The United States wants to confiscate Russia's 300 billion assets, and China's 769.6 billion U.S. debt is also in dangerThere is no time to wait for a full sell-off
According to the latest reports, as the United States' support funds for Ukraine are close to exhaustion, in order to continue its aid to Ukraine, the United States has proposed a plan to use $300 billion of Russia's frozen overseas assets, and is trying to discuss with its allies how to use the funds. In this regard, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Ryabkov issued a strong warning to the United States.
Earlier, Ryabkov had warned that if the United States confiscated frozen Russian assets, it would touch Russia's "red line". In a recent interview, he once again stressed that if the United States does make this move and use these assets to aid Ukraine, then Russia may "break off diplomatic relations" with the United States.
Ryabkov noted that the United States should not have the illusion that "Russia is clinging to Russian-American relations with both hands."
There are still questions about whether the United States will take confiscation measures against Russian property. Under normal circumstances, the United States is unlikely to take such extreme measures, especially given that the Russian side has clearly issued a warning of "severing diplomatic relations".
Although the United States currently views Russia as a "competitor", maintaining bilateral relations between major powers has important implications for global stability. It is unlikely that the United States will be willing to take on a global crisis triggered by the severance of diplomatic relations with Russia, which is a risk that the United States is not very willing to take.
Moreover, to date, there has been no precedent for the unlawful confiscation of property of other States between States. If the United States dares to break with this tradition, it will seriously shake its international credibility and undermine the global financial architecture. This could lead to other countries being reluctant to keep their money in the U.S. or buy U.S. bonds.
There are doubts as to whether the United States will take action to confiscate Russian property, and given that such a precedent is established, Russia may also use the same tactics to confiscate American assets in Russia. Therefore, under normal circumstances, the United States is not inclined to resort to such extremes.
As far as the current situation is concerned, the United States is trying to negotiate with its allies to confiscate Russian property in order to gain more leverage in future Russia-Ukraine peace talks and force Russia to make some concessions.
Considering the gradual bottoming out of aid to Ukraine by the United States and its Western allies, it is difficult for Ukraine to continue the conflict in the absence of aid. Therefore, the current strategy of the United States may be to strive for more favorable terms in the peace talks in order to reduce the losses faced by Ukraine. In future negotiations, the United States may use the issue of confiscation of Russian property as a bargaining chip to achieve a more favorable outcome for Ukraine.
In general, however, the U.S. bottom line is not measured by the usual standards, especially given the current fiscal woes in the United States.
It is understood that a Biden **senior** recently said that the world's major banks are faced with a choice, whether to choose to violate sanctions against Russia, sell goods to the Russian military industry, or choose to maintain ties with the US financial system. However, the ** also reminded banks to take into account the size of the U.S. economy and the fact that the U.S. dollar is the only currency in the world.
It is clear that this ** is threatening the banks of various countries, suggesting that if they continue to trade with the Russian military-industrial complex, the United States will cut off their ties with the American financial system. As for the confidence of this remark, it is clear that it stems from the global hegemony of the US dollar.
Therefore, in the face of an extremely serious debt crisis in the United States and the unresolved conflict between Russia and Ukraine, it cannot be ruled out that the United States may break the bottom line and take extreme measures to confiscate Russian assets.
Although this is only an analysis and speculation, it is undeniable that the striking statements of the American side suggest that they have at least considered real action. After all, as one U.S.** put it, the U.S. dollar is still the world's main currency in circulation. Therefore, it can be said that in the case of the existence of the hegemony of the dollar, there is a certain risk for countries to deposit funds in the United States or buy American bonds, which is an indisputable fact.
At the moment, China is continuing to sell US bonds, and this strategy seems sensible. However, it is worth noting that China still holds $769.6 billion in US bonds, far more than double the $300 billion in frozen assets of Russia.
According to the latest October National Capital Flows Report released by the U.S. Treasury Department, China has continued to ** US bonds for the seventh consecutive month, with $8.5 billion in October alone. It is worth noting that throughout October, China only weakly increased its holdings of US bonds in March, showing a clear sell-off trend overall, albeit at a relatively slow pace.
While a gradual approach to U.S. bonds can avoid angering the U.S. into taking extreme steps to stop paying its debts, the key problem is that if the U.S. really intends to abandon its debt repayments, too slow a pace could lead to huge losses. Therefore, it is imperative for China to sell US bonds in full.
In this context, how to effectively mitigate the impact of the US dollar on the global financial architecture and reduce the hegemony of the US dollar has become an important issue that requires urgent attention and practical action.
In this area, China is actively increasing its reserves, and promoting the use of local currency settlements in bilateral exchanges with other countries, so as to encourage countries to increase the use of their own currencies and reduce their dependence on the US dollar.
In addition to these initiatives, China and developing countries, in particular the SCO member states and the BRICS countries, are discussing a common currency for the organization.
In general, most countries in the world are aware of the potential damage of the hegemony of the dollar to their own economies, so they have implemented "de-dollarization" policies to varying degrees. The hegemony of the dollar will eventually come to an end, and the hegemony of the United States will face the same challenge. Therefore, it is better for the US side to adjust its behavior from now on and not be overconfident that hegemony is permanent.