**: Bright people are discerning.
A friend asked, what do you think of the United States' listing of China as a rival country?
Although I noticed the news at the first time, I did not comment on it at the first time because I felt that it was too normal for the United States to do this, and it would be abnormal not to do it.
Since a friend asked this question, let's do a little analysis and share a little personal thinking.
Politicians in the United States have long made remarks that China is a competitor, and their vigilance against China has never ceased, and there is one thing that the United States can learn from China is that it has not forgotten its sense of danger in its heyday. Himself is in the strongest international position, and still does not forget to look for and find opponents in the world. Countries that can make the United States feel threatened by their current strength and future potential, whether in terms of their current strength or future potential, will be regarded by the United States as their strategic competitors. China has always been on the list of U.S. adversaries, and the U.S. has not been wary of China until it is too strong to challenge the U.S.-led national order, and at the most calm and "harmonious" stage of Sino-American relations.
The only surprise is that although the United States has always been wary of China, it has overestimated its ability to control the situation, and of course underestimated China's development potential and rise speed. It's not that the United States doesn't see the problem, but that the severity of the problem is underestimated. The United States believes that by guiding China onto the road of reform and opening up, China will follow the reform trajectory that the United States hopes for until it reaches the state of collapse that the United States wants, so as to achieve victory against China without a fight. This set went very smoothly in the Soviet Union and relatively smoothly in China for a time, and although the United States noticed China's development, it was confident that it would be able to make China develop into a trap. After the end of the Cold War between the United States and the Soviet Union, the reason why the United States did not continue the Cold War with China was because the United States saw from the Soviet Union that it had a more cost-effective means than the Cold War, that is, to guide China's reform and put China on the road to the collapse of the Soviet Union.
I absolutely do not believe that the Soviet Union had irreconcilable contradictions within the socialist system and that it encountered problems that could not be solved within the system, and that the Soviet Union had many problems at that time, but it was definitely not more problems than those of the United States, let alone more problems than the union republics after the collapse of the Soviet Union. The problems of the Soviet Union could have been solved or alleviated by reforms aimed at perfecting itself, but Gorbachev's new thinking on reform began to fully embrace Western theories, and reforms moved in the direction of total self-denial. It's like when a person gets a cold, he dislikes his body and thinks that it's not the virus that should be killed, but himself. It is strange that the USSR did not die.
The United States firmly believes that strong private capital is the biggest opponent of China's system, and it will become a powerful force to promote the transformation of China's system, and private capital can penetrate power through the penetration of power, so that capital and power can be combined more and more closely, and power has developed from serving capital to power controlling capital. The power of capital is the end point of reform that the United States hopes China's reform can reach. As long as China's reforms follow the roadmap that the United States hopes to reach the destination it wants, the United States will be able to win without a fight. On the one hand, because capital controls China, American capital can control China as a country by controlling China's capital, and on the other hand, in the process of controlling China, capital will let China's internal contradictions develop to an irreconcilable degree in the process of reconstructing social interests and rebuilding order, resulting in violent political and social conflicts.
However, as one person said, the United States has gradually discovered that it has exhausted all its strength to pull both of China's legs into the orbit it wants to design for China, and once it was secretly happy to pull one leg of China into the orbit, and on the other hand, it was annoyed that it has not been able to pull the other leg over. Seeing that China has grown up, the United States has found something even worse, and its own physique is not as strong as before.
The United States now really feels the challenge and the threat.
China's industrial scale has surpassed that of the United States, becoming the new world factory, with a more complete industrial chain than the United States, China's bones have been strong, China's yuan is still aiming at the status of the dollar, China is still making a difference, through the "One Belt, One Road" strategy, reshaping the world order, the establishment of a "community with a shared future for mankind", China's goal of national rejuvenation, and the global interests of the United States, have conflicted. This is because, according to the United States, China's reform must not only follow the American track, but China's development must not go beyond the boundaries allowed by the United States. According to the facts exposed by Jin Yinan's article, American experts on China made it clear to him as early as 2002: If you don't go south of the Himalayas and east of the Taiwan Strait, China and the United States will be at peace. The scope of development set by the Americans for China is so hegemonic that even Taiwan is not allowed to be reunified. China's national rejuvenation naturally has structural contradictions with US hegemony.
China's current strength has far exceeded the extent allowed by the United States, and the boundaries of China's interest expansion have long exceeded the scope of the United States' tolerance, so as early as the Obama era, the United States began to regard China as its main strategic rival and implement the "Asia-Pacific rebalance" strategy, deploying 60% of its overseas military forces to China's periphery. In other words, even if it had not been for Trump's "Strategy Report" to position China and Russia as rival powers of the United States, China would have been treated as a rival country long ago.
The United States has not written this positioning of China on paper, and has begun to do so for a long time. As long as China responds properly, the United States will clearly define its position for China in the ** report, and it will not treat China as a whole.
Since the founding of the People's Republic of China, when has the United States ever given up its vigilance and containment of China? The damage tricks that can be used have been used a long time ago. So there's nothing surprising about that.
What is strange is that the United States has gone so far as to establish China and Russia as rival countries at one time and make them public in a report.
In any case, this cannot be seen as the mastery of the US strategy, and I believe that it is a reflection of the current domestic political dilemma of the US in its foreign policy. There is no doubt that Trump wants to have good relations with Russia, so the United States can regard China as its main strategic rival and concentrate resources and forces to contain China's rise. However, the establishment in the United States has used a "Russiagate" to seal the space for détente between the United States and Russia. Trump's initial staff was mainly pro-Russian and advocated containing China as the main foreign strategy, and I believe this also reflects Trump's original intention. However, the domestic political struggle in the United States has pushed US-Russian relations to deteriorate, Trump's pro-Russian policy cannot be implemented, and the US-Russia war is ongoing, and the strategy of containing China cannot be fully implemented. Because the existing strength of the United States cannot contain China and Russia at the same time. On the contrary, as long as the United States confronts China and Russia at the same time, the United States will accelerate the consumption of its national strength and will fall into overall strategic passivity. In the current evolution of the international situation, the United States has not achieved much in containing China in the Asia-Pacific region, and has lost too many points in the Middle East, which also reflects the strategic passivity brought about by the strategic mistakes of the United States. Now, the United States has written its own strategic mistakes in the report, and I don't think that's a bad thing for China. The principle is simple: if the United States sees China only as its main strategic rival, then it is bad news for China. But if the United States regards both China and Russia as adversaries, it will be a major benefit. Moreover, by doing so, the United States is tantamount to reminding the Chinese that their desire to die has never died, which is conducive to dispelling the illusions of some Chinese people about the United States.
In fact, does the United States still have enough initiative in the face of China and Russia in the global game? I think that now the United States has gone from being active to being passive through a dizzying array of maneuvers. These are also the ones we have analyzed before: in addition to confronting China and Russia at the same time, in the Western Pacific, Eastern Europe, and the Middle East; bringing Shia-ruled countries together in the Middle East by supporting ISIS; Recently, it has supported Israel in making Jerusalem the capital and turning itself into an enemy of the entire Islamic world, and the United States has fallen into unprecedented isolation when the Security Council resolution on Jerusalem was voted on a few days ago: 1 to 14; As early as the Paris climate agreement, it announced that it would withdraw unilaterally, which made the trust of European allies in the United States decline.
The United States still has an advantage in strength in the face of any country in the world, but what the United States is doing now is not to use one to two, but to change to one to many. Judging from the US strategy report, the United States will continue this strategy.
Therefore, there is no need to worry too much about whether the United States will launch a full-scale confrontation with China. Under the current US strategy, the United States does not have the conditions for all-out confrontation with China. Unless, the United States can warm up relations with Russia in an all-round way, correct its previous strategic mistakes, and unite forces that can be united to isolate China to the greatest extent. And Trump, who is suspected of being a "Russian traitor", may not have such political conditions during his term of office. The United States has pushed more countries against each other, and this is an opportunity for China to build an international united front. By the end of Trump's term, the United States wants to change course, and the window for the United States to use its advantage in strength to contain China may be permanently closed. The U.S. establishment and Trump's tug-of-war have created another few years of strategic opportunity for China.
The fact that the United States will not fully confront China does not mean that the United States will not create trouble for China on financial and security issues. The United States, which has already refused to grant China full market economy status, cannot rule out the possibility of a first-class war, an economic, a financial war, and a first-class war with China. The United States will also continue to challenge China's core interests, such as the Taiwan issue. However, I still believe that the fact that the United States wants to play the Taiwan card to contain China shows that the United States is really anxious, and on the other hand, it also shows that the United States has run out of options.
I'm not a pessimist, but I'm not an optimist either, and China now has the best opportunity and the biggest challenge. The external is the opportunity greater than the challenge, and the internal is the challenge is not less than the opportunity. China is closer than ever to the goal of the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation, but the challenges and risks it faces are no smaller than ever.
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Comments:
1. You pseudo-scholars, few BBs, * saw many years ago that imperialism is not dead -- treating others with all its might.
2, ** son is China's first enemy, don't advocate Sino-Russian cooperation all day long, people are not as stupid as us--sjw4682
3. Sofa, well, whether the Chinese nation can be rejuvenated and whether it can bring down the United States is a test of the wisdom and ability of the country's leaders. --And giving.
4. Today's world is a typical Romance of the Three Kingdoms. Wu Shu united against Cao. The alliance must be unbreakable, or it will be broken by each one. --Shao shwg
5. The author's analysis is very good, the United States forgets China's heart for a day, and China must always be vigilant. --The greatness of an era.
6. If the United States uses military means against China, then we will not have burning sticks in our hands, if you hit your atomic bomb, I will fight my grenade bomb, in short, you will fight as long as the United States wants, and we will accompany you to the end until complete victory! --Lu Yitong 2u
7, steady, should eat, drink, all bluff--netizen a6cd9a26b8d
8. This is a dry article, you can like --debufman
9. China is now rising, and even surpassing the United States in the future, do not destroy the United States by itself, but destroy the United States with the strength of the world, so as to achieve the effect that the enemy is dead and I am not tired. --Happiness drifting with the wind.
10. Long live the motherland! --Mr. Aika's card.
11. Recovering Taiwan. --Brother Hu Gandi.
12. Paralysis, only to cut trillions of wool--zbp888886
13. Soldiers come to fight, and water comes to kill. --Brother Hu Gandi.
14. Americans, China is not in the eyes at all. --kentai1119
15, the history of fame - netizen 14c3385
16. A rare good article, which is analyzed very thoroughly. --Reminiscing about the little white of the year.
17. Correct solution - the tiger's body keeps shaking.
18. Insightful thinking post, like! --Yu Xiux
19,! --Beijing 54188
20. Like!- Inaction is crazy.