Text |Kiyowa Chi Honsha's president
Every year, the market pays close attention to the analysis of the current economic situation and the goals and policies for the new year in the work report. As the expression of the economic situation becomes more and more rigorous, we tend to look at the economic situation in reverse from the perspective of economic goals and policies, and infer the behavioral logic of economic decision-making. It's a brain-burning job.
OnegdpExpected goalsLeft and right:How to reduce the temperature difference between macro growth and micro body feeling
According to this year's work report, the GDP grew by about 5%, and the surveyed urban unemployment rate was 5About 5%, the increase in household consumption by about 3%, the growth of residents' income and economic growth are the same as those mentioned in last year's work report.
However, expectations have changed. Before the "two sessions" last year, the market's expectations for GDP growth were generally high, and this year's expectations are basically consistent with the first target. In the past two years, I feel that the expectations of the local government and the public for economic growth have gradually returned to the trend of declining potential growth.
Some people ask if the 5% GDP target is good to achieve?
Simply compared with last year, last year's GDP growth rate was 52%, this year's consumption trend has fallen, investment has weakened, exports have been repaired, and the overall growth rate may be slightly lower than last year due to the large consumption base. Except for a few special years, the economic data released by the year-end statistical department can meet the GDP target set in the ** work report.
When it comes to GDP, the biggest reaction from the public is that there is a "temperature difference" between macro growth and micro feelings. Micro-perception varies, generally speaking, from income, profit, employment, ** atmosphere, and uncertainty expectations.
In terms of income, the proportion of disposable income in GDP was 60% at the international level, 83% in the United States, and 45% in China last year. If this proportion is raised to the international level, the annual disposable income of Chinese households will increase by about 19 trillion yuan, and the microscopic perception will rise, and the temperature difference will naturally shrink.
Last year was the first time in the past five years that the real growth rate of China's disposable income "outperformed" the real GDP growth rate, that is, the goal of "simultaneous growth of household income and economic growth" was achieved. So, where does the "temperature difference" come from?
The growth rate of median household income "underperformed" the per capita growth rate, indicating that the average was pulled up by the high-income group and the low-income group was averaged. The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) is grouped according to the quintile income of residents across the country, of which the per capita disposable income of the low-income group is 9,215 yuan, and the high-income group is 95,055 yuan, which is about 10 times that of the lowest-income group. If we look at the curve of each income group in the last five years, we can see that the curve is steeper in the highest income group and the curve is more flat in the bottom three income groups. The "temperature difference" between the perception of the highest income group and macroeconomic growth is small.
How to increase the income of the low-income group? ** As mentioned in the work report, "the minimum monthly standard of basic pension for urban and rural residents will be increased by 20 yuan, and the basic pension for retirees will continue to be raised". I'll talk about it below.
II. II. IIcpiIncreasesLeft and right:How to avoid low and high debt negative feedback
For a long time, China has not been worried about deflation, but has a strong sense of preventing inflation. What does "CPI increase by about 3%" mean? As has been the case, it has been tacitly set at the maximum inflation target, i.e. the CPI does not exceed 3%; Instead of the minimum target, boost the CPI to 3%. The general public has also formed this perception, fearing inflation, insensitive to deflation, and not taking the inflation target seriously.
However, the current economic situation is not much different from the past. Last year, the market had an impact on corporate profits, tax revenues, resident employment and income; At the same time, the debt ratios of localities, developers and residents are high, and the rise in real interest rates caused by the decline has raised the cost of financing and the burden of debt servicing.
Economists have been debating whether there is a negative feedback relationship between high debt and low debt, and whether they trigger a balance sheet recession. Some economists believe that we should attach great importance to the problem of low **, especially low ** in the context of high debt, to avoid the formation of negative feedback relationships.
In fact, it is now necessary to consider boosting inflation as one of the goals of macroeconomic policy. For example, a minimum CPI target is needed and incorporated into the goal of monetary policy. During a deflationary cycle, the Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank, the Bank of Japan, and the Bank of England all target monetary policy to boost inflation (typically 2%), or even the only goal.
However, China's interest rate marketization is not as high as that of Europe, the United States and Japan, and the efficiency of monetary transmission is low. In addition, the public may not understand this, if the macro policy goal is to "boost the CPI to 2%", it may lead to the misunderstanding of "big release".
In my opinion, first, it is necessary to take boosting inflation as one of the clear policy goals, and the most important role is to reverse the expectation of continued low inflation; Second, interest rate cuts and structural reforms should be coordinated to improve the efficiency of monetary transmission, which will eventually be achieved by increasing household income and driving demand to rebound.
ThreeThe deficit rate is proposedArrangementUltra-long-term special treasury bonds have become the main mode of investment
The financial budget is the focus of attention of the "two sessions" every year. This year's work report proposes that the active fiscal policy should be moderately strengthened, and the quality and efficiency should be improved. The deficit rate is planned to be arranged at 3%, and the deficit size is 406 trillion yuan, an increase of 180 billion yuan over the budget at the beginning of the previous year. It is proposed to arrange local ** special bonds 39 trillion yuan, an increase of 100 billion yuan over the previous year.
In addition, starting from this year, it is planned to issue ultra-long-term special treasury bonds for several consecutive years, which will be specially used for the implementation of major national strategies and security capacity building in key areas, and will be issued with 1 trillion yuan this year.
There's a lot of information here. First of all, looking at the deficit rate, the market expects that it will generally exceed 3%, so is this year's fiscal expansion conservative?
We're going to look at the actual deficit ratio. In the last decade, the deficit rate has not exceeded 3% in most years, but the actual deficit rate has exceeded this figure. The size of the deficit this year is 406 trillion yuan, plus 3 special bonds9 trillion yuan, ultra-long-term special treasury bonds 1 trillion yuan, a total of 896 trillion yuan, more than the sum of the three last year. In addition, 1 trillion yuan of special treasury bonds were issued at the end of last year, and if all of them are transferred to use this year, the actual deficit ratio may reach 72%。
However, it is not enough to look at the deficit rate, which is calculated on the basis of the revenue and expenditure of the general public budget. In addition to the general public budget accounts, there are also sexual accounts. We need to see whether total public expenditure outperforms total public revenue in practice.
Secondly, we will look at the "plan to issue ultra-long-term special treasury bonds for several consecutive years starting this year......This year, 1 trillion yuan will be issued first". What signal does this send?
Last year, when the issuance of 1 trillion yuan of special treasury bonds for the construction of waterproof and disaster-prevention projects, I said that the issuance of special treasury bonds will become the main mode of investment in the future. This is confirmed by this ** work report.
What do you invest in ultra-long-term special government bonds? It is mainly a national project, including flood control and drainage infrastructure, new infrastructure, major scientific and technological innovation projects, etc., and this year's budget investment is planned to be 700 billion yuan.
Nowadays, the overall tone is to increase leverage and localize debt, specifically, to issue special treasury bond investment, provincial government to issue special refinancing bondization bonds, and local governments below the provincial level to strictly control new debt and investment with the help of policy bank credit. Among them, special refinancing bond financing will crowd out the actual financing and effective investment of special bonds, and the actual effective investment is more dependent on ** investment.
To a certain extent, this can reverse the problem of debt and credit mismatch and reduce the risk of local debt, and it also means that the investment model will continue to be strengthened on the new road of ultra-long-term special government bonds. In fact, the key is not the deficit rate and fiscal expenditure, but the direction of fiscal investment and the effect.
FourMonetary policy expectationsThere will also be a rate cut, but real interest rates will remain elevated
The expression of monetary policy is that a prudent monetary policy should be flexible, moderate, precise and effective, promote a steady and moderate decline in the comprehensive financing cost of the society, and maintain the basic stability of the RMB exchange rate at a reasonable and balanced level.
The tone of this year's monetary policy can be evaluated in four words: flat and stable.
First of all, the steady decline in the comprehensive financing cost of the society means that the interest rate will be cut, and maintaining the basic stability of the RMB exchange rate at a reasonable and balanced level means that the interest rate cut will not be very large, similar to last year's small interest rate cut.
Second, the pursuit of precise and effective monetary policy means that on the basis of interest rate cuts and aggregate instruments, structural monetary tools are emphasized, and RRR cuts, interest rate cuts and liquidity support are provided to specific areas. This year, mortgage supplementary loans will be restarted to support the "three major projects", and the excess of structural monetary instruments is expected to exceed 8 trillion yuan. This also shows that the overall rate cut will not be very strong.
In this way, we return to the question of real interest rates. In 2023, due to the rapid pace of the market, the central bank will not cut interest rates as fast as ***, so that real interest rates will rise rapidly. Using four methods, we estimate that China's real interest rates are close to historical highs and are also high among the world's major economies.
If the central bank cuts interest rates similar to last year, it can be speculated that the real interest rate will still be high this year, and if the ** is repaired, the real interest rate will fall, but it will still be higher than the natural interest rate and at a restrictive level. It is still recommended that the central bank increase the intensity of interest rate cuts, reduce the debt burden of households and enterprises, and reduce the inhibition of real interest rates on the repair and economic recovery.
FiveEstablish the new and dilapidated the old"Artificial intelligence"Entangled with the thinking of the real estate industry
This year's work report emphasizes new quality productivity and high-quality development, and ultimately falls on the improvement of total factor productivity, relying on new industries and new technologies.
*The work report said that it will consolidate and expand the leading advantages of industries such as intelligent networked new energy vehicles, accelerate the development of cutting-edge emerging hydrogen energy, new materials, innovative drugs and other industries, and actively build new growth engines such as biomanufacturing, commercial aerospace, and low-altitude economy. At the same time, we will deepen the R&D and application of big data and artificial intelligence, carry out the "artificial intelligence +" action, and build a digital industrial cluster with international competitiveness. These are the contents of "new creation".
Taking into account the external environment, more financial and monetary resources will be concentrated on intelligent networked new energy vehicles, artificial intelligence, semiconductors, biomanufacturing, commercial aerospace, low-altitude economy, and digital economy, and seek "innovation". Major funds**, including commercial bank loans (the "five chapters of finance"), special bonds and ultra-long-term treasury bonds.
The expression of real estate is: to adapt to the development trend of new urbanization and the changes in the supply and demand relationship of the real estate market, and accelerate the construction of a new model of real estate development. Increase the construction and supply of affordable housing, improve the basic system related to commercial housing, and meet the needs of residents for rigid housing and diversified and improved housing.
This is not much different from the statement after the economic work conference in July last year, indicating that the real estate policy continues the overall tone since the second half of last year. Briefly summarize two points: one is to relax or cancel restrictive policies, cut interest rates and reduce the down payment ratio, reduce the cost of buying a house, and stimulate rigid demand and improved demand; The second is to invest in the "three major projects".
CRIC data shows that in February 2024, the TOP100 real estate companies will only achieve sales of 1858600 million yuan, down 20 percent from the previous month9%, down 60% year-on-year, and the scale of monthly performance hit a new low in recent years.
It can be seen that the real estate market has not stopped falling and stabilized, and the debt risk of developers still cannot be resolved. If real estate continues to deteriorate, it will hinder the continued recovery of the economy.
In the past year, investment in new technologies and new manufacturing industries has increased significantly, trying to fill the gap caused by the decline in real estate investment, so as to promote the transformation of new and old production capacity, and realize the establishment of new and dilapidated and changing horses. It's an industrial mindset.
In fact, all investments are deferred consumption. Without final consumption, investment is prone to excess or even waste. The best track is the consumer market, which is a wide and boundless track. The best horse is the family department, as long as the family department eats grass, the natural horse gallops. The increase in residents' income, the expansion of the consumer market, and the enhancement of endogenous economic momentum will naturally promote technological progress and the prosperity of various industries.
Returning to the policy aspect, we should focus on raising the income of ordinary households, and in addition to further cutting interest rates to reduce the debt burden of households, fiscal policy should have a lot of room. China is in a period of Wagner acceleration, and it should shift the direction of fiscal spending from infrastructure investment and industrial investment to family welfare, and directly increase the income of ordinary households through tax cuts, cash distribution, and social security.
Infrastructure investment is the expansion of people in space, which is suitable for the period of industrialization, urbanization and high population growth; The construction of family welfare is the expansion of people in time (life), which is suitable for the post-industrialization, post-urbanization and population aging periods.
* The work report mentions that "the minimum monthly standard of basic pension for urban and rural residents will be increased by 20 yuan". The number of rural elderly people over 60 years old in the country has reached 1300 million, accounting for 46 percent of the country's elderly population4 percent, they receive a monthly pension of only one or two hundred yuan, while the average annual pension of urban workers is about 20,000 yuan. It is necessary to significantly increase the amount of rural pensions.
Raising the income of ordinary families seems to be untechnical, but in fact it is to the point and the source of poverty.