Beijing, 1 Mar (ZXS) -- Was the winter that just passed cold or warm? How big is the impact of El Niño? On the 1st, the China Meteorological Administration responded to this interpretation.
At a press conference held by the China Meteorological Administration on the same day, Jia Xiaolong, deputy director of the National Climate Center, said that the determination of warm winter is based on the average temperature of the whole winter, and it is compared with the normal year. For example, there are more than 2,500 stations in the country, and if the average winter temperature of a single station exceeds the warm winter threshold of the station (obtained through the three-point probability statistics), it can be defined as a single station warm winter, and if more than half of the stations in the country have a warm winter, it is defined as a national warm winter.
Therefore, even if China has a warm winter in a given year, there will be obvious regional differences, and it cannot be ruled out that the winter temperature in some areas is significantly lower. Warm winter years do not rule out periods of strong cooling caused by extreme cold waves. Jia Xiaolong said.
According to statistics, in the winter of 2023 2024, the average temperature in the country will be -28, 0. higher than the same period of the year3, the 10th warmest in the same period since 1961.
Jia Xiaolong said that in the winter of 2023 and 2024, China's warm winter index will be 367%, that is, only 36 in the country7% of the stations experienced a warm winter, and the national cold winter index was 150%, all of which did not reach half, so overall, the winter of 2023 and 2024 is a normal year, but the spatial difference is relatively large, from the perspective of the spatial distribution of the warm winter index: warm winter mainly occurs in South China, Southwest China and other places, while the southern part of North China, Huanghuai, Jianghuai and other areas are mostly cold winters.
Jia Xiaolong said that in the winter of 2023 and 2024, the cold air activities are more active, the number of cold waves is more and the intensity is stronger, and a total of 11 cold air processes affect China (including 3 cold waves), which is more than the same period in normal years. In winter, the mid- and high-latitude circulation systems show strong intraseasonal variation characteristics, and the winter monsoon circulation systems such as the Siberian high are periodically stronger, and the temperature fluctuates greatly.
Statistically, the probability of a 'warm winter' in China in an El Niño year is relatively large, but the most important factors affecting the cold and warm winter in China are the Siberian high, polar vortex and other mid- and high-latitude circulation systems, and the changes of these mid- and high-latitude circulation systems are mainly determined by the internal dynamic processes of the atmosphere, and the direct impact of El Niño events is relatively small. Jia Xiaolong said.
China News Network reporter Chen Su).
*: China News Network.