Key takeaways:
2023 review: China's auto market will recover moderately in 2023. In the first three quarters, the investment in fixed assets in the automobile manufacturing industry was +20 year-on-year4%, 14 ahead of the manufacturing industry2pct, it is expected that the annual domestic car sales will be 29 million, a year-on-year increase of +790%。The export of independent brands and the optimization of new energy structure are the highlights. In 2023, the structural optimization of new energy will bring about an increase in performance and valuation.
Outlook for 2024: The economy will recover, the supply of new products will increase demand, and the export market will continue to increase. It is expected that passenger car sales in 2024 will be 26.69 million units, a year-on-year increase of +64%, of which the sales of new energy passenger vehicles are expected to be 11.43 million units, and the penetration rate will rise to 4285%，Total exports are expected to be 643970,000 units, which is the core market for the increase in the automobile market. The highlights are the consumption upgrading driven by the increase in exchange for more than 50%, the sinking of consumption in the rural market, and the increase in the supply of products.
Key takeaways:
The time point of railway 5G-R iteration is approaching, and the analog-to-digital dispatching is advancing simultaneously. China's railway wireless communication system has undergone several iterative upgrades, since 2008, all new (re)built lines have adopted GSM-R railway mobile communication system, and the current GSM-R network has covered about 890,000 kilometers of railway mileage, while about 70,000 kilometers of feeder railways use a 450MHz wireless dispatching system for railway dispatching**. Due to the long running time of the GSM-R system and the 450MHz analog dispatching system, some equipment has been or is about to be discontinued, and it is difficult to maintain
At the same time, the "14th Five-Year Plan" for the development of modern comprehensive transportation system was issued, which clarified that in 2025, it will "implement a new generation of railway mobile communication private network project", and the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology will no longer license the frequency use of the 450MHz railway analog communication system frequency band after September 30, 2024. As a result, the trend of upgrading the railway wireless communication system to the next-generation network is clear, and the existing railways and new lines will bring a large amount of communication equipment space.
Key takeaways:
Hyperuricemia has become the "fourth highest", and the incidence of gout at home and abroad has increased significantly, and the patients are showing a trend of younger development. Hyperuricemia is the most direct occurrence of gout**, with a global prevalence of 26% to 36%, 003%～15.3%, according to Frost &Sullivan's calculations and the "2021 China High Uric Acid and Gout Trend*** As of 2020, the number of people with high uric acid and gout in the world is 9300 million people, the number of people with hyperuricemia in China is about 17.7 billion, the number of gout patients is about 14.66 million, taking into account China's future population growth trend and increasing prevalenceThe number of people with hyperuricemia and gout in China is expected to reach 2400 million people.
Clinical pain points - there is a lot of room for early education, there is no drug for primary gout, and there are general safety problems in existing drugs. At present, there are two main first-line drugs: xanthine oxidase inhibitors (XOI) and URAT1 inhibitors, mainly including allopurinol, febuxostat, benzbromarone, etc. The safety and efficacy of the marketed drugs have not met the existing clinical needs, and gout patients have a strong demand for new and safe uric acid excretion drugs.
Focus - the existing global R&D pipeline is abundant, and many domestic companies are deployed, focusing on progress and efficacy. At present, many domestic companies such as Haichuang Pharmaceutical, Hengrui Pharmaceutical, and Poinsettia have taken the lead in laying out clinical pipelines of hyperuricemia and gout drugs, each with its own advantagesNew drugs are expected to be launched in the next three yearsThe safety and efficacy of drugs is the biggest attraction for companies to gain competitive advantage.
Key takeaways:
The launch of new models and the increase in export contribution are expected to increase sales by 60%+ year-on-year in 23. The company's product matrix is complete, and a number of new H2 models have been launched, including Yangwang, Denza N8, Seal DMI, etc. In addition, the company actively promotes the layout of overseas markets, and the volume of overseas markets helps sales growth, and we expect BYD's new energy vehicle sales to be about 3 million units in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 60%+, and its ** market is expected to be about 250,000 units. At the same time, 2024-2025 is a big year for products, and it is expected that the sales volume will be about 400.5 million units, an increase of 33% and 25% year-on-year.
The installed capacity of batteries has increased year-on-year, and shipments are expected to nearly double in 23. In November 23, BYD power and energy storage battery installed capacity 169GWh, +54% +11% year-on-year, with a cumulative installed capacity of 133 from January to November2GWh, a year-on-year increase of 69%;Benefiting from the global large-scale power station project, it is expected that the company's battery output will be about 180GWh in 23 years, nearly doubling year-on-year, of which energy storage battery shipments will be about 30GWh, an increase of 150%+, contributing a significant increase.
Key takeaways:
A leading enterprise of strain gauge sensors, its market share ranks first in China. The company started in the strain gauge load cell industry, and expanded to the downstream system integration, weighing instrumentation and other businesses. According to the data of the joint research network and the company's WeChat public platform, the domestic strain sensor market space exceeded 3 billion yuan in 22 years, and the company's market share exceeded 25%, ranking first in China. At the same time, the company has the characteristics of high profitability and strong ROE among domestic comparable companies, and the gross profit margin of the company in 23Q1-3 has reached a new high since its listing.
Horizontally expand multi-physical quantity sensor products and vertically dig deep into the needs of the Internet of Things. On the product side, the company and its subsidiaries have more than 10 varieties of light curtains, optoelectronics, currents, gases, etc., and the fusion of multi-physical sensors raises the growth ceilingOn the scenario side, the company vertically digs into the upstream and downstream of the industrial chain, and its subsidiaries involve upstream chips, software companies, and downstream intelligent manufacturing scenarios of mines, food, and powders, and feeds back the development of the company's sensor business through the development of scenarios.
Key takeaways:
Tongfu Microelectronics is a leading domestic and world-leading integrated circuit packaging and testing service provider, focusing on providing one-stop solutions from design to packaging and testing for global customers. The company has achieved this by combining multi-chip components, integrated fan-out packaging, 2With the advantages of advanced packaging technologies such as FCBGA and Chiplet, we continue to strengthen in-depth cooperation with customers to meet their needs in terms of AI computing power. The global layout of the production base creates a dual cycle at home and abroad.
In-depth cooperation with AMD continues to benefit from the dividends of the AI era. Through mergers and acquisitions, the company and AMD have formed a strong alliance model of "joint venture + cooperation" and established a close strategic partnership. The company is AMD's largest packaging and testing provider, accounting for more than 80% of its total orders, and in the future, with the integration of key customer resources, the synergies generated will continue to benefit the entire industry chain.