Black Swan Landing! Four or three major news shocks in the early hours of this morning** (38）！
1. Black swan landing! The U.S. Senate Homeland Security Committee overwhelmingly passed the Biosecurity Act. With 11 to 1 votes, this score gave the market a resounding slap in the face, and at the same time dropped a potential "bomb" in the hearts of every investor, especially for WuXi AppTec, the biotech giant on our A** field.
First of all, we have to understand what this "biosecurity bill" is. To put it simply, this is a new bill introduced by the United States to strengthen biosecurity and respond to biological threats. Its main contents include strengthening the supervision of biotechnology research and development, and strengthening the safety requirements of biological laboratories. It sounds lofty, but for a company like WuXi AppTec that conducts drug development and manufacturing on a global scale, it undoubtedly increases operating costs and compliance difficulties.
So, what impact does this have on WuXi AppTec's performance? Let's break it down.
We have to admit that the passage of this bill is a big blow to WuXi AppTec. First, increased compliance costs and regulatory uncertainty may impact a company's R&D efficiency and cost control. Second, as WuXi AppTec works with a number of U.S. biotech companies, these partners may face similar pressures, which could affect their collaborative projects.
Let's take a look at the market's reaction. Following this announcement, WuXi AppTec's share price saw a noticeable **, reflecting the market's concern about the change. Although the current decline is still manageable, if the implementation rules of the bill are more stringent, then the impact on WuXi AppTec may be further deepened.
Second, the central bank - there is still room for subsequent RRR cuts.
This year, there will be a lot of money. There is room for a RRR cut to further release funds to the market, plus a fiscal deficit rate of 3% to release funds406 trillion, local ** special bonds 39 trillion yuan, and 1 trillion yuan of ultra-long-term special national bonds, adding up to 10 trillion level. If you add to this the Fed's interest rate cuts and release liquidity to the world, the market will not be bad for money in 2024.
The bull market is driven by funds, and when market confidence is fully restored, all kinds of capital freaks will run into the market, pushing the ** to become more and more popular. Historically, the bull market has been in the initial faltering of the rise, moving forward in hesitation and doubt; Accelerate at high and peak in frenzy. While the market is still at a low bottom, a large number of high-quality chips are still lying on the floor, and dips are an opportunity to do a medium- and long-term layout.
The medium-term pattern of A-shares is becoming clearer and clearer, the situation is getting better and better, there are more and more conditions for a bull market, and the medium-term market is becoming more and more worth looking forward to. The first wave of ** has entered the final stage, and the second dip is a good opportunity for low absorption in my opinion.
3. The net selling volume of northbound funds on Thursday was 214.1 billion yuan. The top three net ** Kweichow Moutai, Yangtze River Power, and ZTE bought 3 respectively5.1 billion yuan, 28.3 billion yuan, 22 billion yuan. The top three net sellers were CATL, WuXi AppTec, and Cialis, with net sales of 41.6 billion yuan, 37.3 billion yuan, 33.7 billion yuan. Foreign capital mainly flows into liquor, electricity, and communications; It mainly flows out of lithium batteries, medical treatment, and vehicles.
Analysis: On the daily chart, the MACD red column continues to shorten, the top divergence continues to increase, the KDJ three-line slight death fork goes down, the J line goes down to +74, and it is still in the strong area, and the upward trend of the DMA indicator golden cross divergence remains unchanged; From the perspective of the first system, Thursday's impact on the October line fell back to the 5-day line, but today's opening 10-day line gradually followed up the support, long and short difficult to make a big difference, comprehensive research and judgment: again suppressed, the bulls counterattacked.
Rushing up and falling back and then closing in the negative, will it stop abruptly? There are two reasons for the resistance to the rise and fall on Thursday: first, the pressure on the October line is greater on the technical side, and in the case that the 5-week line has not been effectively followed, it is very reasonable to hit the October line and fall back, as the previous blog has said many times; Second, the high-level shouted that artificial intelligence needs to "put the brakes on the road and then go on the road", which the market understands as to "clean up" artificial intelligence, which makes the technology sector fall sharply across the board, thus suppressing the ** stock index.
* Consolidation eliminates the divergence on the top of the daily chart, and after waiting for the 5-week line to follow, it will regain the October line, first attacking the 3100-point mark. Qianbo has said many times: the spring offensive of the Year of the Dragon should attack the 30-month line near 3200 points, and then after a long period of time (expected to be 2-3 months), * will stand firm at the 3200 point mark and march towards 3500 points, and even cross 3500 points and point to the 3700 point line.
Looking forward to today, excluding the impact of sudden major news, the main operating range is 3025-3050 points, the limit operating range is 3015-3060 points, and the maximum amplitude is 45 points. Considering the decline in U.S. stocks, today's ** when the inertia opened low, and stabilized again after stepping back on the 10-day line.