**: People's *** Kitchen - Able to Speak Good Word Studio].
Recently, the China Meteorological Administration issued the "Energy Meteorological Service Action Plan (2024-2027)" (hereinafter referred to as the "Plan"). Among them, it is clear that by 2027, an energy meteorological service system that meets demand, advanced technology and perfect mechanism will be basically built, and the energy meteorological service capacity and efficiency will be significantly improved, providing high-quality meteorological services for energy production, supply, consumption and security. Covering the whole chain and all scenarios of power supply, power grid, load and energy storage, the integrated energy and meteorological service business has been basically established with no gaps in the whole scale of the month and quarter in the short term, and has the ability to monitor and evaluate national wind and solar energy at the hourly and kilometer levels.
According to the reporter of "China Energy News", in recent years, the pace of China's energy transformation has accelerated, and the installed capacity of renewable energy has exceeded that of coal power and continues to increase, but the production, transmission, dispatching and operation of wind power and solar power generation are highly dependent on weather and climate conditions. In the above context, it is imperative to improve the capacity and level of energy meteorological services and build an energy meteorological service system that meets the needs.
Get the most out of your meteorological data.
The plan proposes to strengthen the assessment of climate resources, support the planning and site selection of wind and solar energy, and carry out a new round of detailed investigation of wind and solar resources, meteorological services for the site selection of wind and solar power stations, analysis of meteorological conditions for the planning of important transmission lines, and assessment of the climate and ecological effects of clean energy development.
Monitoring and evaluation has always been an important starting point for China's energy meteorological services, and a series of achievements have been achieved in recent years. Ding Qiushi, deputy chief of the comprehensive promotion section of the wind and solar energy center of the public meteorological service center of the China Meteorological Administration, told the China Energy News reporter that up to now, the meteorological department has a long sequence of wind and solar energy resources census data, fine to the county-level administrative area of the resource development potential evaluation ability, can carry out the county-level administrative area as a unit of the national wind and solar resources detailed exploration and comprehensive evaluation, to help the green and low-carbon transformation of energy.
In February, the China Meteorological Administration released the "2023 Annual Communiqué on China's Wind and Solar Energy Resources", which analyzed the national wind and solar energy resources in 2023 and the changes in average resources in the past 10 and 30 years. This is the 10th time that the China Meteorological Administration has released the communiqué to the industry and the public, aiming to further promote the release of the value of meteorological data.
Ding Qiushi said that this will help scientifically guide the investment, development and efficient operation of the new energy industry. Relevant parties can inspect the superior land of wind and solar energy resources according to the resource situation, and make reference for the site selection and planning of the project in the early stage. For example, she said: "We have carried out region-wide resource assessments in Jilin, Heilongjiang and **, and provided assessment results on the amount of technology development and priority development zones based on local renewable energy resource endowments, as well as land use and ecological protection, to support the implementation of relevant plans." At the same time, the wind and solar energy resource assessment service can also help the differentiated layout of micro site selection, through the refined evaluation of the 100-meter-scale wind and solar resources of the power station under complex terrain, it can give 'customized' design schemes such as wind turbine selection, location arrangement, and wind turbine height, so as to improve the power generation efficiency of the power station. Previously, a wind farm conducted a relevant evaluation, and the theoretical power generation hours of the 'customized' design year could be increased by 22% compared with the conventional design. ”
In addition, the release of the communiqué can help enterprises better review the operation of renewable energy power stations, help enterprises analyze the reasons for changes in power generation, optimize operation and maintenance management, and provide reference for the improvement of power generation and operating efficiency. Ding Qiushi pointed out, "In general, the annual bulletin of wind and solar energy resources has become a 'barometer' and 'weather vane' for the measurement of power generation by industry enterprises." ”
Refined weather services are indispensable.
The plan emphasizes that we will strengthen the refined services of clean energy power generation, help the construction of new power systems, improve the seamless forecasting of wind and solar power generation, continue to carry out the demonstration plan of refined meteorological services for wind and solar power generation, and strengthen the construction of wind and solar power service platforms and hydropower meteorological forecasting services.
Dong Haiping, an expert from the meteorological team of Goldwind Wind Energy Research Institute, said that the meteorological services required by the new energy industry are significantly different from those for the public, and refined meteorological services are essential. "Taking wind speed as an example, the weather forecast only says a few levels of high winds, and the wind speed range has a deviation of a few meters per second. However, for wind farms, wind speed changes of a few tenths of a second may affect the power generation, and wind power generation requires a relatively higher degree of refinement of wind speed forecasting. ”
Ding Qiushi said: "In recent years, the installed capacity of wind power and solar power generation has grown rapidly, and its power generation is greatly affected by meteorological factors. Large-scale wind and solar power generation are connected to the grid, and if the output power is unstable due to weather changes, it may bring challenges to the safety of the power grid. As a result, the demand for power** from companies in the industry has increased significantly. Based on this demand, the China Meteorological Administration organized and implemented a demonstration plan for refined meteorological services for wind and solar power generation, solicited excellent new energy meteorological forecasting technology and methods from national and provincial meteorological departments, and selected the best forecast products, aiming to improve the accuracy of wind and solar forecasting and solve this problem. ”
Ding Qiushi said: "According to the service needs of the industry, we have anchored four tracks: first, wind and solar energy numerical model prediction products; the second is to carry out a short-term revised forecast for a certain station; the third is power**; Fourth, ultra-short-term forecasting. In the future, we will continue to optimize the algorithm model, develop forecasting products covering different time scales, spatial scales, and multiple elements, improve product accuracy, and explore the most competitive products in the market. ”
New energy enterprises are also committed to the combination of production, education and research to promote the improvement of relevant capabilities. Dong Haiping revealed that since 2018, Goldwind has begun to cooperate with enterprises and institutions in the industry, using technology alliances and independent development methods to accumulate meteorology-related data, and also cooperating with universities and other scientific research institutions to evaluate and warn meteorological resources.
Pay attention to the dynamic changes in energy and meteorological demand.
In addition to resource monitoring and evaluation and meteorological forecasting**, energy and power disaster early warning has also attracted the attention of enterprises in the industry. Industry insiders pointed out that in recent years, extreme weather has been frequent, frequent, strong and concurrent, and frequent extreme weather will bring major risks to the supply and demand of new energy, and meteorological services have become a major support for maintaining supply security.
Business products related to meteorological disasters are also a key focus for us. For example, in terms of energy supply, we have launched power load forecasts for high temperatures in summer and cold waves in winter. In terms of energy infrastructure, we have also proposed solutions to the icing of power lines in consideration of ice and snow weather. In addition, we are also continuously promoting the core technology of wind and solar numerical prediction to improve the accuracy of forecasting under transition and disastrous weather such as sand and dust, strong convection, etc. Ding Qiushi said.
Facing the new stage of renewable energy development, Dong Haiping further proposed that the new energy industry's cognition and demand for meteorological services are actually in the process of dynamic change, and meteorological services should continue to expand and deepen.
Taking wind power as an example, first of all, the scope of wind power development is expanding, and the construction sites of wind farms are moving towards special areas such as offshore and Shagehuang, and there are relatively few observation data in the industry, and the wind power industry urgently needs relevant meteorological resources to meet the demand for power generation. Secondly, the iterative update of wind turbine technology, for example, when the wind turbine tower becomes taller, the atmospheric environment it faces also changes, and relevant basic research is urgently needed to meet the application needs of wind turbine technology. Third, the global climate change problem is prominent, and extreme weather such as tornadoes and typhoons are becoming more frequent, and the wind power industry also needs more accurate and timely extreme weather warning services. Finally, under the trend of intelligence and digitalization, the new energy field also needs corresponding layout planning, and meteorological services also need to be organically combined with artificial intelligence to improve environmental adaptability assessment and meteorological disaster risk control, so as to realize the intelligent operation and maintenance management of new energy power generation. Dong Haiping said.
Industry insiders generally believe that the energy meteorological service at the national level has a longer professional accumulation and more resource investment, and hopes to give more support to the new energy industry from the national level, and all parties can work together to provide more refined services.
People's *** Kitchen - Able to Speak Good Way Studio], only represents the author's point of view. The national party media information public platform provides information release and dissemination services.
id：bjh