Original Liu Xiaobo.
This morning, the Second Session of the 14 th National People's Congress (NPC) opened. **The work report is the focus of attention of the whole society.
Here are the top 8 highlights of the report:
Aspect 1: The economic growth target is set at "around 5%".
Comments: Previously, the domestic **, including this number, predicted that the GDP growth target in 2024 was likely to be 5%. However, foreign economists and ** have always expressed skepticism, believing that it may be less than 5%. Now here comes the answer.
It is relatively modest to set the growth target at around 5 percent. First, it is not slow, and identifying such a goal can send positive market signals and improve expectations. Second, it is not easy to achieve, so macro policies need to further "hit the accelerator" and the property market will pick up.
Since the beginning of 2024, macro policies have been significantly strengthened. For example, the RRR and interest rate cuts in February were twice as strong as before. The "urban real estate financing mechanism" recently established in various places will also bring at least more than 1 trillion yuan to the real estate industry, or even 1More than $5 trillion in new loans. Last year, the country's new development loans were only 200 billion yuan, and we can see how strong this year's efforts are.
The other main growth targets remain the same as in 2023: more than 12 million new jobs in urban areas and a surveyed urban unemployment rate of 5about 5%; Household consumption** increased by about 3%.
Aspect 2: The deficit rate is 3%, and the deficit scale is 406 trillion yuan.
Comment: The deficit rate is 3%, which is the same target as set in the 2023 work report. But the actual deficit rate for 2023 is at 3More than 8%, it is estimated that the situation will be similar this year, and it will eventually break through 35%。
In addition, this year's report also proposes that the scale of general public budget expenditure is 285 trillion yuan, an increase of 1 over the previous year1 trillion yuan. It is proposed to arrange local ** special bonds 39 trillion yuan, an increase of 100 billion yuan over the previous year.
Local special bonds and ultra-long-term special treasury bonds are not included in the deficit. Therefore, although it seems that the deficit rate is not high, there are still more means to stimulate the economy.
Aspect 3: Starting from this year, it is planned to issue ultra-long-term special treasury bonds for several consecutive years, and this year it will issue 1 trillion yuan first.
Comment: "Ultra-long-term special treasury bonds" refer to treasury bonds with ultra-long maturities (more than 10 years), issued at opportune times, with special purposes and without deficit.
The report said: In order to systematically solve the problem of funding for the construction of some major projects in the process of building a strong country and national rejuvenation, it is planned to issue ultra-long-term special treasury bonds for several consecutive years starting this year, which will be specially used for the implementation of major national strategies and the building of security capacity in key areas, and 1 trillion yuan will be issued this year.
Generally, ultra-long-term government bonds have maturities of up to 30 to 50 years. In 1998, the Ministry of Finance issued a 30-year special treasury bond of 270 billion yuan to "improve the capital adequacy ratio of the four major banks", which can be regarded as China's first batch of "ultra-long-term special treasury bonds".
At present, the leverage ratio of Chinese companies is basically the highest in the world (including urban investment bonds), and the leverage ratio of residents is also a bit high. Among the debts, the local debt ratio is obviously high, and the debt ratio is relatively low. Therefore, it is imperative to increase the scale of treasury bond issuance and resolve the risk of local bonds.
At a time when the desire for private investment is sluggish, the issuance of "ultra-long-term special treasury bonds" can play a role in stimulating the economy. This type of government bonds, like special local government bonds, are not included in the deficit.
Aspect 4: Talk about the current situation and difficulties.
The report said: We are also soberly aware of the difficulties and challenges we are facing. The complexity, severity and uncertainty of the external environment have increased. The foundation for China's sustained economic recovery is not solid, the effective demand is insufficient, social expectations are weak, and there are still many risks and hidden dangers. Some small and medium-sized enterprises are struggling to operate. Aggregate employment pressure and structural contradictions coexist. The weak link of safety production cannot be ignored. ** There are deficiencies in the work, and the phenomena of formalism and bureaucracy are still prominent. Corruption is still a problem in some areas.
Aspect 5: Talk about **, requiring "enhancing the internal stability of the capital market".
Comments: Although the report does not directly express ** (capital market), this sentence is very worthy of attention. Since January this year, there has been a large decline, snowball products, private placements, etc., and the risk of equity pledge is in jeopardy.
At such a special moment, it is inevitable that the national team will enter to save the market. In the past two months, it is estimated that nearly one trillion incremental funds have entered the market, coupled with the replacement of the China Securities Regulatory Commission and the introduction of a series of measures, which has basically maintained the basic stability of the market.
However, the danger period has not yet passed, and the motivation of various forces to short-sell ** and short RMB assets is still there. More measures are needed to stabilize the market.
Aspect 6: Interest rates will continue to be cut this year.
Comments: Regarding this year's monetary policy, the report says that a prudent monetary policy should be flexible, moderate, precise and effective. Maintain reasonable and abundant liquidity, and match the scale of social financing and the amount of money with the expected targets of economic growth and the highest level. Promote the steady and moderate decline of comprehensive social financing costs。Smooth the monetary policy transmission mechanism to avoid the idling of capital precipitation.
Promote the steady decline in the cost of comprehensive social financing" means that interest rate cuts are the main tone of this year. After the February cut, there will be at least one or two more rate cuts this year. The key to reviving the economy is to stimulate the enthusiasm of enterprises for investment and the enthusiasm of residents for consumption through a large interest rate cut.
At present, nearly 140 trillion yuan of household deposits and nearly 30 trillion yuan of bank wealth management have been piled up in the banking system. It is proposed to significantly reduce the interest on deposits and the yield on bank wealth management this year.
Aspect 7: Real estate has a new expression.
The latest statement of the report is: to adapt to the development trend of new urbanization and the changes in the supply and demand relationship of the real estate market, and accelerate the construction of a new model of real estate development. Increase the construction and supply of affordable housingImprove the basic system related to commercial housingto meet the rigid housing needs of residents andDiversificationDemand for improved housing.
Comments: There are two points worth paying attention to in this passage, one is "diversified and improved housing demand", and the other is "improving the basic system related to commercial housing".
In the past, the official often said "to meet the needs of residents for rigid housing and improved housing", but now "diversification" has been added before "improvement", which is actually the "good house" said by the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, which includes luxury houses and is personalized.
Our previous commercial housing system did not support luxury housing, and even improved it was restricted, such as the "7090 policy", "restriction order", "price limit order", etc. At present, it not only emphasizes the demand for diversified improvement, but also emphasizes the "improvement of the basic system related to commercial housing".Illustrates that a great change is coming.
It is conceivable that in the future, the "7090 policy", "restriction order" and "price limit order" may be cancelled, and the purchase restriction of high-end real estate may also be cancelled. Previously, Guangzhou has lifted the purchase restriction of residential buildings of more than 120 square meters, and it is believed that more cities will follow suit in the future, such as Shanghai and Shenzhen, but Beijing is estimated to be more difficult.
Only by encouraging wealthy households to spend more on good houses can we stimulate consumption and turn savings into investment and tax revenues. This is actually the same reason as encouraging the replacement of cars, mobile phones, and home appliances.
The report also proposes to optimize the real estate policy, support the reasonable financing needs of real estate enterprises under different ownership systems without discrimination, and promote the steady and healthy development of the real estate market.
Aspect 8: Point out the "new outlet" of investment.
The report proposes to vigorously promote the construction of a modern industrial system and accelerate developmentNew quality productivity。Give full play to the leading role of innovation, promote industrial innovation with scientific and technological innovation, accelerate the promotion of new industrialization, improve total factor productivity, constantly shape new momentum and new advantages for development, and promote new leaps in social productivity.
In addition, the report also mentions big data, artificial intelligence, commercial aerospace, low-altitude economy, quantum technology, life sciences, intelligent networked new energy vehicles, hydrogen energy, new materials, innovative drugs, etc.
Comments: This once again proves that China will comprehensively promote the transformation of the economy from "large infrastructure + real estate + local bonds" (the era of money printing) to "capital market + scientific and technological innovation + real economy" (the era of printing).
The new industries and technologies mentioned in the report are not only new industrial outlets, but also new investment outlets, which will be reflected in the capital market.
In addition, the work report also proposed that this year will increase the minimum monthly standard of basic pension for urban and rural residents by 20 yuan, increase the per capita financial subsidy standard for residents' medical insurance by 30 yuan, fully cancel the restrictions on foreign investment access in the manufacturing sector, and relax the market access of telecommunications, medical and other service industries. Enhance the convenience of foreign personnel to work, study and travel in China.