There is a saying: "No matter how much dust of the times falls on anyone's head, it is a mountain." ”
The key words of the wine industry in 2023 can be summarized as: backlog, price reduction, cross-border, inventory. The liquor industry is in a weak cycle, and it is difficult for white, red wine or beer to cross these keywords.
In the context of consumption recovery, liquor practitioners imagined that 2023 would be a year of comprehensive revival and brilliance, but the reality gave a heavy blow to all liquor people.
2023 is precisely a turbulent year for the liquor industry. The liquor industry is facing a new adjustment.
In the new year, under the trend of "weak recovery and strong differentiation", where will the liquor industry go in 2024?
The primary goal of the industry: to stabilize the price and destock.
After 2013, liquor ushered in the first decade of development, the scale of the industry expanded unprecedentedly, and from production to sales, it was thriving. In recent years, in order to further improve performance, liquor companies have continuously expanded production and pressed a large number of goods to channels and society, resulting in an oversupply situation.
From the perspective of production, domestic liquor production has continued to decline in recent years. In 2017, the national liquor production was about 11.98 million kiloliters, and this figure will reach 6.71 million kiloliters in 2022, and the liquor production will be nearly halved in five years.
Baijiu will go through a complete cycle every 10-14 years, and the liquor industry is moving from a cycle of gradual contraction to a transition period of 25 years or even 25 years, which is undoubtedly the most difficult period for baijiu to hit the bottom.
Since 2016, the output of liquor is walking in the "downward channel" of a large decline in output at an annual rate of 15 to 20%.
In 2017, the national liquor production was 11.98 million kiloliters, and this figure will reach 6.71 million kiloliters in 2022. In 2023, the production of liquor will even drop to 5 million kiloliters.
Although 19 years ago, there was an unprecedented sauce boom in liquor. But this belongs to the return to the light, behind the scenery has long been turbulent, the price increase to the liquor industry has brought more of the disorderly competition of capital, and now the tide has receded, chicken feathers everywhere, and the tide of price reduction has been passed from the peripheral brands to the core brand of the Dachang lineage.
850 or less of the general.
5. Qinghualang and Jun Pin Xijiu of 1573,800 in Guojiao, and 540 in dreams.
6. Summary. 460 cellar 1988, Honghualang more crystal sword, blue and white 20, purple altar, more than 200 Honghualang 10, Luzhou Laojiao special song, sky blue, Huashan sword 20 years, gold diamond, more than 100 Pulang, Jin Xi, Wuliangchun, this month's good price has become next month's regular price, this year's activity price, is next year's inverted price.
However, despite the sharp decline in production, the inventory of the liquor industry is still increasing. In the first three quarters of 2023, the total inventory of 20 A-share liquor listed companies reached 1,3635.4 billion yuan. Among them, the inventories of five liquor companies, including Kweichow Moutai, Wuliangye, Yanghe, Shanxi Fenjiu and Luzhou Laojiao, all exceed 10 billion yuan. This figure is an increase of more than 30 billion compared to 2020.
Among the 20 listed wine companies, except for Shunxin's agricultural inventory, which decreased slightly, the rest showed a growth trend compared with the previous year. At present, the inventory backlog in the market is still serious.
The slow market sales, the obvious downgrade of consumption, the imbalance between supply and demand, and the large expected target make stable price and destocking become the norm in the industry.
In 2024, stable prices and destocking will still be the focus of the industry.
Famous wine pattern: stable and changing.
In 2024, the pattern of China's liquor and famous liquor is still clear. The history of liquor rivers and lakes led by Moutai and Wuliangye will continue to be written.
In 2017, the liquor industry came out of the adjustment period and officially entered a new round of rapid development cycle, after the release of risks such as destocking and shrinking consumption, the industry began to stabilize and differentiate, and high-quality enterprises with brand power + marketing power such as Moutai, Yanghe, Gujinggong and other famous liquors took the lead in coming out of the adjustment, and the industry ushered in a performance inflection point.
Subsequently, under the leadership of Moutai, the famous liquor recovered rapidly, Moutai and Wuliangye led the way, and the revenue of famous liquor such as Fenjiu, Luzhou Laojiao, Gujing Gongjiu, and Jiannanchun exceeded 10 billion, and the liquor industry entered the era of 100 billion and 10 billion.
Ultra-high-end: Under the price increase, Moutai continues to lead steadily.
High-end: The pattern of 1,000 yuan ** belt may break the steady state. This year, there has been a certain decline in 1,000-yuan wines, and second-tier 1,000-yuan wines have shown signs of moving closer to 800 yuan+. Considering the guiding nature of Feitian's price increase, in 2024, under the influence of "following the price increase + volume and price control", the competition pattern of Wuliangye and Luzhou Laojiao will be more complex, and at the same time, the thousand-yuan ** belt may be differentiated, and the wine companies with outstanding management advantages may run out of the batch price gap, and the phenomenon of "falling behind" will also appear at the same time.
Sub-high-end and mass ** belt: business margins have improved, and the competition below the mass ** belt has accelerated. At the same time, the competition below 300 yuan ** has accelerated to become white-hot.
The high-end image of the head liquor companies in the minds of consumers is deep-rooted, the brand recognition has been greatly improved, and the first-line liquor companies under the effect of famous liquor have been relatively affected by the industry adjustment.
In 2022, Fenjiu successfully surpassed Luzhou Laojiao to become the fourth in the industry. In 23 years, Fenjiu has achieved another brilliant achievement, with a growth rate of more than 27% in the third quarter, and the annual revenue is expected to reach 35 billion, gradually threatening the third throne of Yanghe. Fenjiu broke out, and the fragrance was revived.
Under Moutai, Xijiu and Langjiu are the most popular soy sauce wines, and the competition between the two is fierce, and the second soy sauce wine is still confusing.
Sub-high-end brands began to differentiate within the sub-high-end brand, and Shuijingfang took the lead in the second half of the year after the active adjustment, and the drunkard liquor is still in the process of adjustment and reform, and the competitive advantage of wine companies in the weak prosperity is quite different. The new forces of Jianghuai strong fragrance such as Shiyuan and Yingjiagong continued to develop rapidly, and Suhui liquor performed strongly.
Consumption is sinking, and high-end liquor is cold.
Affected by the environment, consumption has ushered in a downgrade, and consumers are paying more and more attention to cost performance when buying goods. The same is true for the liquor market, where the popularity of sub-high-end products of some second-tier brands or first-tier brands has risen.
According to the data of the China Liquor Industry Association, the best-selling liquor ** segment from January to May last year can be divided into 5 echelons. Among them, the first consumption accounted for 300-499 yuan, accounting for 3077%。Liquor at this price range is versatile and cost-effective, and is loved by all kinds of consumers in daily life scenarios.
Some industry insiders pointed out that in China's liquor market, the high-end field is firmly occupied by Moutai, Wuliangye and Luzhou Laojiao, and regional liquor companies are ushering in three new window periods of structural upgrading, category improvement and provincial capital expansion, sub-high-end liquor is expected to become a new engine for industry growth.
In terms of brand, the brand supported by the sub-high-end product line has ushered in great development.
Fenjiu's revenue in the first three quarters of 2023 was 2694.4 billion, an increase of 2078%；Gujinggong's revenue in the first three quarters was 15953, an increase of 2498%；The revenue of the first three quarters of the year was 836.3 billion, an increase of 2835%, the growth momentum of sub-high-end brands is rapid, and the market share is further expanding.
In terms of categories, Crystal Sword continued to dominate the list of 618 and the first place in the sales list of Double 11; 300-600 yuan has become the first stage of the fragrance category, and there will be major development opportunities in the price range of 500-600 yuan in the future; The sub-high-end soy sauce wine products represented by Junpin Xijiu and Honghualang have entered a new cycle of steady growth, and the competition in the soy sauce wine industry will be concentrated in the 300-500 yuan and 500-800 yuan ** belt in the future.
In terms of products, wine companies have rearranged the sub-high-end price range.
Langjiu re-established the Honghualang Division to consolidate the sub-high-end waist products; Fenjiu has identified Qinghua Fen 20 as the main sub-high-end growth strategy, thereby increasing the scale and proportion of Qinghua Fen and promoting the whole series to achieve major breakthroughs.
Gujing Gongjiu has proposed to build sub-high-end new 10 billion, Gu 20 and Gu 16 two sub-high-end strategic products to shoulder the heavy responsibility; Kouzijiao will launch 10 and 20 high-end new products in 2023; Baiyunbian sprints tens of billions of dollars, relying on the sub-high-end.
From the perspective of the market actions of various enterprises, "decisive battle for sub-high-end" has become the key development strategy of national famous liquor, head sauce liquor and regional leading liquor enterprises.
Liquor consumption is returning to rationality, and ** is also returning at the same time. In the era when the high-end field was carved up by Moutai, Wuliangye and Luzhou Laojiao, the sub-high-end has become a new hope for the growth of the industry.
Smoke hotels, facing consolidation.
Cigarette hotels, as a traditional retail format, are an important part of the circulation of alcohol. In the three years of the epidemic, the brick-and-mortar retail industry has been hit hard, and tobacco hotels have also been deeply affected by it, and many stores have ushered in a wave of closures.
2023 is a year of hope for the wine industry, most people want to do a big job, earn back a few years of "losses", and hope to "create brilliance", but the general trend of "exit" of cigarette hotels has not retreated, outsiders want to enter the industry, but people in the industry want to get out, the physical business of alcohol is becoming more and more difficult to do, and 2023 is still a bleak year.
In recent years, tobacco hotels across the country have generally faced the survival problem from stable profits to closing stores.
With the popularization of the Internet and the development of e-commerce, consumers' shopping habits have changed dramatically. More and more people are choosing to buy goods instead of going to a physical store. This trend is undoubtedly a huge shock for traditional smoke hotels.
The wine business wants to be hot, on the one hand, the competition is the best advantage, now most terminals no longer have the best advantage, the traditional graded dealer model, in addition to some large dealers, other terminals are even higher than the e-commerce platform.
On the other hand, relying on resource-driven liquor is competing for value, and the services provided by most terminals have lost their advantages at present. People who come across the border think that low gross profit is acceptable, and provide customers with value-added services other than selling wine, such as circles, empowerment and even resources.
After the investigation and analysis of 50 cigarette hotel owners, 50% of the cigarette hotel shipping channels in the statistical sample in 2023 rely on **, starting from the population base, China's banquet market cannot be underestimated, and the three major scenes of banquets (wedding banquets, birthday banquets, and college banquets) are expected to continue in 2024. The vast majority of tobacco hotel business needs to be supported by banquets and resources.
New cigarette hotels and small cigarette shops are weak and overly reliant on retail revenues. With the rise of live streaming and the growth of alcohol e-commerce, it is becoming more and more difficult for these cigarette hotels to do business.
At present, online wine purchase has gradually become the mainstream consumption mode, and through the interview survey of 85 drinking friends and fans, the proportion of users who choose to buy alcohol online among the 85 consumers is as high as 61%. The living environment of the cigarette hotel has been seriously squeezed, and the offline stores are either rolled up in the channel or rolled **, and the roll can only be closed if it does not move.
However, offline wine buying also has its advantages, with high credibility, convenience, immediacy, convenience and other advantages, and large liquor chain stores are still expanding by virtue of resources and advantages.
Individual retailers without the resources to support them will face significant challenges. In a sense, this is also a reshuffle and adjustment of the pattern of the wine industry. A large number of small and medium-sized tobacco hotels have closed, and brand chain stores will gradually become offline mainstream stores.
Rations wine, highlighting the encirclement.
In recent years, in the field of self-drinking consumption, "ration wine" has become a high-frequency word, and everyone's pursuit and expectation of high-quality "ration wine" brewed from pure grains is gradually forming a market atmosphere.
From the perspective of consumption scenarios: ration liquor usually refers to those liquors that are of good quality, reasonable, suitable for daily drinking and can meet the tastes of most consumers.
This kind of wine usually has the following characteristics: **affordable, good quality, usually pure grain brewing, not enough to drink after drinking, suitable for long-term self-drinking or entertaining relatives and friends. The choice of ration wine varies depending on personal spending power and taste preferences, and different people may choose different types of ration wine.
From the enterprise level: under the downward trend of consumption, the purchasing power of liquor is insufficient, so that ration liquor is once again active in the public eye. Xiao Zhuqing, an analyst in the liquor industry, believes that the lack of social purchasing power is a big problem that listed companies in the liquor industry and liquor companies cannot solve. In this context, major wineries may successively launch high-quality and inexpensive ration wines to meet the demand in the future.
In the relevant data survey, the proportion of consumers buying alcohol for self-drinking in 2023 is as high as 28%, and buying and drinking for themselves in daily life is still the main driving force for consumers to buy alcohol. Among the consumers surveyed, 25% of consumers prefer to buy ration wine within 100 yuan, and 50 yuan has become the first segment of low-end liquor, and it is also the mainstream segment of ration wine and bare bottle wine.
The ration wine market is continuing to expand. This trend is not expected to change much in the next one to two years.
From the perspective of categories: at present, the public ration wine on the market presents a strong and clear double world. In the field of strong fragrance, Wuliang Jianzhuang, Luzhou Laojiao Touqu, Yinjiannan, Tuopai T68, Gujing Gongjiu Milk Bogong, Shuanggou Famous Glass, Yucian Daqu and other products have formed a mature and perfect ration wine system in the market.
For fragrant wine, the new national standard will promote the upgrading of light bottle wine, and at the same time, it is more conducive to the expansion of large fragrance, such as Fenyang Wang, Baofeng, Yellow Crane Tower, Hengshui Laobaigan, etc., accounting for half of the public ration wine.
Bofen, the core product of Volkswagen ration wine, is also the fist product of Fenjiu, with no packaging box and simple appearance, but it is of good quality and is loved by all kinds of consumers. On the mainstream e-commerce platform, Bofen's sales have remained high so far. As early as 2021, Bofen's sales have reached 6 billion yuan, and it is estimated that the compound annual growth rate of Bofen is about 15%, and the revenue is expected to exceed 10 billion yuan by 2025.
As a national famous liquor, Fenjiu has a high recognition in the hearts of consumers, and high-quality famous liquor can be drunk at a price of about 50 yuan, which meets the consumption needs of consumers. Behind it is actually a more cost-effective light bottle wine and mass ration wine products, which are being welcomed by consumers.
After two years of high-end and sub-high-end scuffle, the sauce-flavored liquor, which is known for its quality, has gradually put down its body and entered the mass market. In 2023, with the launch of the Moutai family's Taiyuan Liquor and Xijiu's Yuanxi Liquor, the battle for soy sauce liquor in the public ** belt will be fully launched.
Thirty Famous Sauce and Liquor Company has successively launched public ration sauce wine, banquet wine, daily party sauce wine and other scene wines, and there are large coupons sent almost every day in the live broadcast room of Sister Sauce Xiang.
Friends who like to drink sauce-flavored liquor must be ****** and Sister Sauce's live broadcast room. Whether it is ** and quality, Thirty Famous Sauce Flavor Liquor will not disappoint you.
In addition to the head wine companies, other wine companies are indeed not easy to live. The sluggish sales will inevitably be transmitted to the expansion of the distillery's production capacity. The impact of the first on the Internet, the head live broadcast room can beat the ** of some large factories to the point that there is no profit left, the big brands are like this, and the small brands can be imagined!
The reshuffle of the winery and the reshuffle of the product are inevitable in these two years. This is not a bad thing for consumers, because there can be more high-priced, high-quality wines, and those low-quality wines can be automatically screened out.
Consumption capacity determines the market, which is the most simple logic of the market economy. In 2024, when many general circumstances cannot be changed, it may be necessary to be prepared for a tight life.
A few suggestions for liquor companies in 2024:
1. Develop cost-effective single products as soon as possible and make profits thinner. Ditch the high-margin mindset. Improve the quality of the wine, come up with a good inventory, and reduce the routine.
2. Do exclusive and customized around the scene. The essence of customization is to roll in different tracks and find a scene with a moat (the current 100 surnames of the 30 meritorious names are customized, it is in this direction, the gift corresponds to the other party's surname, there is sincerity, and the banquet is served with its own exclusive surname wine, which has face. Make it a niche number one brand.
3. Reduce costs and open up channels. The cost reduction is in all aspects, and for wine companies, optimizing the first-chain process, such as the AI anchor of the electric market, is something that needs to be considered in the weak cycle.
4. With the aging of the liquor user group and the gradual reduction of consumption level, the liquor industry has fallen into a mid-life crisis. The liquor market in 2024 still needs the joint efforts of major brands to develop in a younger direction, after all, a generation will eventually grow old, but there are always people who are young, and seizing young people is to seize the future market.
People who read a lot can have more temperament In 2024, the liquor industry will adapt first and then break through, as long as you don't rest on your laurels, even if it's a deep foot and a shallow foot, the liquor industry is still an industry with good development prospects. There is a long way to go, and we can only forge ahead.