The spring of the year is the first, and everything comes first. Since the beginning of this year, the prudent monetary policy has been carried out precisely, the RRR and interest rate cuts have been implemented successively, and the financial support for the real economy has been further improved. At the same time, the proactive fiscal policy has improved quality and efficiency, the industrial policy has been accelerated, and a number of macro policies have made concerted efforts to boost the stable start of the economy.
On the eve of the convening of the National People's Congress and the National People's Congress, the representative committee members interviewed by a reporter from China ** Daily said that under a series of policy efforts, reasonable and abundant liquidity will lay a solid foundation for steady growth and expansion of domestic demand this year, and China's economy will enter a new stage of medium-high-speed and steady growth in 2024.
Monetary policy "targeted" support
As a traditional monetary policy tool, the RRR cut has strong signal significance.
On February 5, the central bank lowered the reserve requirement ratio by 05 percentage points, providing long-term liquidity to the market by 1 trillion yuan. Subsequently, on February 20, the central bank authorized the National Interbank Funding Center to announce the 1-year loan market** interest rate (LPR) at 345%, but the LPR for more than 5 years decreased by 25 basis points from the previous period to 395%, exceeding market expectations.
Tian Xuan, deputy to the National People's Congress and deputy dean of the PBC School of Finance of Tsinghua University, said that since the beginning of this year, a series of policies to release medium and long-term liquidity have been introduced, reflecting the tone of monetary policy to continue to do a good job in counter-cyclical adjustment and consolidating market confidence. Under the efforts of a series of policies, reasonable and abundant liquidity will lay a solid foundation for steady growth and expansion of domestic demand this year.
Experts believe that in the context of "promoting consumption, stabilizing investment, expanding domestic demand" and "promoting a steady and moderate decline in comprehensive social financing costs", it is still possible to cut interest rates by 10 basis points in the first quarter.
A number of policies have been made in concert
At the same time as the monetary policy is exerting force, the active fiscal policy is in the front, and the industrial policy is promoted in a coordinated manner.
According to the data of Enterprise Early Warning, 3,465 new special bonds were issued in February8.8 billion yuan, a significant increase from January. "The scale of new special bonds this year is expected to reach 4 trillion yuan. Li Chao, chief economist and co-director of the research institute of Zhejiang businessmen, said that this year's fiscal pre-force characteristics will be more prominent, on the one hand, public budget expenditure will be pre-emptive, on the other hand, the issuance of special bonds will be relatively pre-emptive.
While expanding effective investment, measures to promote consumption will be promoted in a coordinated manner. He Yadong, spokesman of the Ministry of Commerce, said a few days ago that in the next step, the Ministry of Commerce will organize a series of activities to promote consumption and implement various policies and measures to promote consumption and promote the continuous expansion of consumption.
It is worth noting that in order to achieve a virtuous circle in which investment and consumption promote each other, equipment renewal and trade-in of consumer goods are expected to become important starting points. The fourth meeting of the ** Financial and Economic Committee held on February 23 emphasized that accelerating product upgrading is an important measure to promote high-quality development, and it is necessary to encourage and guide the renewal of equipment and the trade-in of consumer goods on a new scale.
Policies to support the development of the private economy are also intensifying. On January 25, Guo Wuping, director of the Department of Inclusive Finance of the State Administration of Financial Supervision and Administration, said that this year will increase credit support for private small and micro enterprises, and promote the growth rate of private small and micro enterprise corporate loans not lower than the growth rate of various loans.
Liu Yonghao, a member of the National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC) and chairman of New Hope Group, suggested that the vitality of private economic development should be further enhanced and high-quality development should be promoted. Establish a "one-to-one" and "point-to-point" green communication mechanism, "one enterprise and one policy" to accurately meet the needs of enterprises, help enterprises tide over difficulties, and enhance the ability of private leading enterprises to drive the integration and development of small and medium-sized enterprises.
In addition, he suggested that the opinions of relevant parties should be solicited before the introduction of industrial adjustment policies. Especially in industries with large volume and great influence, it is necessary to pay full attention to the pre-communication before the introduction of the policy, so that relevant enterprises and institutions can understand the purpose and measures of policy adjustment and the possible positive or negative impacts, put forward better solutions to solve problems, and form a joint force to promote the solution of difficulties.
The positive trend of economic recovery is expected to continue
With the effectiveness of macro policies, experts expect that the economy will continue to recover in the first quarter.
Consumption is expected to get off to a good start. During the Spring Festival holiday in the Year of the Dragon, domestic tourism outings 47.4 billion people and a total travel expenditure of 6,3268.7 billion yuan, an increase over the same period in 2019 on a comparable basis7%。The national film box office and the number of moviegoers both set a record in the same period, and the average daily sales revenue of the national service consumption-related industries increased by 52% year-on-year3%。The fiery Spring Festival consumption has brought a prosperous start to the economy throughout the year. "Driven by the peak consumption season of the Spring Festival and various policies and measures, the consumer market is expected to show a steady growth trend in the first quarter. He Yadong said.
The growth of infrastructure investment is supported. The state recently issued a list of the third batch of projects for the issuance of additional treasury bonds in 2023, involving more than 2,800 projects and arranging nearly 200 billion yuan of treasury bond funds. So far, the 1 trillion yuan additional treasury bond issuance project in 2023 has been completed. "From the perspective of stable growth, the arrival of treasury bond funds will provide support for infrastructure investment in the first quarter, thereby stabilizing the economic operation at the beginning of the year. CITIC ** Chief Economist Ming Ming said.
The International Monetary Organization recently raised the growth forecast of China's economy and emerging Asian economies in 2024, and said that the upward revision of China's economic growth forecast reflects the continuation of the higher-than-expected growth momentum of China's economy last year, as well as the leading role of China's relevant policies.
Yang Changchang, a member of the National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC) and chief economist of the Shenwan Hongyuan Research Institute, believes that China's economy will enter a new stage of medium-high-speed and steady growth in 2024. It is necessary to make all parties full of expectations, twist into a rope, and form a joint force for the economic improvement.