Humanoid robots are a big outlet, but they are not an easy task.
In October 2023, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued the "Guiding Opinions on the Innovation and Development of Humanoid Robots", and it is planned that by 2025, the humanoid robot innovation system will be initially established; By 2027, the technological innovation ability of humanoid robots will be significantly improved.
Not long ago, on December 29, UBTECH, the "first share of humanoid robots", was officially listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange. As the first share of humanoid robots in China, UBTECH's stock price once reached 93 on the first day of listingHK$45, with a market capitalization of nearly HK$39 billion.
Although the robot track has an infinite number of possibilitiesofImagine space, but whether UBTECH's business model can run throughStill isUnknowns
Judging from the results, problems such as low product sales, sharp decline in gross profit margin, operating cash inflow and overexpenditure, and strategic turbulence of management are still hanging over UBTECH's head like the sword of Damocles.
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In 2018, the house purchased 2,150 cruzr robots from Shenzhen UBTECH Co., Ltd. *** hereinafter referred to as "UBTECH"), and the robots were officially put on duty in the hundreds of cities and thousands of stores of the house. This is the first time in human history that artificial intelligence robots have entered offline new retail on a large scale.
We are robots, we are also employees, we are officially on duty today, and we are happy to serve you. On the occasion of the New Year, we would like to wish you all a Happy New Year! Yes! The robot's enthusiastic and lively language and expression won unanimous praise from the audience.
But time has passed, and in 2023, in the store of Century Jinyuan Shopping Center in Haidian District, Beijing, two robots will quietly "stand" on both sides of the service desk. Despite being plugged in, the robot is on a black screen and is no longer receiving any instructions from the customer.
The robot has been bought for many years, and it used to be checked for you often, but now no one maintains it. ”
The robot, which was purchased at a cost of nearly 200 million yuan, was idle on a large scale after five years. This also leads to the unavoidable problem of the robot track:At what stage are humanoid robots landing? Where are the main application scenarios of UBTECH's products? Who is the audience? Is the commercialization model viable?
UBTECH was founded in 2012 and became famous on the stage of the Spring Festival Gala in 2016, which has also aroused the enthusiasm of many investors and has a number of large star investment institutions.
As far as products are concerned, UBTECH launched consumer-grade robots in 2016, educational intelligent robots and general service intelligent robots in 2017, and logistics and health care intelligent robots at the end of 2020 and the second half of 2022, with a total of more than 50 robots launched, which can be described as "early in the morning".
But the robots that have attracted much attention in the market (especially humanoid robots) are still in their early stages and are still far from bringing net profits to the company.
Judging from the prospectus, UBTECH is still in the stage of continuous losses and needs to rely on financing for blood transfusion.
Financial data show that in 2020, 2021, 2022 and the first half of 2023, UBTECH's net profit loss will exceed 700 million yuan, and the return on equity will fluctuate around -100%, and in 2021, the return on equity will fall to -12229%。
It can be found that the scale of UBTECH's loss has increased significantly, and the growth rate of revenue is far less than the trend of increasing losses. At present, UBTECH's cash flow from operating activities and net cash flow from investment activities are negative, and it can only rely on foreign debt and financing transfusion.
Data**: Straight Flush ifind
Despite continuous losses, UBTECH, which is in the track of intelligent robots, still has to continue to increase its research and development. In 2020, 2021 and the first three quarters of 2022, UBTECH's R&D expenditure was 42.9 billion yuan, 51.7 billion yuan, 32.5 billion yuan, accounting for the total revenue of the year. 3% and 614%。
But if you want to talk about it wellMarketing story, technology R&D and commercialization will sooner or later.
For three consecutive years, the sales volume of the Walker series were 1, 8 and 1 respectively, and 10 units were produced in three years, but the ace products did not support the sales crown position, and the unit price of the products dropped significantlyUBTECH's core business productsA suitable business model is missing
UBTECH official website.
In fact, UBTECH does more TOgBusiness.
According to an industry insider close to UBTECH, UBTECH has a lot of products covering patrol cars, public security and other application fields, and the larger buying customers are **.
However, in terms of the existing capital, scientific and technological level, infrastructure, and materials, the practitioner said that whether users have clear needs, whether they can fully meet user needs, and how much premium the product exists are all unsolved problems. "The entire robot industry can't get around the problem of development path, and there needs to be transitional alternative products before the application of humanoid robots."
But togThe pitfall of the market is that it is easy to bypass this transition phase.
According to ** reports, the prospectus revealed a number of "** investments- Get the order". Taking Linping Economic Development and Construction, a major customer, as an example, UBTECH has obtained investment from the leading institution where the project is located after winning the bid for the artificial intelligence education project in Yuhang District, Hangzhou. Similar situations also occurred in Liuzhou City, Chongqing Liangjiang New Area, Xiamen City, Jiujiang City and other places, involving hundreds of millions of dollars.
"Focus on getting the lead" is easy to becometo g business"Trump"., but also buried hidden dangers for a long time.
Due to the unclear demand, compared with to To B, the products of the first merchant cannot truly and quickly meet the needs of the market. Without user feedback, the product update speed is slow, which often leads to the decoupling of the production front-end and the market.
Take the artificial intelligence project just mentioned by UBTECH and Yuhang City** as an example, a primary school in Hangzhou revealed that there are only 3 4 robots in the school, and they will only be used when they are in artificial intelligence experimental classes, and the robot base only exists in name only, and the mobility is poor.
It's clear that TO G's revenue isn't the driving force behind the TO C story, and worse, it's amplifying the chaos within the organization.
According to Leifeng.com, in 2021, Tsinghua professor Zhao Mingguo resigned from UBTECH, the Beijing Research Institute was dissolved, and the core figures of the walker robot team also left one after another.
CEO Zhou Jian has strong financing ability, but many times the company's internal affairs have no time to take care of, and there is some chaos within the organization: R&D, sales, and the three links of the first chain are lazy and disorderly.
The era of AI has come, and UBTECH is bound to be re-examined by capital with a more rigorous vision. If it blindly relies on the To G path, it will be difficult for UBTECH to open the market. The status quo is bloody: although UBTECH has developed two major businesses, to B and to C, and diversified its revenue segments, humanoid robots are still facing the problem of commercialization.
The biggest premise for commercialization is that the technical strength is strong enough. Although UBTECH invests high R&D expenses in products every year, externally, its product functions are not "amazing", and the high ** excludes many consumers, UBTECH only hugs the "thighs" of the G end; Internally, there is also a need for reforms within the company to clean up the less "united" ranks at the moment.
UBTECH official website.
Humanoid robots are still in their early stages, and they need to be idealistic and iterate.
Although the industry is not yet fully mature, with the support of national policies and the continuous innovation of head robot companies, the next few years will still be a critical period for humanoid robots to usher in new opportunities.
Under the tuyere, above the high seat, how will UBTECH break the game? New stream research will continue to follow up and report.