Some iron rice bowls are about to be smashed, Beijing Normal University recently, by 2035 there will be a surplus of 1.5 million primary school teachers and 370,000 junior high school teachers in the country, and at the same time, Beijing, Zhejiang, Shandong, Guizhou and other places are actively launching the exit mechanism of teachers, starting from kindergartens and primary schools, and then to junior high schools and universities, there will be a large number of schools to close down, so teachers facing difficulties either choose to transfer or be laid off directly.
And the fundamental reason for all this is the reduction in the birth rate, which will be 9.02 million in 2023, the birth rate is only 6.3 per 1,000, and the natural population growth rate is minus 1 per 1,000. This is the second significant decline after the first negative growth in nearly 40 years in 2022, when the national population decreased by nearly 600,000 in 2022, and the national population in 2023 increased by 540,000 compared to the decrease in 2022, which means that the population will decline by more than one million in 2023. As everyone knows, the number of new births in 2013 was 17.76 million, and only 10 years later, 2023 dropped directly to 902, almost halved in only ten years, and the most deadly is that the age of the first marriage population is increasing year by year, basically after 30 to enter marriage, and the age of first childbearing is also rising year by year, which also means that due to age restrictions, women's fertility and fertility will gradually decline, even if the third child is released, it is difficult for women in their 30s to continue to give birth to their first child.
The reason for the decline in the marriage rate and birth rate is that on the one hand, the cost of raising children is too high, and the cost of raising children in China until the age of 18 is 69 times, while at the same time Germany was 36 times, France is 22 times, Australia is 2 times, and our China ranks second in the world in terms of childcare costs. The average cost of raising a child from birth to age 17 is $4850,000 yuan, and the cost of raising until college is 6270,000 yuan, even if there is a subjective desire to have more children, but because of the high cost, it will discourage everyone.
On the other hand, the harsh social competition and low social security system are also a big help, you must know that the number of college graduates in 2023 will be as high as 12 million, and the jobs that can be provided by the current society after the epidemic do not meet this standard at all, so students can only choose to continue their studies, junior colleges continue to upgrade to undergraduates, undergraduates continue to upgrade to masters, masters continue to upgrade to doctors, and doctors continue to do postdoctorals. In this way, the heavy pressure caused by the shortage of jobs in society can be alleviated. And even if you are lucky enough to find a job, a monthly salary of three or four thousand, an involuted working environment, and often overtime are squeezed, which is enough to make everyone doubt life.
Therefore, in the case of the superposition of various factors, young people are stressed and blame their parents for not understanding, and parents complain that they spend a lot of money to train their children but the results are low. This also forces young people to question and be confused about life, marriage, and childbirth.
Hot Engine Project So do you think that young people's late marriage and late childbearing or even not marriage and infertility are helpless choices, or is it just an excuse for them not to work hard, not to be motivated, and not to suffer losses?