On January 31, the pre-sale of new films for the 2024 Spring Festival file officially opened, which means that the Spring Festival film announcement war has also entered the "sprint" stage.
The Spring Festival is the largest schedule of the year, and it is a node for production, distribution, and theater to focus on competition. According to the Guotai Junan research report, the actual screening time of the Spring Festival films from 2021 to 2023 is 6 days, but the box office contribution accounts for more than 12% of the year, and the proportion has continued to increase since 2014.
At the same time, the Spring Festival stalls contributed more than 10% of the number of moviegoers with 2% to 3% of the annual film screenings, and the average number of moviegoers per game was about 5 times the annual average. The performance of the Spring Festival stalls is directly related to the box office results of the whole year, for the producers and distributors, among the top ten films in the box office of mainland film history, 6 are from the Spring Festival stalls, "the Spring Festival stalls win the world".
As of January 30, 9 films have been finalized for this year's Spring Festival, 8 of which will be released on the first day of the Lunar New Year. According to the data of Lighthouse Professional Edition, the top three movies in the "want to watch" are "Hot and Hot", "Bear Infested: Reversing Time and Space" and "Flying Life 2", with a cumulative number of people who want to watch 440,000 and 34 respectively80,000, 3120 thousand.
Judging from the pre-sale situation, the data of Lighthouse Professional Edition shows that as of 17 o'clock on January 31, the total pre-sale box office exceeded 30 million yuan (including screenings). "Article 20", "Hot and Hot" and "Flying Life 2" temporarily ranked in the top three of the Spring Festival pre-sale box office list, with pre-sale box offices exceeding 9 million yuan.
The industry generally expects that the box office revenue of this year's Spring Festival stalls is expected to exceed 6 billion yuan. It is worth mentioning that the total box office revenue of the Spring Festival stalls in 2023 will be 60400 million yuan.
Watching movies during the Chinese New Year has become a 'New Year's custom' for many young people, and on the whole, the total box office revenue of this year's Spring Festival stalls is expected to exceed 6 billion yuan. Zhu Yuqing, the founder of Juyinghui, said in an interview with ** reporter that "Hot and Hot", "Flying Life 2" and "Bear Infested: Reversing Time and Space" have a strong audience base.
In the research report, Everbright ** used the volume and price dismantling method and the total box office method of the film to estimate the box office, and the comprehensive conclusion is that the box office of the Spring Festival stalls in 2024 is expected to exceed 6 billion yuan.
Chen Jin, a data analyst at Lighthouse Professional Edition, told the reporter that this year's New Year's Day file achieved a "good start" with a box office of 1.5 billion yuan, and the upcoming Spring Festival file is the first Spring Festival file with an 8-day holiday in history, judging from the data of the Spring Festival file in previous years, there is still a lot of room for improvement in the per capita viewing frequency, which is expected to lay a good foundation for the Chinese film market in 2024.
Behind the popular films is the competition of the leading companies in the film and television industry. For example, Xinli Media, a subsidiary of China Literature Group, a listed company, is the first producer of "Hot and Hot", and also participated in the distribution work; Guangguang Media, a veteran film and television company, is the first producer and distributor of "Article 20"; Alibaba Pictures participated in the production of "Hot and Hot", "Flying Life 2" and "Let's Shake the Sun Together", and is also the co-producer and distributor of "Bear Infested: Reversing Time and Space".
Judging from the viewing habits, the audience tends to only **1 to 2 works with excellent word-of-mouth and popularity during the Spring Festival. Under this pattern, the Spring Festival film market is increasingly showing a pattern of film box office faults. Huatai ** said in the research report that the filmmaker's publicity and distribution investment and pre-screening pre-sale will affect the first day of filming, and the core variable affecting the subsequent box office trend of the film is the quality of the finished film. "The logic that the quality of the finished film determines the box office will be verified again in the Spring Festival in 2024. ”
*: China.com.