Judging from the PMI of the steel industry surveyed and released by the China Federation of Iron and Steel Logistics Professional Committee, it will be 46% in February 2024, the same as the previous month. The changes in the sub-index show that affected by the Spring Festival holiday, the off-season characteristics of the steel industry are still relatively obvious, the steel market demand continues to decline, but the steel production is relatively stable, the steel inventory has increased, the raw materials have declined significantly, the steel market as a whole continues to run weakly. With the arrival of the traditional peak season of "Golden Three Silver Four", can steel prices appear and usher in the spring of the steel market?
The billet fell 190 in two months!
According to the above data, since entering 2024, steel prices have first reached the highest point of the year at 3,700 yuan, and then operated weakly, falling to the lowest point of 3,510 yuan tons on February 26In two months, the billet ** went from the highest point of 3700 to the lowest point of 3510, a decrease of 190 yuan tons
At the beginning of the year, it was a cold winter and the rain and snow weather increased, and the Spring Festival was approaching, the construction site and steel traders stopped work in advance, the steel demand continued to decline, the terminal demand shrank sharply, and the steel mill suffered serious losses, and the production momentum of the steel mill was not strong, and the overall situation was in a downturn.
Profitability has picked up
With the end of the Spring Festival, the weather is gradually warmer, the demand for the starting season is gradually recovering, and the profitability of steel enterprises has also ushered in a recovery. According to the latest survey data on March 1, the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 7519%, a decrease of 044%, a decrease of 588%；The capacity utilization rate of blast furnace ironmaking is 8334%, a decrease of 025%, a year-on-year decrease of 381%；The profitability of the steel mill is 2727%, an increase of 259%, a year-on-year decrease of 1559%；The average daily output of hot metal is 222860,000 tons, a decrease of 0660,000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 11500,000 tons.
According to the survey results on February 28, the average cost of molten iron excluding tax in Tangshan's mainstream sample steel mills this week was 2,877 yuan tons, and the average cost of billet including tax was 3,706 yuan tons, which was 58 yuan tons lower than that of the previous week, compared with the current 3,550 yuan tons of billet ex-factory on February 28The average loss of steel mills was 156 yuan tons, a decrease of 68 yuan tons week-on-week.
From the above two sets of data, it can be seen that the profitability of steel mills has increased from 24 in the previous period68%** to 2727%, an increase of 259%。In addition, the accounting results of billet cost and ex-factory price show that the loss of selling a ton of steel is 156 yuan, although it is still a loss, but the loss value is decreasing, and there are signs of recovery.
Production will be discontinued at the beginning of the year, and the maximum production will be 110 days
As of March 1, 11 domestic steel mills have released shutdown and maintenance information. Among them, Guangdong Zhongnan Iron and Steel Co., Ltd. *** No. 6 blast furnace planFrom February 26 to April 2, the furnace was shut down for overhaul for 36 days, which is expected to affect the average daily output of hot metal by 0350,000 tons. In addition, the reel rolling line will take turns to stop production during this period. Previously, shagang entered a state of shutdown and maintenance at the beginning of the year, and a 5800m blast furnace was shut down for maintenance until mid-MarchThe turnaround time is up to 110 days, which is expected to affect the daily production of hot metal 1270,000 tons.
Steel prices in March**
In the traditional cognition, the "Golden Three Silver Four" is the explosive period of the steel industry, but as far as the current steel ** is concerned, the "Golden Three" may not be very optimistic.
On the demand side:
It is expected that in March, the recovery of steel market demand may be relatively weak. After the Spring Festival factor has fully subsided, the gradual resumption of work and production of steel-using enterprises in various places will drive the recovery of steel demand, but due to the suspension and slowdown of major infrastructure projects in many places, this part of the steel demand will be reduced accordingly. In addition, despite the continuous relaxation of real estate policies in various places, the overall transaction is still not optimistic, and the real estate investment has tightened, and the real estate demand is still not optimistic after the resumption of construction. It is expected that steel demand will rebound in March, but the recovery may be relatively weak.
Aspects:
It is expected that steel mills will resume production slowly, and the recovery will be limited. Before the holiday, the blast furnace maintenance of steel mills is more, and it will gradually return to normal after the holiday, the current raw materials have also declined, the cost pressure of enterprises has been reduced, and the enthusiasm for the production of steel enterprises has been driven, but the lack of market demand still exists, and the profits of steel mills are poor, and the speed of resumption of production of steel mills has decreased significantly, which shows that the pace of resumption of production of steel mills is slow, and the overall supply recovery is limited.
In terms of raw materials:
Raw materials are under pressure and cost support is weakened. Although the current iron ore ** has declined, there is still a certain distance from the normal ** range, and there is still room for decline. At the same time, steel mills in some parts of North China have opened the fourth round of coke procurement, and the coke steel game has intensified, with the slow pace of blast furnace resumption after the holiday, coke demand has been under pressure to a certain extent, and the overall raw materials are expected to decline further.
Macro Information:
Entering March, the high-level meeting may bring substantial benefits at the macro level, and it is expected that steady growth will still be the main tone of the meeting, and the domestic macro environment will continue to be warm. Against the backdrop of an active fiscal policy and an accommodative monetary policy,Positive expectations remain
On the one hand, although the current steel fundamentals are still showing a weak pattern, but with the passage of time, the resumption of work at downstream construction sites has improved, steel has entered the peak consumption season, and the industrial contradiction has gradually weakened. On the other hand, although the current terminal consumption is gradually recovering, the overall construction progress is slow, and the new projects are insufficient, so it is difficult for consumption to have room for substantial growth. The fundamental contradiction continues to intensify, and the upward driving force of steel prices is insufficientIt is expected that the trend of steel prices in March may be weak as a whole**