Since the beginning of this year, the share price of Kweichow Moutai is still **179%, the current market value of Moutai is 21 trillion, China Mobile's market capitalization is 22 trillion, the current Moutai is still the second, if the back Moutai is still like this, those large oil companies may exceed the market value, on the current valuation of Moutai, and the subsequent high growth, I believe that the future of Moutai stock price will have a great deal, I am the most confident person in Moutai, as long as the market style is slightly tilted, Moutai will have a strong explosive force.
Kweichow Moutai has had an average price-to-earnings ratio of 31 since its listing76 times, Moutai Group's revenue in 2023 will be 1644800 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 205%；The total profit is 1083500 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 188%；In 2022, Moutai Group will achieve revenue of 136.4 billion yuan, profit of 91.1 billion yuan, and operating income of 1240 yuan900 million yuan, profit 627100 million yuan, accounting for 90 percent of the group's revenue and profit97%/68.8%。Then Moutai Co., Ltd.'s operating income in 2024 will be 149.6 billion yuan and its profit will be 74.5 billion yuan.
Kweichow Moutai is calculated at today's ** price, which is 12 times the price-earnings ratio! 1.15*（1-1.15^12）/1-1.15=33.35 * 735 = 12 years of total profit 24512 * 087 dividend ratio = 12 years of total dividends 21315 1256 = 1697 yuan, the premise here is that the next 12 years of annual growth of 15% and 87% dividends, two factors are indispensable! If you can maintain 10% growth and 87% dividends for 15 years, according to the above calculation, then it is now 15 times the P/E ratio! The growth rate and dividend rate are the best valuation criteria! Just looking at the static P/E ratio doesn't show anything!
Previously, Kweichow Moutai announced the production and operation situation in 2023: the total operating income is about 149.5 billion yuan, and the net profit attributable to shareholders of the listed company is expected to be about 73.5 billion yuan.
The reason for the difference between the net profit in Kweichow Moutai's operating data and the net profit in the actual annual report is because the interest income from Kweichow Moutai Group's financial excellence in the non-main business is not added, according to the current scale and my personal calculation, the net profit generated should be about 1 billion yuan.
The current market capitalization of Kweichow Moutai is 21 trillion, Kweichow Moutai's net profit in 2023 will be 74.5 billion yuan, and Moutai's valuation will be 28 times, which is already lower than the average valuation since its listing.
There are two points of growth, one is that Moutai's price increase in 2023 will have an obvious driving force for the improvement of Moutai's profits in 2024, and the other is that Moutai's output will be significantly improved in 2025.
Whether it is an optimistic Moutai investor or a pessimistic Moutai investor, Moutai's net profit of 100 billion yuan in 2025 is a thorough card, but any rational and intelligent investor can understand this account. In other words, we don't care about the increase in valuation, because Moutai's valuation is already lower than the historical average price-earnings ratio, and the long-term valuation returns to a reasonable level is a value return.
Moutai Ding Dong previously revealed in his speech at the Yabuli China Entrepreneur Forum, "Over the past 70 years, Moutai has stored hundreds of thousands of tons of base wine in the wine warehouse (according to the financial report, the data is 280,000 tons), which is a lot of trillions according to the current market value. ”
Where does the stock wine come from? The proportion of Moutai's "sales volume of base liquor production 4 years ago" is about 85%, and the rest continues to be stored as a blend of high-end Moutai and Moutai. In other words, although Moutai is in short supply, he did not sell the liquor produced every year, and retained about 15% of the proportion to continue storage.
Rationally speaking, it is impossible for Moutai to retain 15% of the base liquor every year indefinitely, and the warehouse storage is also limited, so in the future, Moutai will slowly dispose of this batch of old liquor, or reduce the proportion of continuous storage, so that the current sales volume has a certain increase. With the release of production capacity in the next two years, coupled with the fact that old wine cannot continue to be stored so much, it is obvious that Moutai will upgrade more kinds of products and increase the ex-factory price in disguise, which is actually a growth point for Moutai in the future.
The uncertainty of the market changes over time, the shorter the time, the greater the uncertainty, and the longer the time, the uncertainty gradually decreases. Therefore, if we grasp the factors of long-term certainty and make long-term investments, the overall certainty of investment will be high. Factors for long-term certainty:
First, the fundamentals, in a stable growth industry, and the industry pattern is benign and stable, so that competitive, moat, good business model of good companies are certain.
Second, on the basis of a good company, the company's valuation is cheap enough and has a sufficient margin of safety to ensure that it can survive the turbulence of the market. Winter comes, bears choose to hibernate, geese choose to migrate, and each animal has its own choice. In fact, nature has chosen them for millions of years, and they have adapted to nature in their own different ways.
When faced with an extremely uncertain future, as always, not making a choice is actually a choice, and it often means being eliminated by nature. The difference between the ex-factory price of Moutai and the market terminal ** is Moutai's huge certainty**, and Moutai is still the company with the strongest certainty in A-shares, and there is no one. From another point of view, it can also show the opportunity of Moutai, in 2022, Moutai will implement special dividends for the first time, according to Moutai's announcement, the total amount of the two dividends implemented in 2022 will reach as much as 54.7 billion yuan, and Kweichow Moutai's net profit in 2022 will be 62.7 billion yuan, accounting for 87% of the net profit3%。
On the evening of November 20, 2023, Moutai once again paid a special dividend of 24 billion yuan to shareholders, and the end of the year will definitely be in accordance with 519%* net profit to dividends, then the dividend at the end of the year is about 38.6 billion yuan, the annual dividend is 386 + 240 = 62.6 billion yuan, and the dividend accounts for about 85% of the annual net profit.
Then the dividend yield of Moutai in 2023 is 626 19800 = 316%, which is also much higher than the current risk-free rate of return. But if you buy Moutai, it is equivalent to buying a certain risk-free bond + sustainable growth, and Moutai's net profit will reach 100 billion in 2025, which means that Moutai's dividend yield will reach more than 5%, and under the current extremely low risk-free rate of return, the value of Kweichow Moutai is highlighted.
Pay attention to it, and don't get lost ...... investment