In February, domestic corn was fully developed, can it continue to climb in March?
In February, especially after the Spring Festival, in the festive atmosphere, the frequent blowing of policy warm winds, as well as the frequent rain and snow weather in the main producing areas, increased and affected the domestic corn market in stages, pushing up the corn.
In some areas, farmers still have large surplus foods. As a result, March corn is likely to continue the February trend and be the focus of the current market attention. This article will provide a brief analysis of this.
At the beginning of February, affected by the approach of the Spring Festival, market participation declined, the purchase and sales of corn in the domestic market gradually decreased, and the corn ** tended to stabilize.
After the Spring Festival, the grassroots purchase and sales activities have not yet fully recovered, and at the same time, the production areas have also begun to continue to rain and snow weather, the amount of corn is limited, and the effective supply of the market has become tighter in stages. Due to the fact that this year, the leading merchants and downstream grain-using enterprises have adopted a small number of operation strategies in terms of destocking, and after the Spring Festival consumption, the inventory of downstream grain-using enterprises has dropped to a low level, and there is a demand for replenishment. Under the influence of the phased reduction and increase in demand, downstream enterprises have raised prices to promote income and push up corn.
From the perspective of sub-regions, after the Spring Festival, due to the snowfall and the drop in temperature are conducive to storing grain in the field, the enthusiasm of grassroots farmers to actively or passively sell grain has declined, and the market has shrunk. Subsequently, due to the influence of political and commercial storage, the bullish mentality was strengthened, resulting in 60-110 yuan tons of corn in Northeast China in February. However, we should also note that at the end of the month, with the increase in the volume of northern ports, some port merchants began to temporarily reduce their acquisitions.
In North China, after the Spring Festival, affected by rain and snow, grassroots acquisition and trading activities have not returned to normal levels, while downstream enterprises have begun to replenish inventory, and deep processing enterprises have raised prices to promote income; In the second half of the year, with the improvement of the weather, although the amount of corn increased slightly, but the first business purchase enthusiastically, driven by North China, the corn in February rose slightly by 30-60 yuan.
From the perspective of grain and oil sales progress, on February 29, the average progress of grain and oil sales in Northeast China was 58%, 11% slower than the same period last year. Heilongjiang was basically the same as the cereal sales progress in the same period last year; The progress of grain sales in Jilin, Inner Mongolia and Liaoning is relatively slow. According to the research data of the institution, the current surplus of grain in Heilongjiang accounts for about 90%, and the Jilin region accounts for about 30%. As the temperature rises in March, the northeast region will enter the peak period of land grain sales, and the pressure on the corn market will increase compared with February.
From the perspective of demand flow, the main direction of corn ** in the Northeast in March was local deep processing and feed enterprises in the south. At present, the average inventory days of deep processing enterprises in Northeast China are about 24 days, which is lower than the level of the same period in previous years.
From the perspective of the demand of feed enterprises in the south, affected by the atmosphere of the Spring Festival in February, the amount of sea under the northern port decreased significantly, and in March, with the recovery of demand, the amount of sea under the northern port increased accordingly, which is good for corn**, but it is expected that the animal husbandry industry will continue to be weak in March, and the amount of corn animal feed is difficult to increase significantly.
In the intermediate channel, more than 60% of the small and medium-sized ** merchants currently have an inventory of 3,000-8,000 tons. As corn **continues ** after the Spring Festival, the desire to gradually increase stocks tends to be cautious! However, since grain depots and large grain companies have been open to acquisition, small and medium-sized merchants can continue to follow the more favorable corn ** to a certain extent.
Based on the above factors, Xin Nongming believes that in the first half of March, due to the slow rise in temperature, the pressure is not large, and the main body of procurement increases, corn may be sorted out at a high level; After the middle and late half of the year, as the temperature rises, the sales window period of the grain source nest time is shortened, the market increases, in the feed enterprises to maintain on-demand procurement and deep processing enterprises and business are expected to build positions under the influence of the supply and demand synchronously, but the supply exceeds demand, and it is expected that the first will fall. Corn ** is expected to be higher than demand in the Northeast.
In northern China, grain sales in northern China averaged 42% as of Feb. 29, 19% slower than the same period last year.
On the demand side, the operating rate of deep processing enterprises in North China during the Spring Festival holiday this year was higher than that of the same period in previous years. According to agency statistics, the operating rate of deep processing enterprises in North China is higher than in previous years, which means that there is a substitute demand for corn raw materials.
In terms of animal feed production, the current demand for corn from grain, oil and animal feed enterprises is still at a low level, and the demand for increase is limited.
Overall, the short-term supply and demand game of the corn market in North China, the main corn tends to be stable. In the middle of the year, with the improvement of farmers' enthusiasm for selling grain, the replenishment of downstream demand, and the health of the first business, the North China corn market will usher in a situation of both supply and demand, but in view of the large base of surplus grain, if the grain sales period is more concentrated, North China corn ** in mid-March has the possibility of a slight decline.
To sum up, the pressure on corn in the domestic market in March is still very large, and the demand side support is limited, and there is still room for corn to build, but with the gradual decline, the intention of building inventory in the commercial link has increased, and downstream feed companies also have replenishment needs, and corn may have a slight rebound at the end of the month.