Judging from the seemingly uncommon February sales, 2024 will be more difficult than 2023, at least for electric vehicle companies.
Text: "Autobots" Qi Ce.
All day on March 1, when the sales data of electric vehicle companies in February were released, the car circle was quite quiet.
February has become a month of general reluctance to publicize results, even for brands that rank at the top. This strategy should have been set a long time ago, because the latest weekly data has fully demonstrated the negative expectations in February.
The boundaries between the second and third camps disappear
The objective conditions are obvious, the "Spring Festival stall" is 29 days, and there are only 18 working days. The continuous rain and snow from the north to the central part of the country before the Spring Festival not only brought traffic troubles, but also seriously interfered with the frequency of offline customers entering the store.
If the customer only postpones the order, this part of the delayed demand will be reflected in March. Otherwise, these potential needs may be pulled away and there will be no return.
Brand sales are not bad compared with the previous month, and many brands have been "cut to the knees".
This time the faction pattern is more simplified, because of the first.
The second and third camps were compressed together.
The first camp is still Wenjie and ideal, with sales of 21,142 units, a month-on-month increase of 359%；Ideal sales of 20,251 units, month-on-month **350%。Both are at the 20,000+ level, which is another step down from 30,000+ in January. This reflects the narrowing of the overall market demand, especially in the mid-to-high-end new energy market, these two brands are still relatively strong.
Aion continued to maintain its position as the "quasi-first camp", with sales of 16,676 units in February, a month-on-month increase of 332%, basically the same as the first camp to reduce the amount.
Clause. The "10,000 units" of the second and third camps disappeared, and everyone fell below 10,000 units together. NIO sold 8,132 units, a month-on-month increase of 191%；ZEEKR sold 7,510 vehicles, a month-on-month increase of 401%；Leap sold 6,566 vehicles, a month-on-month increase of 465%；Nezha sold 6,085 vehicles, a month-on-month increase of 393%；Xpeng sold 4,545 vehicles, a month-on-month increase of 449%；VOYAH sold 3,182 vehicles, a month-on-month increase of 548%。
It looks bleak. However, the "Spring Festival stalls" are not only a problem of short working days, but also a traditional lack of atmosphere for the consumption of fixed assets.
This is illustrated by the PMI index for February, published by the National Bureau of Statistics: the manufacturing PMI was 491%, down 01 percentage point; The index of business activity was 514%, up 07 percentage points. This is despite the fact that the National Bureau of Statistics (INA) is based on a composite PMI of 509% qualitatively "economic expansion" trend, but bulk consumption and holiday consumption are in a state of trade-off.
On February 29, the China Automobile Dealers Association said that the inventory index of auto dealers in February was 641%, up 60 percentage points. This is stocking up for war or unsalable, it is not easy to distinguish.
A more suitable comparison object is January 2023, which is also in the Spring Festival stall, but few people process data in this way. Although this month is 1 working day longer than February this year, considering that it is in the first place after the epidemic is liberalized, in fact, the consumption atmosphere is not as good as in February this year. This is also evidenced by the data, when the month-on-month declines ranged from 20% to more than 70% (with fewer declines for individual brands with low bases).
Because the Spring Festival has passed in February last year, most of them are year-on-year. The exceptions were Ideal and VOYANT, which grew by 21 year-on-year8%, and VOYAH increased by 187% year-on-year. There is no need to worry too much about the specific growth rate, but both are in structural business expansion, which is no problem.
In fact, there is also the question world, which has undergone earth-shaking changes within a year, from the third echelon of the market to the first echelon, a year-on-year increase of 6 times. This is the result of the whole business factor, the rise of market prestige first, and the take-off of sales last.
After Huawei's mobile phone business was suppressed by the U.S. politics, a breakthrough in the SoC allowed Huawei's consumer business to fully return. How distorted the compression was before, and how sharp the potential energy was released after the return. This is a classic example of an off-market factor disrupting a market: an intervention can work for a while, but it cannot influence the market trend in the medium to long term, provided of course if the ability to hedge the disruptive factor is a problem.
Competitive mode switching
Seasonal and exogenous factors are well known and expected in the industry.
The main sales volume in the industry "kills and falls" atmosphere actually comes from the competition in the same industry. Among the traditional car companies, BYD, Changan, and Wuling all launched price cuts on the second working day after the Spring Festival. As "Autobots" analyzed in the article "The Rise of the ** War, the Acceleration of the Knockout": in terms of subjective purpose, this is a strategic offensive; In terms of objective effect, it is shaking the product system of the entire market.
Entrepreneurial brands have been trying to guide technology competition, which is easy to understand, because they are better at transplanting IT technology to automotive products, and successfully driving the trend of consumption, so that more consumers can recognize the important product value associated with intelligent vehicles and autonomous driving.
The response of traditional car companies is also very simple, that is, relying on the advantage of scale to crush the entrepreneurial brand opponents. It's a lot like an elephant and a tiger fight, and the difference in size between the two sides can be 20 times. The tiger tries to use his skills to the extreme, using the method of "flying a kite", constantly harassing and exhausting the opponent with positioning and tactics. The elephant made a move and drove the other party away on a rampage. The problem is that in this mode of fighting, elephants can make mistakes multiple times, and the consequences of tigers making mistakes are fatal.
BYD marketing executives said that due to the scale effect and the advantages of the whole industry chain, BYD plug-in hybrid** can be lower than fuel vehicles. This is a straightforward statement of intent to emphasize and exploit one's own strengths.
Blockade vs. anti-blockade
At the point where market competition has reached the current point, if it becomes a scale competition as the main axis, then traditional car companies will grasp the strategic initiative. Entrepreneurial brands will be forced to high-end, that is, basically give up the pursuit of quantity.
Forced to go premium" is a point of no return. Whether it is Mercedes-Benz, BMW, Audi or new forces, even if the median ** stands at more than 300,000 yuan, they all hope to extend the product ** range downwards as much as possible. The range covered is basically in a balanced consideration, not only to strive to cover more consumer budgets, but also to consider brand positioning. But in practice, the latter is getting weaker and weaker. Because the brand positioning can be set by the high-end products going up.
In terms of market trends, the growth rate of consumer goods is slowing down in 2024 due to the expected further decline in the economic growth rate. This is contrary to the expansion of entrepreneurial brands aiming at the high-end or quasi-high-end market. At this time, the traditional car companies issued a document on the first war, which significantly worsened the latter's living environment.
If the extension of the product line of the entrepreneurial brand (whether up or down) is blocked, it is equivalent to being confined in a narrow market range by the opponent, and the potential demand that is already shrinking is sucked away by the opponent. This is not to say that startup brands have no brains to expand their product lines. Due to the limitation of resources, the product line at the beginning is very simple, and the SKU is as small as possible, but after reaching the mid-market (for example, the annual sales volume reaches 200,000-300,000 lines), the product line must be expanded.
If the expansion fails, the result is that the cash flow will dry up, which in turn will lead to a business crash. Therefore, the essence of this round of market competition is the struggle between blockade and anti-blockade.
Judging by the seemingly uncommon February sales, 2024 will be more difficult than 2023, at least for startup brands. Without scale effect, the cost cannot be reduced. In the pursuit of scale, it is necessary to rely on orders to maintain. In the whole market, the "self-circulation mechanism" after the triggering of the ** war has been established.
That is to say, if the market is not fully cleared, there will be no absolute calming of the ** war, only a halftime break in order to accumulate the next wave of offensive. 【Copyright Notice】This article is the original manuscript of "Autobots", and it is not allowed to be unauthorized **.