Above 3100 points, there were a lot of trapped chips in the fourth quarter of last year, and it was difficult to break through at one time;It will take time for the economy to recover, and with the need for better industry fundamentals ...... the face of quarterly annual reportsThere will inevitably be a market in March.
This week, the index unconsciously returned to 3,000 points, and many people sighed with emotion, feeling that things are no longer human, and the chips have undergone a big change of hands before the New Year. Investment is like this, no matter how you argue, in the end it is consequentialism, speaking with money, simple and clear.
It took only two weeks to go from extreme pessimism to all kinds of optimistic rhetoric, but this 3,000 points seem to have crossed a lot. After this week's positive and negative experience, the market's call for the index to stand above 3,000 points and continue to expand upwards is getting higher and higher, and the mood is far more optimistic than a year ago, but at this time we want to say that the market space on 3,000 points is still determined by economic fundamentals.
January's plunge was excessive, out of touch with fundamentals, and it is precisely for this reason that we dared to shout before the holiday that the more we fall, the more we buy. But at this time, after the market quickly regained 3000 points, our optimism gradually converged, if the pendulum before the market was too far from the center, and the panic brought the first buying point of the year, then after returning to 3000 points, the pendulum has been close to the center, and then the ** will not be achieved overnight.
On the one hand, above 3100 points, there were a lot of trapped chips in the fourth quarter of last year, and it was difficult to break through at one time;On the other hand, although the social finance data in January was good, it will still take time for the economy to recover considering the Spring Festival. At the same time, in the face of quarterly annual reports, there are not many outstanding opportunities in various industries, although technology and high dividends have formed opportunities and support for the market, but further expansion after rapid development requires better industry fundamentals, which is difficult to fully form.
To sum up, we believe that the market will inevitably have ** in March, maybe 3000 points is a new starting point, but the future will not be too smooth, it is gratifying to get low-level chips, and those who do not get it do not have to chase it at this time. 3000 points is compared to guts, is courage;3000 points is compared to wisdom and vision;2024 is the year of building the bottom and the turning point, I hope that the market will repeatedly consolidate 3,000 points, so that more investors can have the opportunity to get on the bus, and the recovery of confidence needs more economic recovery, and the market needs more data to corroborate, in order to truly achieve stability and long-term development.
The author is the research director of Guotai Junan Shanghai).