If you want to know more exciting content, come and pay attention to my steel Recently, among the non-mainstream countries of iron ore, India, Liberia and Sweden have reported some disturbance information that is difficult to distinguish between true and false, mainly including "India bans iron ore exports", "Liberia and Sweden have railway derailments" and other related news, mysteel for the first time to verify, the survey results show that the former is very unlikely, and the latter is not groundless.
Specifically, Mysteel's global shipment data shows thatFrom January to February, the iron ore shipments of Liberia and Sweden were affected by many factors, but the iron ore shipments from India remained normal and higher than the same period last year, and the shipments from other major non-mainstream** countries in January and February still showed a year-on-year growth trend, and the overall increase was more obvious (Table 1). Specifically, in the first two months, the total shipment volume of non-mainstream ** countries was 466380,000 tons, an increase of about 30% year-on-year, in addition to India's main contribution to the increase, South Africa, Peru, Sierra Leone and Ukraine are outstanding. Therefore, we judge that the reduction of iron ore shipments from Liberia and Sweden has completely negligible disturbance to the overall non-mainstream**
Table 1: Iron ore in non-mainstream countries
Data**: General Administration of Customs, mysteel
Next, this article will analyze the specific situation of each of the three countries.
Liberia: Under the multi-factor disturbance, iron ore shipments in January and February hit a new low in the same period in the past four years
According to Mysteel's latest statistics, Liberia's iron ore shipments in January and February were split by 1050,000 tons and 680,000 tons, a sharp decrease of 758% and 86%, the lowest levels of shipments in the same period in the past four years.
According to Mysteel's research, the decline in shipments to Liberia was mainly affected by derailment accidents, weather factors and logistics constraints. ArcelorMittal Liberia (AML), a major local iron ore producer in Liberia, suffered two ** car derailments in November 2023 and February 20, 2024: the former caused severe damage to the double-track railway bridge connecting Nimba and Bong counties, and did not resume normal operation until the end of January 2024, and the impact lasted for a long time; The latter accident resulted in a leak of iron ore during transport and the destruction of part of the track, and the trains on the Yekepa-Buchanan transport line have completely ceased operation and are expected to resume normal transportation in March. In addition, there are reports that stormy weather at the end of January 2024 hit Nimba County, where the AML iron ore project is located, may also have a certain impact on AML iron ore production and transportation.
At the same time, the producer of another iron ore project in Liberia said that the transportation of iron ore has been hindered to some extent due to current logistics restrictions, and the specific recovery time is not yet clear.
Sweden: The derailment had a limited impact on Swedish iron ore shipments
It was reported on February 28 that four days after re-commissioning, another derailment occurred on the iron ore transport line in northern Sweden on February 24, and it is unclear when the track damage caused by the latest derailment will be able to start repairing and when the railway will be able to resume normal traffic.
As early as December 17, 2023, the railway had already suffered a derailment accident that resulted in the destruction of 15 kilometers of track, and after more than two months of suspension and repairs, the railway resumed operations on February 20, 2024. The derailment affected the company's iron ore shipments as local iron ore producer LLAB used the railway to transport iron ore products to the port of Narvik.
In its 2023 annual report, LKAB noted that while the derailment in December somewhat limited its iron ore shipments in the fourth quarter of 2023, the impact will be more felt in the first quarter of 2024. LKAB's latest quarterly report showed that the company's iron ore shipments in the fourth quarter of 2023 were 6.5 million tons, an increase of 32%, an increase of 1 year-on-year6%。
The two derailments, the old and the new, are expected to reduce Sweden's iron ore shipments in the first quarter.
India: India's steel minister has denied that India is considering banning the export of low-grade iron ore
Recently, there have been news reports that due to China's strong demand for iron ore, in order to stabilize the stability of iron ore in India, Indian steel mills have proposed to ban iron ore exports.
According to Mysteel's latest research, this move is currently only a proposal by local steel mills, and the official has not adopted relevant documents or implemented relevant policies. Meanwhile, the latest reports show that India's steel minister, Nagendra Nath Sinha, said that a ban on the export of low-grade iron ore with a grade below 58% was not being considered.
In addition, at present, India's tariffs are mainly aimed at high-grade iron ore exports, and the cancellation of low-grade iron ore export tariffs has been implemented for less than a year, and tariffs are not expected to be adjusted in the short term. Even if the tariff adjustment is carried out later, it is expected that the impact of low-grade minerals** will be very limited, and India will not use low-grade ores locally, and as long as China has demand and profits, exports will continue.
On the whole, although the iron ore shipments from Sweden and Liberia in January and February were affected by derailment accidents, logistics restrictions and weather factors, the impact on China's iron ore ** is almost negligible, considering the small volume of iron ore imported by China from the two countries, and once the railway returns to normal, the iron ore exports of the two countries are expected to recover quickly.
In addition, India's iron ore exports remain operating normally and remain strong. According to the latest statistics from Mysteel, from January to February 2024, India's total iron ore shipments totaled 8.75 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 104%, which is at the highest level in the same period in the past four years (Figure 2), and the increase in Indian shipments can fully compensate for the reduction brought by Sweden and Liberia.
Mysteel global shipment data shows that the total iron ore shipment volume of non-mainstream countries in the first two months was 466380,000 tons, an increase of 288% (Figure 3). Considering the successive increase in new production capacity projects in Liberia and the optimistic growth rate of iron ore in India, MySteel estimates that the iron ore shipment volume of non-mainstream countries will reach 7091 in the first quarter40,000 tons, an increase of 207%, which will remain relatively sufficient.
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