Key takeaways:
The last mile to fight inflation", although the pace is slowing, is expected to be close to the inflation target by the end of 2024. Headline inflation has fallen rapidly in the previous period, driven more by supply-side improvements (mainly energy, food, and core goods).
Looking ahead, the "dividend" of supply-side improvement will gradually fade (perhaps only core goods remain), and the decline in inflation will depend more on the cooling of the demand side, so the pace of inflation decline will also slow down significantly. But judging by the leading indicators and fundamentalsThe inflation target is already within reach。According to our model**, the headline CPI and core CPI are expected to fall to 2. QoQ by mid-20246% and 28%, which will fall to 2. by the end of 20242% and 24%, which is close to the Fed's target inflation of 2%.
Key takeaways:
Compared with last year's "afterburner and efficiency", the addition of "moderate" and other expressions may indicate that the follow-up fiscal policy will pay more attention to sustainability and reasonably expand under the premise of ensuring fiscal sustainability and controllable debt risks. We believe that in 2024, we should continue to reasonably grasp the space for leveraging in the first sector, especially in the first sector, under the condition that the foundation for economic repair is not yet solidThe deficit rate can continue to exceed 3%., recommended at 34% or more, and tilt appropriately to ***.
At the same time, the new quota of special bonds next year should not fluctuate sharply, and can be appropriately reduced to 36-3.7 trillion and tilt towards new infrastructure, new energy and other fieldsImprove the efficiency of the use of fundsand optimize the expenditure structure.
In addition, it can be adapted to demandQuasi-fiscal instruments such as policy-based development financial instruments should be launched in a timely mannerIt can be flexibly used for infrastructure investment and debt resolution without affecting the leverage ratio and deficit.
Key takeaways:
*The cooperation model with brokers will change dramatically. The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) promulgated the "Regulations" to reduce the transaction commission to make profits to the general public, and at the same time standardize the scope of use of the transaction commission, so that the commission can be truly used in research services, and improve the investment level of the seller's research service and the buyer's investment.
In the context of the new regulations, the sell-side research institute of the brokerage may experience a strong supply-side reform. Small and medium-sized sell-side research institutes that are not strong enough in research may struggle to survive and need to consider business transformation. After the reform of the registration system, the importance of the research business of securities companies in the entire business chain has been greatly enhanced. We believe that in the future, the brokerage research institute will shift from a single business model to an organic combination of institutional, individual and industrial research, and the research of small and medium-sized brokerages should highlight the characteristics and avoid blind expansion. The general direction is the transformation from sell-side research to buy-side research. Public offerings need to be open source and reduce expenditure, saving less service demand for investment and research help.
Key takeaways:
On the supply side, under the fiscal expansion, it is necessary to pay attention to the pressure on the supply of interest rate bonds or will increase, but considering the limited expansion of local ** debt, the overall impact and impact are expected to be within a controllable rangeOn the demand side, the new regulations on debt and capital are important factors affecting investor behavior, and there may be a certain differentiation between the behavior of banks and non-banks. However, from the current macro picture, the bond market will still face a situation of insufficient supply of high-coupon assets, stable and balanced capital and limited recovery of risk appetite in 2024, which determines that the asset shortage pattern is expected to continue.
The bond market may still be in a bull market environment in 2024, but the structural characteristics may be more significant.
Whether the short-end space with the capital side as the main disturbance can be opened will determine the phased game opportunities, and further combined with the observation of the long-end point, the current 1-year MLF is at 2At the level of 50%, based on the current macroeconomic picture, the interest rate on 10-year Treasury bonds is at 270% of the positions, it will enter the range with cost-effective configuration.
Key takeaways:
New drivers have driven steady economic growth. Under the effect of a series of policy "combination punches", the positive factors of economic growth continue to accumulate, the effectiveness of stable growth is gradually emerging, the high-end, intelligent and green manufacturing industry is solidly promoted, the growth of new drivers is accelerating, related industries have maintained a rapid growth rate of more than double digits, and the supply side has shown growth resilience beyond expectations.
On the demand side, with the issuance of trillions of national bonds, the acceleration of the transformation of urban villages, and the upgrading of the kinetic energy of emerging industries, the effect of macroeconomic regulation and control combination policies will be further revealed, the scale of fixed asset investment will continue to expand, the demand for optional consumption will rebound, and the growth rate of imports and exports will turn from negative to positive. In the long run, the cost-effectiveness of domestic equity asset allocation has improved, and the issuance of special refinancing bonds has alleviated the debt risk of urban investment platforms in weakly qualified regions, and short-duration targets are worth paying attention to.
Key takeaways:
In summary, the impact of the fixed increase plan on the conversion of bonds is biased towards pulse, which mainly depends on factors such as the degree of equity dilution, the theme of the underlying stock and the trading sentiment. From the perspective of the market average, the fixed increase plan as a whole has a small negative pulse on the convertible bonds, which will be gradually repaired in 1-3 trading days after the plan.
In addition, from the perspective of case distribution, for the fixed increase plan, the post-event reaction is more obvious than the ex-ante trend, and with the increase in the adjustment of equity conversion, the feedback of debt conversion is more obvious. To sum up, it is not necessary to pay too much attention to the private placement plan in advance, but for the companies that have been announced, it is still necessary to pay attention to the impact of the change in the value of the underlying stock on the convertible bonds.