Zhitong Finance and Economics learned that according to JPMorgan Chase's global asset strategy team, global gasoline demand may shrink next year, which is the first time this has happened outside of the recession. "Outside of the recession, increasing pressures from electrification and efficiency improvements could lead to the first contraction in global gasoline demand by 2025, with a cumulative reduction of 900,000 barrel days by 2030," Marco Kolanovic, a strategist at the team, wrote in a note. ”
Kolanovic said it was moving along the path of electrification. By 2023, global sales of electric vehicles (battery electric vehicles, plug-in hybrid electric vehicles, hybrid electric vehicles) could reach 21.6 million units, accounting for 33% of total vehicle sales; In Europe and China, the market size is shifting from early adopters to early majority, while the U.S. remains an emerging market.
Kolanovic added that sales of BEVs are still growing, but the pace of growth seems to be slowing, and hybrids are becoming the bridge technology to BEVs. At present, all-electric or partially electric vehicles account for a significant share of the total number of vehicles, accounting for about 7% of the global total, and between 2019 and 2023, global gasoline demand could be reduced by about 500,000 barrel days, of which 400,000 barrel days of reduction will come from the United States and China.