After the stinging solar term, the domestic pig and grain market ushered in a "watershed", among them, in the pig market, pig prices "from falling into rising", * the bottom of the support further strengthened, the market bullish sentiment is higher, the market or there is a strong trend. In the grain market, after the stinging solar term, the temperature in the north and south gradually rose, the difficulty of grassroots corn storage increased, and the corn spot had weak pressure, and the wheat market, by the policy wheat rotation concentration, wheat ** increased, ** continued to languish trend! So, what's happening in the market? The specific analysis is as follows:
First, the pressure of corn is still there, and the short-term pressure is mainly weak!
At present, the arrival of the stinging solar term, the temperature in the north and south will gradually rise, the northeast region, the difficulty of tidal grain storage is gradually increasing, and the ground grain is facing the pressure of collecting the first clear, in particular, the progress of corn grain sales in the producing areas is slow, and the progress of grain sales in Shandong and Northeast China is 55 6 into about 10, the grassroots surplus grain is loose, and the pressure on the market is the best end!
Specifically, in the Northeast, the progress of corn grain sales reached 6 percent, nearly 11 percentage points slower than the same period last year, supported by the increase in grain reserves, corn spot ** continued, and the business and drying tower ** entry mentality weakened, and the phenomenon of grassroots farmers selling grain increased, the arrival of grain sources of enterprises differentiated, some enterprises to a small rise and fall price adjustment, the mainstream deep processing inventory safety, **stable!
Among them, in Heilongjiang Xinhecheng and Tongliao plum blossoms down 05 1 pound, Hohshi Fufeng, Cargill Biochemical, Jilin Fuel Ethanol and Suihua Haotian **05 2 cents, Heijiliao area, mainstream corn ** in 107~1.195 yuan catty, Hohwa Fufeng ** rose to 1195 yuan!
In North China and the Huanghuai region, recently, the grassroots volume has surged, the arrival of corn by deep processing enterprises has increased significantly, and the price of enterprises has continued, but with the weather process of light rain in many places in the north, the rhythm of grain sales at the grassroots level has slowed down slightly, and the source of grain arriving in front of the factory has decreased, and there has been a slight change!
Among them, in Shandong, the arrival of deep processing enterprises in front of the door is about 870 cars, compared with yesterday a decrease of more than 600 cars, the amount of enterprises has decreased, the low price subscription mentality of farmers has weakened, and the corn ** has shown a narrow range of adjustment performance, among them, Zaozhuang Hengren and lemon biochemistry have been lowered by 05 points, in Weifang Tianli, Chenming starch, Shouguang golden corn and Leling Zhonggu, Shandong Luzhou ***05 points, Shandong corn ** in 1152~1.26 yuan catty, the mainstream ** is less than 12 yuan catty!
Personally, I believe that due to the sting, the rhythm of the grassroots surplus grain may be accelerated, and the demand for follow-up is relatively cautious, feed enterprises just need to be insufficient, domestic imported corn arrivals have increased, deep processing is mainly based on bargain replenishment, in the short term, corn spot or will be the most weak, and with the Northeast tide grain selling pressure risk reduced, the grassroots surplus grain will be further reduced, or will appear to stop falling** trend!
Second, wheat **landslide**!
At the end of February, after a short rise in wheat, into March, the wheat market showed an inertial trend, in the short term, the market bearish sentiment is strong, and the market will still be weak, and the high-quality wheat in the future may have a small opportunity!
At present, there are still 3 months before the summer grain wheat is listed, the domestic local grain depots and grain reserves have increased the rhythm of wheat rotation, the market level has improved, superimposed, imported wheat has supplemented the market, the wheat pattern has improved, the enthusiasm of the market to buy grain sources has decreased, the transaction rate of policy wheat rotation has declined, and the transaction price is mainly based on the bottom price!
On the demand side, at present, flour consumption has entered the off-season, household consumption demand has decreased, food enterprises have weak demand, and milling enterprises are facing a slowdown in the pace of goods. The bran market, by the downturn in the breeding industry, the mentality of feed enterprises is weak, the pressure on bran is declining, the profits of milling enterprises are under pressure, the operating rate of some small and medium-sized flour mills is constantly decreasing, the consumption demand for raw grain is reduced, and the enthusiasm for purchasing wheat has deteriorated!
Therefore, due to the weakening of the enthusiasm for wheat purchase and sales in the stage, the spot ** showed a general trend, among which, in Shandong, the wheat spot ** was 136~1.43 yuan catty, developed flour, Wudeli, Jinshahe and other enterprises in many places in the price range of 05 1 cent!
Third, pig prices stopped falling, and market sentiment gradually strengthened!
In the pig market, according to the analysis of pig price data, on March 6, 2024, the price of foreign ternary pigs was **006 yuan catty, the average price of live pigs rose to 704 yuan catty, the market showed a trend of stopping the fall and picking up, ** rose again into the "7 yuan era", in the mainstream areas of the north and south of the country, pig prices are mainly on the strong side!
At present, the pig market is against the trend, in the north and south regions, pig prices show a trend of most of the first, especially in the southwest region, Sichuan and Chongqing and Yunnan-Guizhou markets, pig prices are more obvious, and the price increase of slaughtering enterprises is 02~0.4 yuan or so kg!
Personally, I believe that to support pig prices, on the one hand, the southern market, the phenomenon of the first standard pig has increased again, some pig farms have more empty pens, the enthusiasm of the pig is strong, and the phenomenon of second breeding has increased, which has driven the bullish sentiment at the breeding end; On the other hand, supported by the second breeding in the south, the performance of slaughter and large-scale pig enterprises has gradually weakened, the enthusiasm for weight gain has been significantly improved, the slaughter of suitable weight pigs has slowed down, and in the north and south regions, the slaughterhouse pigs have shrunk to the factory, and the phenomenon of slaughtering enterprises raising prices and ensuring quantity has increased!
Superimposed, pork consumption demand has slowly rebounded, and the operating rate of slaughterhouses has gradually increased, and at present, the operating rate of sample slaughterhouses is 26About 55%, compared with the Lantern Festival, it has increased by 4 5 percentage points, the operating rate of slaughterhouses has rebounded, the average daily slaughter volume has increased slightly, and the sentiment of raising prices and collecting pigs has become stronger!
Therefore, based on the market multi-party benefits, I personally believe that in the short term, pig prices or will enter a strong fluctuation trend, the next 1 2 days, pig prices or will be further expanded, the north and south regions, the center of gravity of pig prices will also continue to increase, focusing on the enthusiasm of the second breed and the rhythm of slaughtering enterprises into storage! Hogs**
After the stinging solar term, pig prices and grain prices ushered in a "watershed", what happened? What do you think about this? The above is the author's personal opinion, **from the Internet!