– The market's ** may depend on the US employment data and Powell's testimony this week.
In early trading on Monday in Asia, following the rise in the U.S. on Friday, this week will enter a week of frequent events.
1. China's financial market will enter conference mode, and volatility is expected to slow down.
2. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell will travel to Capitol Hill to deliver semi-annual monetary policy testimony to the House Committee on Wednesday and to the Senate panel on Thursday. The next week the Fed will enter a period of silence before the meeting, which will be its last chance to communicate with the market.
Powell is expected to double down on his message that he is not in a hurry to cut interest rates, especially after new inflation data shows that price pressures persist. But this is not just a speech, Powell will also answer questions from lawmakers. Democrats (concerned that the direction of interest rates will affect the ** election and the next round of voting in November) are expected to pressure Powell to ask why so much progress has been made on inflation while still risking hurting the economy to keep rates at such high levels. In addition to Powell, other ** will also give speeches, and they are expected to start warming up for "slowing down balance sheet reduction". We're most concerned about Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari's interview with Wall Street on Thursday, and often the Fed's remarks in interviews can have a significant impact on the market, as reporters ask random questions that can be misleading, whereas a typical speech only needs to be scripted. If Kashkari were talking to his chief economic journalist Nick Timiraroos, who was called the "new Fed news agency," it would have had a significant impact on the market. 3. Friday's non-farm payrolls data will set the tone for the week. Economists expect employment growth to slow sharply to 18 in February80,000 and the unemployment rate is expected to remain at 37%, while hourly revenue growth is also likely to slow down.
If the data is in line with market expectations, then traders will raise their bets on a rate cut as it all heads towards a weaker labor market and slower inflation growth. However, the problem is that the market's expectations have been significantly depressed, the actual value is more likely to meet expectations, and analysts are more interested in the "expected" value than the "previous value".
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