstates unilateral sanctions against Venezuela in April, it is expected to grow by 43%。
Analysts also said that the repeated lifting of sanctions by the United States is a manifestation of its hegemonic policy of "carrots and sticks" and an attempt to use sanctions to interfere in Venezuela's internal affairs.
William Rodríguez, vice chairman of the Energy and Petrochemicals Committee of the Venezuelan Congress, told reporters that the question of the candidacy of the Venezuelan opposition in the 2024** elections needs to be decided by the Venezuelan Supreme Court, "Venezuela urges the United States to completely lift the sanctions on Venezuela, because the sanctions are illegal, and the United States needs Venezuelan energy and oil more than ever."
Venezuelan economist Fernando Battista told the reporter that despite the disastrous consequences of the US sanctions on the Venezuelan economy, the Venezuelan people have made positive progress in resisting the sanctions based on their national interests. At the same time, the national economic recovery plan implemented has achieved good results, such as the increase in production in the oil sector in Venezuela. Fernando Battista said Venezuela could not base its future development on relying on the United States to lift sanctions, and that "it should prepare for the worst while maintaining hope."
A lesson from the past: The United States has also pledged to lift sanctions on Iran
In July 2015, Iran signed the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) with the United States, China, the United Kingdom, France, and Russia, pledging to reduce the scale of uranium enrichment in exchange for the lifting of sanctions by the international community, including the United States. But in 2018, the then US leader Trump fully reinstated sanctions against Iran while Iran still abides by its commitments.
The analysis pointed out that considering Iran's experience, the partial lifting of sanctions against Venezuela by the United States since October 2023 should not be considered as the willingness of the United States to develop relations with Venezuela on the basis of mutual respect. Instead, the United States thinks about its own interests.
Venezuelan Maduro urged the United States to lift illegal sanctions against Venezuela.
Brian Winter, editor-in-chief of the American Quarterly, recently wrote an article pointing out that as the United States enters the first year of 2024, the partial lifting of sanctions against Venezuela by Biden in the United States has multiple purposes, both for the United States to get more oil in the context of the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict and other international conflicts; It is also hoped that the lifting of some sanctions will improve the economic situation of Venezuela and stop the influx of migrants to the United States.
Ali Sachi, an Iranian political analyst, told the reporter that the partial relaxation of sanctions by the United States is not for the sake of democracy in Venezuela, and the lesson of the past is that the United States invaded Iraq under the pretext of democracy, which eventually led to the spread of terrorism and extremism in the Middle East, and "the United States is not qualified to educate Venezuela on how to develop democracy."
Ali Saki also said that Venezuela should learn from the experience of the United States once lifting sanctions against Iran and then reverting to its old tactics. The United States is not concerned about the livelihood of Venezuela, and the lifting of some sanctions is only due to the need to rely on Venezuela's oil and gas resources to calm the high oil prices caused by the Western world's collective boycott of Russian oil and gas resources.
Bobbi Nadley, an international commentator based in London who has long been concerned about US-Iran relations, told reporters that the lifting of some sanctions is an attempt by the United States to force Venezuela to take a position, and the biggest lesson that Iran can provide to Venezuela is that the United States often "loses its trust" in the implementation of international treaties, which makes Venezuela pay attention to maintaining a cautious and pragmatic attitude when responding to the lifting of sanctions by the United States.
Bobby Nadley also said that the example of Iran also proves the need to promote economic development and diversify exports and reduce overdependence on Western markets in response to US sanctions. (Reporter Lei Xiangping).
*: CCTV news client).