Why is China s economic growth target still around 5 ?

Mondo Finance Updated on 2024-03-06

The work report on the 5th set the expected target of China's economic growth this year at "about 5%", which is consistent with last year. This decision is a deliberate balancing act, with multiple considerations behind it.

First of all, stabilizing the overall economic situation and promoting high-quality development are the top priorities at present. While China's economy is rebounding, it is also facing challenges such as a complex and severe external environment, insufficient effective demand, and structural contradictions in employment. In order to gain a firm foothold in the fierce international competition, promote the optimization and upgrading of the economic structure, solve the employment problem, and increase residents' income, it is necessary to maintain a certain economic growth rate. As Yang Weimin, vice chairman of the China Center for International Economic Exchanges, said, high-quality development is inseparable from the foundation of development, that is, the increase in GDP. On this basis, we can pursue structural optimization, technological progress, efficiency improvement, and reduction of carbon emissions and pollutant emissions.

Second, setting an economic growth target of "about 5%" is also a need to stabilize expectations and confidence. Zong Liang, chief researcher at the Bank of China, said that this goal is at a high level among the world's major economies, and it sends a clear signal to China at home and abroad: China is still capable of achieving stable economic growth and will continue to play an engine role in the global economy. Dong Yu, executive vice president of the China Development Planning Research Institute of Tsinghua University, also pointed out that this growth target, as a "baton", will guide economic policies in various fields to be aggressive, which is in line with the tone of last year's ** economic work conference "seeking progress in stability, promoting stability with progress, and establishing first and then breaking", which will help boost the confidence of the whole society.

Moreover, this goal is linked to a long-term goal, avoiding putting pressure on the back burner. Although the 14th Five-Year Plan does not set a five-year average annual GDP growth target, considering that China plans to basically achieve socialist modernization by 2035, the annual economic growth rate needs to be kept within a reasonable range. Dong Yu believes that the economic growth target of "about 5%" fully takes into account the requirements of the "14th Five-Year Plan" and the long-term goal of 2035 on the potential economic growth rate. By striving to achieve a relatively high economic growth rate in the early stage, we can avoid the accumulation of pressure and win the opportunity to basically achieve the goal of socialist modernization by 2035.

Finally, there is a solid foundation and capacity to achieve this goal. Against the backdrop of the overall slowdown in world economic growth, China's economic growth rate reached 5.5 percent year-on-year last year2%, outstanding performance in the world. A series of positive signs, such as the recovery of consumption, the steady rise in the total value of imports and exports, and the rebound in investment confidence of private enterprises, have laid the foundation for the economy to continue to improve this year. At the same time, new growth drivers are also growing. The growth rate of investment in China's high-tech manufacturing and high-tech services industries far exceeded the overall level, and the emergence of new industries, new forms of business and new models accelerated, and the pulling effect on economic growth continued to increase. Zong Liang said that despite the challenges, the favorable conditions for China's economy still outweigh the unfavorable factors, and we are confident that we can achieve an economic growth rate of about 5%. The reference to "left and right" also expands the market's elasticity to the "acceptability" of economic growth.

To sum up, setting the expected target of China's economic growth rate at "around 5%" this year is a wise decision that takes into account both reality and the long term. It not only takes into account the need to stabilize the overall economic situation and promote high-quality development, but also takes into account the requirements of stable expectations and confidence; It is not only connected with long-term goals, but also has the foundation and ability to achieve goals. We have reason to believe that with the joint efforts of all Chinese, this goal will be successfully achieved. Original title: "Why is China's economic growth target still "about 5%"? 》

*: China News Service.

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