Beijing News reporter Chen Lin editor Fan Yijing
This year's work report clearly states that GDP will grow by about 5% in 2024. On March 5, at a briefing held by the State Council Information Office, Huang Shouhong, head of the drafting group of the work report and director of the research office, said that the economic growth target set at about 5% this year is based on comprehensive consideration of various factors, including the domestic and international situation, as well as needs and possibilities, which can be said to be based on the current situation and formulated with a long-term perspective.
Specifically, from the perspective of current needs, a certain amount of economic growth is needed to expand employment, increase residents' income, and prevent and resolve risks.
This year's employment pressure is relatively large, and the work report is clear that the new urban employment should reach more than 12 million. According to the correspondence between employment and economic growth, or according to the pulling effect of economic growth on employment, it is roughly estimated that in order to achieve the employment target, the economy generally needs to maintain a growth rate of about 5%.
In the long term or in the medium and long term, China will basically achieve socialist modernization by 2035, and the per capita GDP will reach the level of moderately developed countries. According to the calculations of various quarters, the goal of socialist modernization should be basically realized between now and 2035, and the economic growth rate should be generally maintained at about 5 percent. Possibly speaking, it is a comprehensive analysis of the current supporting conditions and favorable factors for China's economic growth.
Over the years, the Party and the ** have actually done this in formulating development goals, taking into account both needs and possibilities. Huang Shouhong said that from the point of view of need, it may be better to be higher, but if there is no support, it will not be able to reach it. Can the proposed growth targets be met? He believes that there are conditions and support for achieving a growth rate of 5% this year.
First of all, to support China's economic development, including last year's achievement of 5The basic drivers behind the 2% growth rate have not changed, and they are significantly strengthened in many ways. **The work report said that China's economic development has many advantages, including the advantage of super-large-scale market demand, the supply advantage of a complete industrial system, and the talent advantage of a large number of high-quality workers. For example, in recent years, the new kinetic energy has developed rapidly, increasing year by year, and new energy vehicles have grown from scratch in just over ten years, with production and sales exceeding 9 million units last year, accounting for more than 60% of the world's production and sales.
Second, since the beginning of this year, the positive factors of economic development have increased, and some unfavorable factors restricting economic development last year have tended to weaken. At the beginning of last year, we were still working hard for a smooth transition of the epidemic, and the "scarring" effect of the epidemic is weakening this year. For example, in terms of preventing and resolving risks such as real estate, local debt, and small and medium-sized financial institutions, positive results have been achieved through concerted efforts in all aspects last year, and real estate investment and sales have generally improved. In terms of guarding against these major risks and hidden dangers, our task is still arduous, and new situations and new problems have emerged. But this year and last year are generally better, not worse. **The work report devotes a long section to the difficulties and challenges faced. However, there are difficulties every year, and the days are sad every year, and they are living well. In recent years, China has always developed, advanced, and grown in response to difficulties and challenges.
At the same time, some major policy measures adopted since last year are showing their effects. It takes a cycle for policies to take effect from implementation, and he believes that the effects of some of the policies adopted in the second half of last year will mainly appear this year.
In addition, China has accumulated rich experience in coping with the difficulties of previous years, especially those that were rare for many years last year. From the perspective of fiscal and financial conditions, China's debt ratio is less than 60%, the overall financial situation is stable, and there is still a lot of room for macro policies. In order to achieve this goal, the first work report put forward a lot of major policies, "If China's economy encounters unexpected shocks in the future, or the international environment changes more than expected, we still have reserve tools in our policy toolbox." ”
On the whole, the opportunities outweigh the challenges, and the favorable conditions outweigh the unfavorable factors. Last year, the economic growth rate could reach 52%, it is entirely possible to achieve a growth rate of about 5% this year. He said that many things need to be achieved through hard work, and achieving a growth rate of 5% this year requires overcoming difficulties and continuing efforts in all aspects.
Duty Editor: Li plus or minus.