1. The development trend of the global energy sector in 2023
With the formation of a new energy** pattern of "Europe to the west and Russia to the east", the world is entering a transition period to reduce the use of fossil fuels. In 2023, the weak global economic recovery, the intensification of the game between major powers, and the expansion of security conflicts have jointly shaped a profoundly changing energy development environment.
The sanctions caused by the Russia-Ukraine conflict have caused the United States and Western countries to reduce their dependence on Russian fossil fuels and turn to other countries*** The United States, with its abundant energy resources, has successfully become the world's largest LNG exporter, with more than 6% of its exports sold to Europe. At the same time, oil has become the largest export commodity for the United States, with significant growth in both its exports and refined products.
In the face of sanctions, Russia has adopted a diversified export strategy, not only increasing energy exports to China, but also developing Arctic shipping lanes and strengthening exports to countries such as India. OPEC countries, led by Saudi Arabia, are trying to control international oil prices, and despite disagreements with European countries on the development of fossil fuels at COP28, they finally reached a consensus to transition away from fossil fuels.
In the context of climate change, major countries are accelerating the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions, expanding the deployment of clean energy, and strengthening greenhouse gas control. The United States** released a blueprint for the decarbonization of the transportation sector and an offshore wind energy development strategy, while strengthening international consensus and leadership on methane emission reduction. The European Union (EU) has passed a series of proposed carbon reduction legislation, accelerated the deployment of renewable energy and hydrogen, and launched the Global Renewable Energy and Energy Efficiency Pledge Initiative at COP28. The United Kingdom and South Korea have also announced plans for energy security and net-zero emissions and carbon neutrality and green development, respectively.
Looking to the future, the global energy sector will continue to develop in the direction of clean, low-carbon and efficient. The use of fossil fuels will gradually decrease, and renewable energy will occupy an increasingly important position. At the same time, with the continuous advancement of technology and the reduction of costs, energy storage technology and smart grids will become the key to supporting the energy transition.
In addition, the importance of international cooperation in the field of energy will become even more prominent. In the face of common climate challenges, countries need to strengthen policy coordination and technical cooperation to jointly promote the process of global energy transition. The goals of promoting energy security, environmental protection and sustainable development are expected to be achieved through strengthened international energy cooperation.
To sum up, in 2023, the global energy sector will show a development trend of accelerated transformation, diversified exports, and strengthened international cooperation. Looking ahead, a clean, low-carbon, and efficient energy system will become dominant, and international cooperation will be the key to promoting the energy transition.
2. Trends in the development of nuclear power in the global clean energy transition
With the deepening of the global clean energy transition, nuclear power as a stable and efficient form of energy is gaining increasing attention. Many countries have seen nuclear power as the key to achieving energy transition and combating climate change, and have stepped up their efforts to support the development of nuclear power.
As the world's largest nuclear power producer, the United States is actively promoting the development and deployment of advanced nuclear energy projects while maintaining the operation of existing reactors. The United States** not only launched the Nuclear Energy Credit Program, but also issued the Triple Nuclear Energy Declaration with 21 other countries during COP28, which plans to triple the installed capacity of nuclear power by 2050 compared to 2020. In addition, the United States has worked with a number of countries to improve uranium enrichment and conversion capabilities, and has published the Phase 1 Advanced Reactor Roadmap, which provides strategic support for the large-scale deployment of advanced reactors.
There are differences within the EU on nuclear power, but countries that support nuclear power, such as France, are working hard to improve the status of nuclear power in the EU's energy mix. France has issued the Accelerating Nuclear Energy Development Act and abandoned the goal of reducing the share of nuclear power, while introducing a series of measures to support new nuclear power projects. Italy also plans to return to the field of nuclear power, allowing the introduction of *** nuclear power technology. In the UK, nuclear power is classified as an "environmentally sustainable" energy source within the green energy spectrum, encouraging private sector investment in nuclear power projects.
Canada, for its part, launched the Small Modular Reactor Support Program (SMR) to accelerate the development of small reactor technology to address energy demand and environmental challenges. In the context of energy shortage, Japan has changed its nuclear power policy, restarted nuclear power construction, and plans to increase the proportion of nuclear power generation to 20%-22% by 2030. South Korea has also identified the importance of nuclear power in its energy mix, with plans to increase the share of nuclear power to 32 by 2030 and 2036, respectively4% and 346%, and actively participate in the research and development and cooperation of international nuclear power projects.
To sum up, the global development of nuclear power is ushering in a new period of opportunities. Many countries** have promoted the innovation and deployment of nuclear power technology through policy support and financial investment to achieve the goals of clean energy transition and climate change. In the future, with the continuous advancement of technology and the reduction of costs, nuclear power is expected to occupy a more important position in the global energy structure.
3. Outlook for the development trend of the global energy sector in 2024
1. Clean energy transition and chain security
With the growing global concern about climate change, the United States and Western countries are accelerating the pace of clean energy transition. Driven by the Inflation Reduction Act and the Bipartisan Infrastructure Act, the United States has vigorously supported the development of domestic clean energy and built a resilient clean energy chain. The goal is to deploy 475 GW of new PV and 250 GW of wind power by 2030, and to build 14 million light electric vehicles.
The EU has also set a target in the Net Zero Industry Act to significantly increase local manufacturing of clean technologies, with plans to achieve 40% of PV, 50% of green hydrogen electrolyzers, 60% of heat pumps, and 85% of wind turbines and batteries manufactured in the EU by 2030. This reflects the importance attached to the security of the clean energy chain.
However, while promoting the clean energy transition, the United States and Western countries have also taken a series of measures to curb China's development in the clean energy sector. On the grounds of "affecting the best subsidies to distort the market", "the chain is not green", "carbon emission intensity exceeds the standard", etc., measures have been taken against China's electric vehicles, power batteries, photovoltaics and other fields, and their own interests have been safeguarded through protectionist means.
2. The global race for hydrogen energy development
As a clean and efficient form of energy, hydrogen energy is receiving extensive attention and support from major countries around the world. The United States, the European Union, Japan, South Korea and other countries have released hydrogen energy development strategies to increase research and development and investment in hydrogen energy.
The United States** has released the National Clean Hydrogen Strategy and Roadmap, which clarifies the strategic position of clean hydrogen in the future energy mix and proposes a comprehensive development framework to accelerate the production, processing, delivery, storage and use of clean hydrogen. At the same time, the United States** has also provided $7 billion in support funding to seven regional clean hydrogen centers to advance the development and deployment of hydrogen technologies.
The EU has also defined green hydrogen and its derivatives and launched the EU Hydrogen Bank pilot project to provide high subsidies to green hydrogen producers. Germany, Denmark, Norway and other countries are also actively carrying out hydrogen energy cooperation projects, building offshore wind power hydrogen production facilities and submarine hydrogen pipelines.
In addition, countries such as Australia, South Korea, and Japan also plan to introduce hydrogen-related subsidy policies in 2024 to promote the development of the hydrogen energy industry.
3. The acceleration of the fusion energy race
As a potential form of clean energy, fusion energy is attracting the attention and investment of global science and technology powers. The United States, the United Kingdom, Germany, Japan and other countries have raised the development of fusion energy to a strategic level, and increased their R&D and investment.
The United States** has provided substantial support for fusion energy development through the topic "Fusion Energy Science" and is developing a regulatory framework for fusion energy to reduce regulatory uncertainty. The UK** has supplemented fusion energy funding and launched a number of projects to promote the development and commercialization of fusion energy-related technologies. Germany** also announced that it will increase investment in fusion energy research to support the development of various fusion energy technology routes.
At the same time, the number of fusion energy companies in the world continues to increase, the amount of financing is growing rapidly, and new technologies are constantly emerging. These trends herald an acceleration in the global race for fusion energy.
Summary
To sum up, the global energy sector will show trends in 2024, such as clean energy transition, the global race for hydrogen energy development, and the acceleration of the fusion energy race. With the continuous advancement of technology and the continuous promotion of policies, we have reason to believe that the future energy structure will be cleaner, more efficient and more sustainable. However, it is also necessary to pay attention to the challenges and problems that may arise during the transformation process, such as the security of the ** chain, technical bottlenecks, capital investment, etc. Therefore, countries need to strengthen cooperation and exchanges to jointly address these challenges and promote the sustainable development of the global energy sector.
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