From February 26th to 29th, the 2024 Mobile World Congress (MWC2024) was held in Barcelona, Spain. From the advent of ChatGPT to the stunning debut of SORA, the continuous surge of the AI wave seems to have brought new impetus to the growth of the long-sluggish smart terminal market. Is generative AI the key to a new cycle of smartphones?
Due to the decline in consumption power under the influence of the global economy, the lack of explosion points under product homogenization, and the extension of consumers' replacement cycles under the improvement of durability, the global smartphone market has experienced two full years of "sluggishness". According to data from market research institute IDC, the shipment scale of the global smartphone market in 2022 and 2023 will decline by 11% and 3% year-on-year respectively, and the global smartphone shipment in 2023 will hit a new low in a decade. However, with the beginning of a new round of replacement cycle, catalyzed by factors such as the intensive release of new phones by major consumer electronics giants, the global smartphone market has shown signs of recovery in the second half of 2023, and IDC said that smartphones in 2024 will be a year for the market to resume growth.
In addition to the self-correction of the market, global mobile phone manufacturers also hope to take advantage of generative AI to actively lay out a new round of growth cycle. The recent news that Apple has given up building cars and turned to generative AI, as well as the bets of major mobile phone manufacturers such as OPPO, Samsung, Xiaomi, and Honor on AI mobile phones, seem to mean that the AI era of the mobile phone industry is accelerating. According to Counterpoint**, 2024 will be a pivotal year for generative AI smartphones, with more than 100 million units shipped; The global market share of generative AI smartphone shipments will reach 52.2 billion units 40%. AI mobile phones may be expected to open a new era in the smartphone market, forming a catalyst for a new round of replacement cycle.
As many mobile phone manufacturers introduce AI models into mobile phones, the discussion about what is an AI mobile phone is also intensifying. Is it possible to call an AI phone an AI phone with a large AI model and generative AI capabilities? In fact, it is not new for smartphones to be equipped with AI functions, and functions such as voice assistants and automatic translation are the embodiment of their AI technology. At present, some mobile phones equipped with AI large models on the market provide functions such as AI chatbots, image processing, and real-time call translation, which do not seem to bring consumers the perception that AI mobile phones are significantly different from traditional smartphones. Therefore, it does not seem accurate to simply understand an AI phone as a mobile phone equipped with AI functions or AI large models.
OPPO and IDC jointly released "AI mobile phones***" gives four characteristics of the new generation of AI mobile phones: more efficient use of computing resources, keen perception of the real world, strong self-learning ability and abundant creative ability. It can be seen that from smartphones to AI mobile phones, it is not a simple stacking of AI functions, but a comprehensive AI innovation from the underlying hardware to the system OS to the interactive experience. This process is not a one-day process, and whether AI mobile phones can make subversive changes to smartphones still needs to be continuously verified in the process of accelerating product iteration and evolution.
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