As 2023 draws closer to the end, China's economy in 2024 has also been released, and the economic growth rate in 2024 is estimated to fall at 45% up and down.
With the easing of foreign relations and the implementation of the Federal Reserve's interest rate hikes, the unstable factors that affected the economy in the past have gradually been considered "controllable", coupled with the recent stabilization of real estate financing debt, we believe that the economy will slowly return to normal in the future.
However, investment is definitely not a matter of making a lot of money, and it cannot be rushed.
How to do a good job in investment allocation, and how to allocate the direction of investment, this is one thing to be laid out now.
The overall direction of the housing market in 2024 will be to control the quantity more than the price.
In the past two years, many people think that the housing market seems to be no longer vibrant.
In this regard, we infer based on the housing price index and the central bank's report that the housing market will have three major trends in the future: "stagflation, shrinking transaction volume, and unpopular apartments".
Generally speaking, the value of assets in China's property market is not obvious.
According to official statistics, housing prices have rebounded in many cities after about 10 years of the previous year, and there has been no significant sharp decline.
*:Nbs.
However, in large quantities.
In the third and fourth tier cities, there are a large number of homes for sale.
In big cities, many investors also struggle to find buyers.
Taking Shanghai as an example, 5,100 units were transacted in Shanghai's new housing market in October 2023, a month-on-month increase of **2026%；The second-hand housing market traded 15,097 units, about 13 units from the previous month75%。
In ** terms, this is a heavy selling pressure, and many landlords are unable to sell at their own expectations.
In this case, we do not recommend that investors judge the trend in 2024 by the number of transactions, but by the "number of transactions" to observe the strong rigid demand for housing, and then judge the future trend. 
In terms of sales of new and second-hand homes, we believe that the transaction volume of pre-sold new homes will continue to be bullish in the future, and the overall housing market will not be too weak.
There are two reasons for this:1The pre-sale market has the characteristics of installment payment, and now there is even a down payment in some places for new house pre-sale, which is more friendly to most of the rigid needs with insufficient funds.
2.Because of the need for land, all localities will continue to stimulate new home sales and encourage the introduction of more preferential policies.
As a user who just needs it, you should follow the policy in a timely manner, and you can get on the bus under the opportunity of appropriate interest rate subsidies, extension of loan grace period, extension of loan term, etc.
If you are an investor, it is recommended to wait until the loan restriction policy is completely removed, which is a more suitable time to enter the market.
Today, China's economy is nearly four times the size of Japan's GDP, and it is said that one-third of global economic growth comes from China's contribution.
But what is not commensurate with this volume is the capacity of A-shares.
Looking at the world, the undervaluation of A-shares is obvious to all, and Munger, who has just passed away, has been very optimistic about investing in China, and from 2010 to 2022, he has publicly talked about the recognition of China's outstanding listed companies at least five times.
On October 30 this year, he also predicted that China's economic prospects over the next 20 years would be better than that of almost any other large economy.
A shareholder asked him:
Since most of the best companies in the world are in the United States, shouldn't we focus on the best companies in the United States?”
Munger said bluntly: I don't agree. In my opinion, the most powerful companies are not in the United States. I think Chinese companies are stronger than American companies, and they're growing faster. ”
Maybe many people will laugh dumbly when they see this, because the trend of Big A is not strong this year.
But Munger also added the latter sentence:
The fruit of China hangs even lower, and some companies have gained a foothold. There's a big pie in my arms, and I'm staring at the one in the sky, that's not right. ”
Munger's investment concept is not complicated, and his biggest inspiration to us is that the best company is really a good company, a company that really creates value for customers, rather than playing some opportunistic financial means.
As a value investor, the director is still firmly convinced that "fishing where there are fishes".
The more intense the bearish market, the stronger the short-term pain will be, but when the bullish market starts, the rewards will be fast and fierce, and will soon compensate for all the shorts' later volatility.
At present, the double low W pattern of A-shares has formed, and most of all bullish markets in history have started this way.
However, investment is by no means blind, but to think clearly about the company's thoughts and behaviors, understand the company's operating model and structure, financial planning, financial report analysis, and what is the impact of external policies on stock prices, and establish their own judgment standards and capabilities.
None of this is easy, so we need to think about how we can customize our strategy and execute it clearly.
Today, the director will mainly talk about how to choose the best time for excellent companies.
In investment practice, Warren Buffett's most common method is to use a reasonable *** excellent company, it is difficult for an excellent company to appear in our favorite, but as long as you are patient enough, you can still wait.
First of all, in the bear market, the market panics, mud and sand, good companies are easy to be killed by mistake, in recent years, the a** field is popular to speculate small, speculate new, more stable industries are more than one, some high-quality industries are not interested, this may be the opportunity to start.
Secondly, when the industry encounters a black swan, the favorite company encounters a negative situation, which is also an opportunity for investors.
Historically, the milk industry exposed melamine incidents, the meat products industry exposed clenbuterol incidents, all of which ran out of the industry's high-quality **, the pharmaceutical industry suffered a heavy drop in anti-corruption stock prices, and now it has begun to rebound, which is an opportunity for investors to ** outstanding companies in the industry.
Finally, do research before you make a move, don't bet on a single company, especially technology-related targets, you must be involved in creating multiple configuration combinations.
Investment is the most taboo, which story is good to listen to.
Because everyone's risk tolerance is different, and the way of investment and financial planning and asset allocation is also different, investors must think carefully and do their homework, and then they can understand their own investment methods in the process of allocation and operation again and again, and grasp the general trend of the market in 2024 and enjoy the sweet fruits of passive investment.