On Tuesday (March 5), the Shanghai Composite Index rose 026%, the GEM index rose 042%。On the disk, the new energy vehicle index rose before noon, and JAC Automobile rose by the limit; **Banks and military industries are among the top gainers, and CPO, consumer electronics, computing power, and short dramas are active; Lithium mines, CROs, PEEK materials, and photovoltaic concepts weakened, while education, retail, and real estate fell first.
Premier Li Qiang made a work report. Overall, the content of the 2024 work target includes an economic growth target of about 5%, a CPI increase of about 3%, a fiscal deficit rate of 3%, and a local special bond of 39 trillion, which is not particularly beyond or below market expectations. The fiscal deficit ratio may be at the lower end of expectations, or lower than the expectations of some market players. However, at the same time, considering that ultra-long-term special treasury bonds will be issued for several consecutive years from this year, excluding the deficit, 1 trillion yuan will be issued in 2024, and the 500 billion yuan carried over from last year will be superimposed, and the intensity of fiscal expenditure will increase compared with previous years.
If the "ultra-long-term special treasury bonds" are issued, they can work in tandem with the off-budget "quasi-fiscal" to jointly support stable fiscal growth in 2024. In December 2023, the balance of PSL increased by 350 billion yuan, and the "quasi-fiscal" through PSL has been strengthened. However, the PSL term is not more than 5 years, which is not suitable for investment in key areas with a longer term and involving the national economy and people's livelihood, which may be the background for the introduction of trillions of national bonds. At the same timeThe use of trillions of ultra-long-term government bonds in 2024 will be different from that in 2023. The 1 trillion yuan of ultra-long-term treasury bonds issued in 2023 will be mainly used to support post-disaster recovery and reconstruction and improve disaster prevention, mitigation and relief capabilities. In 2024, it will be used for the implementation of major national strategies and security capacity building in key areas. The specific field still needs to be clarified, combined with the current industrial development situation, strategic projects such as "Eastern Data and Western Computing", as well as related projects are expected to benefit.
In the next stage, the market is concerned about the introduction of policies and macroeconomic growth, and may gradually shift its focus to economic data. In the middle of February, the social finance data and the January-February macroeconomic hard data will be released, the social finance in January exceeded expectations, and the impact of the holiday in February may turn lower again, but the management has previously stabilized the social finance to better support the real economy, and the impact should not be large. Follow-up attention to the release of economic hard data may affect the pace of market operation, but on the whole, from the perspective of the domestic and foreign environment, the risk of A-shares is not large, and the structural ** is expected to be deduced.
In terms of direction, investors need to strengthen the choice of subdivided industries and **. In terms of subdivisions, we will focus on the improvement of the operating efficiency of state-owned enterprises, the industrial policy orientation of new quality productivity, and the construction of wealth management functions or systems in the capital market.