The fertility rate continued to be the first before, from the slogan of "fewer births, a happy life" to the current "one child is not too much, the second child is not too little, and the third child and the fourth child are like a treasure". Judging from the results, although there has been a recovery, the overall fertility rate is still **, and the number of births in 2023 is only 9.02 million.
Seeing that the real recovery has yet to be tested, and the ensuing problem is also a headache, that is, urging the purchase of houses does not seem to have a good effect.
In the 70 major cities announced in 2024, the sales area of new and second-hand homes in January rebounded month-on-month, and both narrowed. For example, the sales price of new homes in first-tier cities fell by 0 month-on-month3%, which is 01%。Among the 70 cities, the sales area of second-hand houses decreased by 2 from the previous month, and the number of new buildings decreased by 6.
However, this does not mask the current pressures in the real estate market. The pressure comes from two aspects, the first is the newly built commercial housing, and the second is the large inventory.
According to the statistics of the China Index Research Institute, from January to February this year, the average sales of the top 10 real estate companies was 2120 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 477%。This is not counting the last dozens of real estate companies, and it is not optimistic.
Some people may ask, in fact, there are quite a few policies introduced in the past two years, and the intensity was once greater than the previous one. Lower mortgage interest rates, if calculated from high mortgage interest rates, the interest rate of more than 6% is reduced to the current 395%, which is almost half.
And it is followed by a series of policies such as purchase restrictions, lifting of sales restrictions, increasing loan amounts, provident funds, house ticket subsidies, and optimizing talent settlement.
But the problem is that there are so many favorable policies, and the effect does not seem to be obvious, and there is no such a complete reversal.
There has been a significant change in the supply and demand of real estate
In the face of repeated "malaise" in the market, we also realized that the barbaric growth period of the past is gone, and if we transition to a healthier real estate development market, it has become the direction that needs to be considered now. Seeing that this "three-board axe", lifting the purchase restrictions, sales restrictions, and lowering interest rates does not seem to have an obvious effect, and the country is really going to move seriously this time.
On February 27 this year, the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development issued the latest policy to do a good job in the compilation of housing development plans and annual plans.
The content here summarizes two key points, first, to stabilize the market, from the four aspects of people, housing, land, and money, do a good job of planning. It is necessary to decide the land scientifically according to the housing demand**, in the vernacular, that is, to stop blind development as in the past. Now there are as many people as there are people to develop as much land as you want. Don't have a debt "empire" like Evergrande Group, which causes the market to fluctuate.
Of course, it takes time for a policy to be put forward to the actual implementation. And in terms of the "digestion capacity" of a city, it is different, and it will take about two to three years to digest most of the inventory.
We can simply understand that we used to eat "too full", and now we need to slow down and let the market digest it, otherwise it will be very uncomfortable in all aspects.
In addition, with regard to improving security and the market, it can be understood that those who have money and want to improve it are also supported. As for the rest, it is also supported to protect wage earners and other people who just need housing.
In short, the market for commercial housing should be regulated and solved, and affordable housing will have a back-up. Grasp both, so as to stabilize the market.
Beneficiaries of the population
So who are the beneficiaries of the issuance of this regulation? This is mainly the wage earner group and real estate developers. The planning of wage housing has been going on, and it has gradually begun to land, which is undoubtedly a huge "good news" for the low-income people among the working class. Otherwise, in the face of many high housing prices today, it is actually quite difficult to own a house of your own.
The advantage of the developer is that they can take advantage of this destocking policy and have the support of relevant parties to gradually digest the inventory. You must know that in the past few years, the relationship between the epidemic and the developer can be said to be bitter. Sales can't go up, and there is no way to repay the debt, which can be said to be very uncomfortable, and this time I can just take this opportunity to revitalize.