Viewpoint:The latest official PMI data fell slightly, but it was more affected by seasonality and spring. Caixin has ushered in expansion for four consecutive months, indicating that the overall economic prosperity level is improving. At present, the economic recovery is expected to continue under the policy force. At the bottom of multiple cycles, with the gradual recovery of A-share valuations, strategic allocation opportunities have gradually become prominent. In the short term, the A-shares that have been trimmed in stages have welcomed 4 consecutive yangs, but under the weak upward movement and plate differentiation, the upward trend of the market is slightly weak. Under the day's high level and the turnover falling below the trillion level, this round of ** or gradually enter a high level. Do not blindly chase the rise, you can consider gradually rising ** or out.
The three major indices returned to new highs
Today, the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets both opened low, the Shanghai Composite Index quickly rose and turned red after the opening, while the Shenzhen Component Index has always been running in the green position, and it has also fallen many times during the period, refreshing the intraday low. The turning point occurred around noon, the abnormal movement of the brokerage sector once drove the index to rise rapidly, and the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets immediately rose in a straight line, and the three major indexes have hit new highs in this round. However, since then, as the high level of the brokerage sector has fallen, the index has also fallen and turned green, and the performance of rising and falling has been staged throughout the day.
On the market throughout the day, power equipment led the gains, machinery and equipment, environmental protection, textiles and apparel rose first, steel, non-ferrous metals and public utilities performed slightly, while food and beverages led the decline, media, real estate, medicine and biology and banks declined. In terms of funds, northbound funds saw a slight net inflow, and after the turnover exceeded one trillion yuan for five consecutive trading days, the trading volume of the two cities shrank today and fell below the trillion level.
The "two sessions effect" is obvious
Looking at the market throughout the day, the "two sessions effect" appeared again: on the one hand, the stabilizing effect of the "two sessions" is still the same. According to the logic of history, the market remained stable during the important meeting, and even if it was weak, we still saw the overall stability of the index, which may be related to the market's expectations under the effect of the law, and also related to the key fundsOn the other hand, the concept of related sectors involved in the "two sessions" has strengthened. Compared with the morning of the same day, the new quality productivity concept stocks were all the first, the industrial machinery sector was multi-shared, and the wind, education, photovoltaic and other sectors were active.
Obviously, since the important meeting, the index has remained stable on the whole, and the industry expected by the market has also performed accordingly, which also fully reflects the investment charm of the "two sessions". However, this phenomenon is not absolute, during important meetings in history, the overall performance of the market is flat, but before and after the meeting, the market performance is strong, so it is not possible to blindly think that the market must remain stable during the meeting.
**Fatigue** or gradually into the end
It is worth noting that although the three major indices have hit new highs since the beginning of the day today, the trading volume of the two markets has shrunk. In the past five trading days, the turnover of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets has exceeded one trillion in a row, but today's trading volume has shrunk and lost one trillion. On top of that, the market as a whole is slightly weak: first, the index has weakened its upward impulse. If the index was still a small step up in the past few days, but today it is rising and falling, and the upward force is gradually decaying; Secondly, in addition to the rise of high-dividend assets such as oil and coal, other major weighted sectors ushered in a greater differentiation, which is not conducive to the overall upward trend of the sector; In addition, the hourly tick continues to show a divergence from the top, or indicates that the index is gradually moving into a high level.
Don't blindly chase the swing band to consider** or out of the wait-and-see
Overall, with the continuous upward movement of the index and the lack of upward momentum, we believe that the difficulty of operation is gradually increasing. In particular, under the acceleration of market style rotation and the weak persistence of hot spots, coupled with the increase of overseas risk aversion, we should pay attention to the increase in the amplitude of the relatively high level of the index. Therefore, for strategic investors, we still believe that this is an important allocation period, and investors can still actively sow seeds on dips and look forward to the harvest of the recovery across the board in the future. Swing investors need to pay attention to the fact that the current fundamental repair is not strong, and there may still be constraints on the market.