On March 1, data released by the Service Industry Survey Center of the National Bureau of Statistics and the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing showed thatIn February, the manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) was 491%, down 01 percentage point；The non-manufacturing business activity index was 514%, up 07 percentage points; The composite PMI output index is 509%, the same as in January, China's economy as a whole continued to expand.
The manufacturing PMI fell slightly
The data shows thatIn terms of enterprise size, the PMI of large enterprises is 504%, the same as January, above the critical point; The PMI for medium-sized businesses is 491%, up 02 percentage points, below the critical point; The PMI for small businesses is 464%, down 08 percentage points, below the critical point.
From the perspective of sub-indexes, among the five sub-indices that constitute the manufacturing PMI, the production index, the new orders index, the raw material inventory index, the employment index and the first-class business delivery time index are all below the critical point.
Although the manufacturing PMI continued to be in the contraction range in February and fell slightly from the previous month, it was mainly affected by the Spring Festival effect, so it was not lower than expected。Fu Yifu, a senior researcher at the Xingtu Financial Research Institute, said that driven by factors such as the Spring Festival holiday, the off-season of manufacturing production, and the return of employees to their hometowns during the holiday, the production index and the new export orders index fell in February, but the new orders index was the same as the previous value, reflecting that the market demand in the manufacturing market has not weakened.
It is worth mentioning that the high-tech manufacturing industry has maintained an expansion trend。Zhao Qinghe, a senior statistician at the Service Industry Survey Center of the National Bureau of Statistics, said in his interpretation of the data that the PMI of the high-tech manufacturing industry was 508%, down 03 percentage points, remaining in the expansion range for 4 consecutive months, and the industry continued to grow.
Business expectations are also stable. "The expected index of production and business activities is 542%, up 02 percentage points, indicating that enterprises have increased confidence in the development of the market after the Spring Festival. Zhao Qinghe saidFrom the perspective of industries, the expected index of production and business activities in industries such as wood processing and furniture, automobiles, railways and ships, aerospace equipment, electrical machinery and equipment is located at 58More than 0% is in the higher boom range, and enterprises have strong confidence in the development of the industry.
The non-manufacturing sector continues to expand
In February, by industry, the business activity index of the service industry was 510%, up 09 percentage points. The index of business activity in the construction sector was 535%, down 04 percentage points.
According to the data, Zhao Qinghe analyzed that the expansion of the service industry has increased. From the perspective of industries, driven by factors such as the Spring Festival holiday, the production and operation of industries closely related to holiday travel and consumption are more active, among which the business activity index of retail, railway transportation, road transportation, catering, ecological protection and public facilities management is at 530% or more; The business activity index of air transportation, monetary and financial services, culture, sports and entertainment and other industries is at 60In the high-level boom range of more than 0%, the total business volume grew rapidly.
In his view, affected by factors such as the Spring Festival holiday and low temperature, rain and snow, the business activity index of the construction industry declined month-on-month, but it was still in the expansion range, and the construction industry continued to grow overall. "From the perspective of market expectations, the business activity expectation index is 557%, which continues to be in a relatively high boom range, indicating that construction enterprises remain optimistic about the future development of the industry. ”
Fu Yifu also said that the non-manufacturing business activity index continued to remain in the expansion range in February and rebounded from the previous month, reflecting the continued acceleration of the expansion of the service sector. "This is mainly due to the impact of the festival effect, and residents' enthusiasm for travel and consumption is high, which has led to the activity of transportation, catering, retail and other fields. ”
At the same time, Fu Yifu also mentioned that the current real estate investment continues to be weak, and the bulk consumption of real estate in the post-cycle is still insufficient and in the contraction range. “However, overall, the manufacturing PMI data in February was in line with market expectations, and with the gradual recovery of production and life in various industries after the Spring Festival, the manufacturing industry is expected to be further repaired.
In addition, Fu Yifu said that the foundation of China's current economic recovery is still not solid, and it is necessary to continue to make efforts in the policy area. The previous blockbuster policies such as the "trillion national bonds" and the central bank's unexpected RRR cut are of great significance for boosting the confidence of market players and stabilizing economic operation.
*: Compiled from International Business Daily.
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