Black Swan Landing! Today's evening's six major news hits in full swing (37）！
1. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell: Interest rates may be cut appropriately at some point this year. Cutting interest rates will depend on economic trends and data, and you won't expect inflation to reach 2% to lower interest rates. If the economy is in line with expectations, interest rates will need to fall significantly in the coming years.
Interest rate cuts are a sure thing, but it depends on how long Lao Mei will stiffen up. However, discerning people know that most of the world's funds have begun to choose to slowly withdraw from the US market and enter the low-valuation capital markets such as big A and Hong Kong stocks. Therefore, if the U.S. stock market weakens slowly, don't worry, our big A and Hong Kong stocks are likely to move in completely opposite directions, and even come out of a wave of slow bulls.
Second, the black swan lands! What will be the impact of the final passage of this bill?
1. It is completely forbidden to cooperate with domestic CRO companies, and the biggest beneficiaries are Samsung Biotech and several CRO companies in Japan and Europe.
2. For Indian generic drugs and their raw materials, it is particularly good, which can smoothly seize the domestic market share, and deal a heavy blow to the export business of Chinese pharmaceutical companies, especially those that export to the United States.
3. In the future, domestic pharmaceutical companies will sign a document without proof of Yao Ming's relationship before exporting to the United States, and they can only be exported after review.
4. In short, the experience of the biosecurity bill system born this week has made the Chinese people see the ugly face of the other side of the Pacific Ocean again, and the destruction of the business model will inevitably backfire. Of course, a comprehensive ban on WuXi will inevitably lead to an increase in the R&D costs of local drug manufacturers in the United States, resulting in an increase in costs, resulting in an increase in drug **, and the public is afraid that it will be difficult for the public to accept, and finally I want to say that the wolf has a shotgun, and our relevant departments have actually paid attention to a series of problems, and they will definitely be guarded against, you sanction me, I will support you, this is our play, don't say anything about pharmaceuticals, as long as we have an advantage this month, we will inevitably be hit, new energy photovoltaic is lithium battery, and it is also an electric vehicle.
Third, the production equipment to the group as the representative of the general machinery demand peak, since 2012 after the downward bottoming, according to the service life of about 10 years, will also affect the salt before, may be expected to usher in the high growth of new demand and high-end upgrading of products, high-end machine tools, industrial robots, injection molding machines, construction machinery, are worth paying attention to.
The equipment in the house, high-speed rail, ships and other transportation equipment have entered the peak of maintenance and renewal, high-speed railway was launched 20 years ago, 10 years ago experienced rapid development, according to the maintenance of the EMU for about 10 years, about 25 years of renewal has entered a critical stage.
In fact, the update of equipment and bulk consumer goods is determined by the market, such as household appliances, which can continue to be used for about 10 years. The old equipment of the enterprise is used well, and now the benefits are not good with fewer orders, and the demand for updating equipment is in**? This also helps the industry in the early stage of the operation of the better enterprises to give subsidies, there is a motivation to upgrade the equipment, the operation of the poor operation of the enterprises to give subsidies do not change or have no ability to upgrade, equipment is not upgraded, the competitiveness is getting worse and worse, the result is to be eliminated by the market.
Fourth, why this round of **, liquor, medicine, photovoltaic new energy lithium mines are very weak, mainly because the main track of these ** managers was too high at the beginning, and it is still not cheap after a large **, if the current liquor is 10 15 times the price-earnings ratio, I am afraid it is very strong.
There are also people who hold different views, **just look at the valuation, those**good ones should not be at all**, such as artificial intelligence concept stocks, to have no performance, it is nothing more than to use foreign open source resources to set a mouth, if all are open source one day, many large models in China will be worthless, and some people think that it is mainly a problem of chip games, and they are reluctant to go to these tracks, because to go is to take over to others, to fry artificial intelligence to make ** high-level pick-up, their own interests can be maximized, There is also this kind of grouping in the special valuation, the more it rises, the more ** will come to take over, and so on** will not move and start **, A shares are all in the Ningde era before this routine, and the Moutai of 2400 yuan is still vivid.
Fifth, professionals take action to make small and medium-sized investors feel warm.
1. Protecting the legitimate rights and interests of investors, especially small and medium-sized investors, in a market like ours where small and medium-sized investors account for the vast majority is the core task of the regulatory authorities.
2. Investors are market capital, listed companies are the foundation of the market, investors and listed companies are the source of the development of the capital market, we must treat investors sincerely, better serve investors, and further strengthen the protection of investors from the legal system, regulatory law enforcement, etc., there are investors who do not have good investment objects, and the interests of investors are also difficult to realize.
3. Only when investment and financing develop in a balanced way and enter a virtuous circle can the capital market develop benignly. The meaning of this sentence can be understood as that if investors lose a lot of money, the financing side will be affected, and the virtuous circle is the development of investors to make money and finance.
6. Dividends reach 40% of profits
1. The dividend is not less than 40% of the net profit of the parent company, which means that Ping An's dividend is no longer only linked to the operating profit, so the flexibility of the dividend will be increased in the year when the investor's income is better.
2. After Ping An's dividend payout ratio increases from 2021 to more than 40%, if it maintains more than 40% of dividends in the future, it will be higher than the dividend payout ratio of about 30% of China Merchants Bank and large state-owned banks, which is a high dividend yield in the large financial sector.
3. Last year's stock price was about 60 yuan per share, with a dividend of 2 yuan and 5 cents, and now the stock price is 34 and a dividend of 2 per share7 yuan, the same money dividends this year are twice as much as last year, Ping An H dividend of China is almost 8%, 1 million ** dividends are more than 80,000 yuan, and the bank is only 2% interest.