Entering March, the heat in the United States is gradually heating up, and after "Super Tuesday", the situation of the Biden vs Trump showdown may be further clarified. In addition, since the New Year, the frequency of targeted policies issued by the United States on China has increased marginally, and it has shown new characteristics of multi-sectoral comprehensive linkage, focusing on the semiconductor and manufacturing fields, with the intention of structurally reducing the dependence on China's ** chain step by step, and some recent policies have led to an increase in the volatility of China's assets. At the same time, the newly released incremental content of the list of key and emerging technologies in the United States is mainly focused on the fields of advanced computing, data network security, communication network technology, and space technology, and new positioning and navigation timing technologies have been added. It is recommended to pay attention to the industrial competition in the above-mentioned industries.
At present, the market liquidity concerns have subsided, and the market driving force will move from the logic of "liquidity replenishment" to the logic of "economic fundamentals". In addition, in the "liquidity replenishment" stage, the market performance is generally rising**, and the differentiation is not obvious; However, in the "economic fundamentals-driven" stage, the market is more reflected in the structural **, and the high-prosperity sector will achieve excess returns. This week, the market will enter the "National Two Sessions" trading window, focusing on the theme of the two sessions and the expected difference in policy expressions, and the market is expected to maintain a wide range. At present, the relative rate of return of stocks and bonds has been at a historical high, and the value of asset allocation has been highlighted in the medium and long term
1) TMT plate. On the one hand, the world is currently in the wave of artificial intelligence industry, which is expected to give rise to new industrial chains and business models. On the other hand, China is in a critical period of independent and controllable industrial chain, and the technology industry will usher in rapid development. The TMT sector can focus on optical modules on the hardware side, computers on the software side, and media on the application side.
2) New energy track. The global new energy revolution is in the ascendant, although the domestic new energy industry has global advantages, but the sector is obviously over-falling, there is a large potential for valuation repair, you can pay attention to photovoltaics, new energy vehicles, lithium batteries and other tracks;
3) Biomedical sector. At present, the pharmaceutical sector has fully reflected the pressure brought about by policies such as centralized procurement and medical anti-corruption. With the Fed's interest rate cut expectations heating up and the industry's prosperity rebounding, the biomedical sector is expected to usher in valuation and performance recovery, such as innovative drugs and CXOs;
4) Foreign capital heavy position. With the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates, the warming of Sino-US relations, and the improvement of market expectations, it is expected that foreign capital will re-flow into A-shares in 2024, focusing on liquor, home appliances and other sectors favored by foreign investors.
According to the National Bureau of Statistics' 2022 urban and rural household household ownership of major electrical appliances, combined with the total number of households, urbanization rate and other data, the total number of major appliances (as shown in the figure below) is calculated, and at the same time, assuming that the renewal cycle of major electrical appliances is 12 years, the demand brought by the trade-in of each category to drive the annual renewal volume is calculated.
Among them, due to the high number of TV sets, but the lowest sales in history, we estimate that the trade-in policy has the strongest driving force, and when the trade-in drives the % of annual renewal volume, the replacement demand accounts for 12% and 24% respectively.
The coal stocks** that started in September 2023 and continue into 2024 have long since moved away from the traditional investment framework. We believe that behind the ** is not only the deep-seated changes in the long-term supply and demand structure of the coal industry, but also the changes caused by the current investors. The future upward elasticity of the supply side of the coal industry is small, the long-term tight balance between supply and demand, stronger earnings predictability, ultra-long-term operating assets, and the gradual increase in the dividend rate of the sector, the "stable and high-dividend" asset of coal, the reshaping of valuation may have just begun. Recommended: 1) High-quality faucets with high profitability stability and profit predictability; 2) Recommend the integration of coal and electricity; 3) Recommend long-term coking coal; 4) Recommend central enterprises to improve quality and efficiency; 5) High dividends are recommended.