Recently, the ** of A-shares is regarded as a stage driven by "risk appetite recovery + liquidity repair". IFC believes that the healthy development of the A** field still needs to be reformed, and it is recommended to seize the institutional opportunities from three aspects: first, the vertical and horizontal comparison of the "repurchase" willingness to dominate the industry; the second is to seize companies whose "payout ratio" tends to improve; The third is to seize the opportunity of the current "repurchase tide".
Pay attention to targets with high repurchase intentions and dividend yields
This round is not only a simple overfall, but also more than a month of restlessness between February and March. In the medium and long term, Zhang Chi, an investment strategy analyst at Guojin**, believes that the healthy development of the A** field still needs to solve the fundamental problem of low rate of return, pay attention to "technology + optional consumption", and compare the "repurchase" willingness to dominate the industry. Pay attention to the medium and long-term dividend opportunities with more real "dividend yield", as well as focus on the direction of low valuation and small and medium-sized caps.
Since October 2023, the national team has made frequent moves, which is similar to the situation from June 2015 to February 2016, which is mainly manifested in four characteristics: 1. The increase in financial stocks runs through the entire "bailout" process. 2. The principle of first priority; 3. Not only pull **, but also save small and medium-sized markets in the later stage; 4. After the market stabilizes, the bailout funds will be mainly "supported but not lifted", but they will not be withdrawn immediately.
Focus on the new quality productivity benefit sector
At the industry level, 30% of the industries recorded positive gains during the year, led by the value style sector, and the growth style was only the communication sector.
It is worth mentioning that, unlike the focus on AI-related main lines in the first to second quarters of 2023, the recent market investment in TMT revolves around multiple directions such as new quality productivity, domestic substitution of semiconductors, and mapping of Chinese and foreign AI industries, which is closer to the fourth quarter of 2023 to a certain extent, which reflects more of the recovery of market risk appetite rather than the real sense of industry drive. At present, the proportion of TMT sector financing** has exceeded that of mid-November 2023, close to the high point of April 2023, and the proportion of turnover has approached December 2023.
Maintain the growth direction of small and medium-sized caps, and focus on the sectors that benefit from new quality productivity. In the short term, IFC believes that it will focus on "small and medium-sized caps + growth", focusing on: 1. The direction of economic structural transformation. electronics, automobiles, machinery, medicine and military industry, especially in the direction of AI; 2. Adapt to small brokerages to enhance the flexibility of the portfolio. In the medium and long term, the direction of domestic economic structural transformation benchmarked by the new quality productivity often corresponds to the continuous rise in the proportion of profits, referring to the Japanese economic structural transformation period from the 70s to the 80s of the last century, as well as the ten-year domestic consumption from 2011 to 2020.
Mou Yiling, an analyst at Minsheng**, said: "The market structure has not reversed, but the theme investment enthusiasm driven by the repair of risk appetite has generally exceeded that in mid-November 2023. After three consecutive weeks of over-falling ** in February, the rise and fall of Wind All A during the year converged to within -5%, and the rise and fall of the CSI 800 equal weight index was restored to 0 value, in contrast, the small-cap stocks represented by the CSI 2000 still fell by nearly 15%. ”
Pay attention to new changes at the policy level
In terms of research and judgment, Li Meicen, an investment strategy analyst at Caitong**, said: "Drawing on the experience of 2016, after exceeding expectations, **bottoming out and rebounding upwards, the style may continue the small market when the recovery is not confirmed**, and then wait for the PPI to pick up and the economic recovery is clearer, and the style will turn **." In the short term, the structure is the mainstay, and further upward repair may require greater thrust and unexpected factors. ”
At present, the focus of brokerages is on the two sessions, and it is recommended that investors pay attention to the new changes at the policy level. Specifically, 1. Economic policy: more than expected policies to boost the economy, if they can be introduced, the market logic will be repaired from risk appetite to fundamental transformation. At this time, the best allocation direction is pro-cyclical and real estate chain. 2. **Policy: The policy exceeds expectations, and the market risk appetite has reached a new level. 3. Monetary policy: loose liquidity. Domestic liquidity continues to cut throughout this year, and interest rates remain optimistic.
Caitong ** believes that in the short term, the small-cap growth represented by science and technology innovation has the strongest valuation and profit double-click odds, and the winning rate is also high at this stage. You can pay attention to AI-related chips, computing power, and servers mapped by overseas industries, and high-end manufacturing with relatively strong performance, such as machine tools, robots, industrial machine tools and other sectors. In the future, we will continue to focus on the direction of guaranteed performance in annual reports and quarterly reports, and remind us to pay attention to the potential risks of performance falling short of expectations. In the medium term, the core assets and dividends will be stronger. There is still a certain consensus on the direction of dividends, and the relative income is basically guaranteed. It is recommended to pay attention to the central enterprises with low dividend volatility and consumption cash flow, the latter of which are mainly concentrated in the central state-owned enterprises of pharmaceuticals and food and beverage.
Reporter Zhang Cao.