A friend just asked me, which roughly means: when will the bull market end, and I should leave the market early?
My answer is, one: I don't know when the bull market will end, I only know that the bull market will end when the over-the-counter funds do not continue to enter the market, the on-site funds continue to leave the market, and the volume and price of the entire market fall together.
Two: If the bull market is really over, think that you can carry the bear market or the best, continue to resist, three: can not resist, in the bull market stage, reduce the target income, earn thirty or fifty points, cancel the account and leave the market, wait for the next round of bull market to begin, and then enter the market, four: in the bull market to make money stage, form, optimize and improve a mature trading system, let yourself carry the bull to bear stage.
This system must include the coping strategy of more profit and less loss in the three stages of bull market, ** market and bear market at the same time.
Five: Don't believe that you can successfully escape the top.
In this market, I can tell you very clearly that 95% of traders, whether they are **, institutions or floating capital, basically cannot completely leave the market at the end of the bull market (successfully escape the top at the top of the bull market).
Before the end of the bull market, it must be the entire market, the craziest acceleration stage, basically every day there are a large number of **limit, every day has the opportunity to earn three or five points or one or twenty points, at the same time, will be at a relatively high level repeatedly wide **, their own stay in the market.
At this time, how many are there"mortals"Can you close your account and leave the market?
There are several"mortals"Won't think about making as much money as possible?
There are several"mortals"Can you not believe that you have the strength to survive under repeated sideways**?
As far as historical data is concerned, in addition to the so-called stock god, it is basically impossible for someone to completely leave the market, at the same time, at the end of the bull market, it basically means that the index has fallen by more than 20 percent, **average** thirty or fifty points, at this time, not only have they begun to lose money, but most of them are deeply killed, relatively cheap, what is the significance of leaving the market at this time?
How many people would choose to leave the market altogether after a rollercoaster loss?
Therefore, the best way to leave is to reduce the target income in the bull market stage, and after earning your own target income, you can cancel the account and leave the market!
Although there are very few people who can completely leave the market at this stage, it is theoretically the best choice to leave the market at this stage!
But then again, once you enter the market, for 99% of your friends, there are only three endings in the end, one: because of huge losses, completely leave the market (cancel your account or become an ultra-long-term shareholder).
This part of the traders, accounting for about 70%.
Two: With the market, the market rises to make money, the market falls to lose money, and becomes an old fritter in the market!
This part of the traders, accounting for about 20%.
Three: Organize, optimize, and improve your own trading system, and become one of the very few long-term profit-making masters in this market!
This part of the traders, standing at about 9%!
Four: Only a very small number of people can make money in the middle of the bull market and completely leave the market.
If you think that you can make money and leave the market halfway, you can choose to leave halfway, and if you can't do it, you can set up, optimize, and improve your trading system.
Therefore, for the friend above, my answer is: don't think about when the bull market will end, take advantage of the current bull market, make a little more, and on the basis of making money, form, optimize, and improve your own trading system, and do it for a long time.
Returning to the so-called system, there are two core key points for the system.
One: choose a system that allows you to earn money for a long time.
Second, the chosen system must reduce the dependence on market ups and downs as much as possible.
One: choose a system that allows you to earn money for a long time.
In this market, most traders can only make money during the bull market stage, and basically lose money at other times!
Only a very small number of people can make money for a long time, and those who make money in this part have medium and long-term plans and know what to do now and for a long time in the future!
In other words, the system I chose from the beginning is a medium- and long-term system, and there are only two systems in my case.
1** or super ** system, this system is particularly simple, in the case of the sector and ** performance growth expectations, more tend to study the relationship between volume and price, the relationship between supply and demand of funds, market sentiment and confidence and other short-term ups and downs!
At any time, choose the strongest leading sector at the moment and**or the sector that is most likely to make you money, do it when you have the opportunity, and rest if you don't have the opportunity!
To do every ** or super ** transaction, you can make a profit or loss of three or five points or one or twenty points.
It's any transaction, it's not heavy, and it's not dead!
If you are wrong, you must admit it, and you must resolutely stop the loss!
From short to long, make money through the short-term compound interest system, and make money through the win rate and profit and loss ratio.
This system is suitable for all friends who care about short-term ups and downs and account profits and losses!
If we care about short-term ups and downs and account profits and losses, we must unconditionally essay, optimize and improve this trading system.
2. Medium and long-term system, this system, is not difficult, you only need to choose a sector with performance growth expectations and **, in-depth study of the sector and company fundamentals, and follow the trend!
*stage, holding stocks to do the trend, **stage short position rest!
Make a difference in the sideways ** stage!
This only needs to pay attention to three points, first, we must deeply study the fundamentals of the sector and **.
Second: Enough understanding of the trend of the plate and **.
Third: resist the outside world** and focus on a certain plate!
This system is suitable for friends who don't have time to watch the market and don't care about the rise and fall of the ** and the profit and loss of the account.
Second, the chosen system must reduce the dependence on market ups and downs as much as possible.
The above two systems, ** or super ** system, are more likely to choose the current leading sector and **, the dependence on the entire market is particularly low, the market is good, the opportunity is a little heavier, and the target income is a little higher.
The market is not good, there are fewer opportunities, and the target income is a little less!
Medium and long-term system, this system only needs to keep an eye on the performance and trend of the sector!
Both systems, in theory, will eventually make money.
And if our system is dependent on the market, the dependence on the market is particularly high, the market is good to make money, the market is bad to lose money!
I can tell you very clearly that a good market may not be able to make more money than expected, and at the same time, a bad market will definitely lose money!
Relying on the system of market ups and downs, it is theoretically possible to achieve breakeven, but there are a few people. Can you afford to lose money?
15 years of deleveraging loss?
Losses in an 18-year illiquidity-poor bear market?
Reducing the losses of the bear market last year?
How many people resisted?
Once in the bear market, if you can't bear the meat or big losses, you won't survive the bull market, and even if you survive the bull market, you won't be able to earn it back!
Therefore, before the formation of the system, the best choice is to reduce the target income in the bull market stage, earn what belongs to you, and leave the market!