Hello everyone, I am the growing minibus and today we are togetherRead a new book, The Case for a Bull MarketThis book is a necessary condition for the bull market of U.S. stocks summarized by American scholars. While sharing notes, the minibus talked about his own feelings
The winning formula implicit in "The Case for a Bull Market".
My New Year's Reading Plan 1, the author of this book analyzed the history of the U.S. stock market from 1908 to 1995, and picked out the 10-year year with the highest increase, of which each year rose by more than 36%, which can be regarded as 10 small bull markets.
Minibus insight: Throughout the 87-year history of U.S. stocks, there have been 10 years of gains of more than 36%, with an average of 8Once every 7 years. Compared with the history of the domestic Shanghai Stock Exchange from 1991 to 2023, 8 of the 33 years have increased by more than 36%, with an average of 4Once every 1 year, but only once in the last 10 years. 2. The author summarizes the candidate conditions for the reason for the bull market, noting that the above conditions are not sufficient and necessary. They are: corporate profit expectations, psychological changes, ultra-long cycles, action-reactions, and easy credit, the specific meaning of which is explained below.
Minibus perception: Minibus summarizes according to its own understanding, the reason for the coming of the bull market may be that the profit fundamentals exceed expectations, the public's expectations have changed from pessimistic to optimistic, the outbreak of innovative technology has brought about a new industry outbreak, the long-term bull and bear fluctuation range, and the liquidity is abundant. (To be honest, some of the translations of this book are really not flattering, and some translations are confusing). 3. At the same time, the author further looks forward to the winning formula for future bull marketsThey are: sluggish**, coupled with sudden credit easing, low valuation + high liquidity.
Minibus perception: Xiaoba agrees with the author's two logics, but believes that it may be more reasonable if fundamental factors can be taken into account. Earnings fundamentals beat expectations + sluggish ** + easy credit, a combination of the three could be a winning formula for a bull market. 4. Although the author summarized a series of bull market conditions based on a review of history, at the same time, he also believes that it is impossible to try to arrive in the future bull market. In the book, the author basically put the public and ** at the beginning of the year at the end of each bull market, and found that the accuracy rate of ** was extremely low, not even reaching 50%.1958: "The bull market surprised the experts".
1975: "The views of the experts are very different".
1995: "No one can interpret the future perfectly".
Minibus perception: It is very difficult to try to go to the **bull market, and it is even more difficult to be correct in a row.
5. [This book is a historical review book of U.S. stocks, and the author's review vision is very broad, including many ZF policies, global news trends, and economic conditions of various countries. However, due to the fact that the minibus does not have a deep understanding of the history of the United States, it is a little difficult to read, but the minibus is deeply convinced of the preface part, if you have overseas friends, please share your feelings]. Of course, due to the limitations of ability, the content expressed in this article is less than one-ten-thousandth of the essence of the whole book. This article is a reading note that I promised a long time ago, and I am deeply gratified that it has been over, and it has been in arrears for a long time. I look forward to seeing you in the next issue, and I wish you all a pleasant experience.