Kunpeng Project
Reading guide:Growth and value fly together,In terms of configuration,This one meets expectations,But when this trend really appears,We are a little unhappy,Because the structure is getting stronger and stronger,It means that the group is getting stronger and stronger,At present, it is almost divided into two factions,One is based on high dividends,Such as oil and coal,Constantly new high;The other faction is dominated by the TMT sector, for example, some core varieties of computing power have also reached record highs, and the result of the huddle is that sooner or later high-quality assets will be pushed to the stage of valuation bubbles, which will lead to the collapse of the huddle or a decline in yields!
Let's take a coal as an example, and the dividend was 21 per 10 shares in July last year8 yuan, 2 cents per share18 yuan, corresponding to the ** of the day is 1681 yuan shares, so the dividend rate is as high as nearly 13%, but recently, its stock price has reached a maximum of 2702 yuan shares, the growth rate of profits can never reach the growth of stock prices, if the stock price has been maintained high, then even if this year's dividends are still the same as last year, its dividend yield will drop to 8%, dividend income will decrease, and the potential risk is that dividend income will also decrease.
To put this simply, once the stock price is too high, the dividend yield will decrease, and there will be a cash asset group, and the capital gain is significantly greater than the dividend, and the result is a rapid decline in cash yield, which is a potential risk, and the only way to break this risk is that the growth rate of profits can reach or approach the growth rate of capital gains, as in the previous case, 27The corresponding dividend of 02 yuan shares must be 3 cents per share51 yuan, theoretically, this was 2On the basis of the dividend of 18 yuan, it increased by 61%, which is the pressure on the enterprise.
There is an obvious feature, the SSE 50 failed to outperform the Shanghai Index, which means that high dividends are actually clearly differentiated, and some of the industries in the weight are still rising, which means that the funds have formed a group, subjectively speaking, if this thing continues to the entire first quarter, then even if it is the reform of the central state-owned enterprises, the industry will be overvalued, which is not conducive to the second quarter, or to put it another way, the second quarter is likely to rotate and differentiate, and it is inevitable for institutions to adjust positions and exchange shares.
As for the TMT plate, the best of the best is probably inevitable, for now, we only have one sentence to describe: in the early stage of the development of the industrial chain, selling shovels is more valuable than digging **, because the development of the industry has not yet reached the time when the middle and lower reaches can cash in profits, with production tools, there will be products, and the downstream can be cashed, this order can not be wrong......
As mentioned above, growth and value fly together, reflected in the industry, petroleum and petrochemical, coal, pharmaceutical and biological, communications and utilities and other industries led the rise, note that there are still some rotations, except for petroleum, petrochemical and utilities close to the trend **, the fluctuations of the rest of the industry are still obvious, which means that there is actually a differentiation and preference in the attitude of funds in the day; Sectors such as real estate, non-bank building materials, banking, and food and beverage led the decline.
There are two highlights of today's industry or theme, we first look at real estate, which can be said to be a trigger and move the whole body, in fact, Hong Kong stocks also have a good relationship with real estate, but today, whether it is Hong Kong stocks or A-share real estate, there has been a leading trend, and even the entire industrial chain, this trigger point is a rumor of real estate and insurance, saying that the debt extension negotiations of 10 billion yuan between a certain section and a certain Hua were rejected, and I will not mention it specifically, but there is one point, we see that "22 a certain branch 06" fell by nearly 20%," 20 A certain section 08 "fell by as much as 35%, so ......
In the face of CRO's sudden **,It's a little stunned.,It's quite interesting.,Lao Mei will hold a hearing on Wednesday.,The theme is 1.On the 26th, the proposal of several CRO companies, if it is legislated, it will be very troublesome, but if not, the early adjustment will be a little messy, so the market has come to a first rise for respect, which is quite chaotic, but the market is like this, whether it is legislation or not, this matter makes investors a little uncomfortable, so wait for the news disclosure on Wednesday.
Looking back at the index, the overall is a small **, however, the intraday volatility is still obvious, especially the double creation and small and medium-sized micro, the overall performance of the weight is relatively stable, but the growth and value of the mid-cap is relatively strong, and the Shanghai Index rose 041%, Kechuang 50 rose 037%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 004%, GEM rose 059%, of course, whether it is CSI 300 or SSE 50, the overall performance is relatively stable, in line with the main tone.
On the time-sharing chart, the Shanghai Composite Index Shen Dang fell, 10After 09 minutes, it bottomed out**, and then unfolded around the red plate line**, 14After 30 minutes, it rises slightly and runs **, and the time-sharing ** is stronger than the yellow line, indicating that the small and medium are weaker than the weight, pay attention to 10The selling pressure before 09 points objectively existed, and there was a dense selling order, so the opening was the first display of cash demand, and then the ** was the state of selling shrinkage and a slight increase in buying.
Let's take a look at the GEM, the volatility is relatively greater, but it is also less and stronger than the Shanghai Index, and it is quickly higher after opening slightly higher, 9After 49 points, the dive turned green, 10After 09 points, *** It's a pity that there is no new high, 13After 19 minutes, it dived, and was above the red line**, the end of the market rose slightly, and the yellow line was weaker than ** throughout the day, especially 10Before 09 points, it shows that the common denominator of the two cities is that they are small and medium-sized cash.
1. The total turnover was 1,086 billion.
2. **3170.
3. The outflow of main funds was 25.8 billion.
4. The outflow of foreign capital was 7.1 billion.
The typical characteristics on the time-sharing chart to describe the state of the funds should be "playing while withdrawing, and then withdrawing and then playing", but the degree of withdrawal is obviously greater than the magnitude of the fight, but the total outflow of domestic and foreign capital is 32.9 billion, and the index is red, which means that there is an invisible buying in the support, if nothing else, it may still be GJD in the market, of course, continuous trillion transactions, institutions or not, in fact, they are already very active, so as long as the weight can be maintained slightly, the theme of hot spots can attract a lot of investors, And GJD's shot is probably to stabilize ......
During the meeting, A-share "reversing and loading people" is not expected, Xiaoyang ** is very good, first close to 3070 points, however, this week may be more test of the sensitivity of the transaction, theoretically, this week's requirements for the frequency of trading is to be amplified, to maintain the level of more than one trillion transactions, the market is likely to continue, if there is an acceleration on Tuesday, especially the aforementioned huddle, you may have to be more cautious, don't let the profits be wiped out too much, when it is time to shoot!
I am Muyi, sharing my cognition, but not as an investment basis, profit and loss are the same, knowledge and action are one!